Transcript World Energy Outlook and the Prospects for Sustainable Sources

World Energy Outlook and the
Prospects for Sustainable Sources
International Symposium on
Solar Energy from Space
September 8-10, 2009
Ontario Science Centre, Toronto, Canada
Dr. R. Bryan Erb
Messages
 Energy
demand will continue to grow strongly
 Alternatives to “Business as Usual” (BAU) can
limit emissions to acceptable levels
 Renewable sources will dominate
 Investments need to be large
 Strong environmental policies will be required
 Space Solar Power will be competitive
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Outline
 Concerns
 Drivers
for energy needs
 Current world energy situation
 Energy trends
 Approaches to stabilizing GHG emissions
Decarbonizing fossil fuels
 Expanding the use of renewables

 Renewables that
will be significant
 Investments
 Space
Solar Power will be competitive
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Concerns
 The
World Energy Outlook – Troubling! Why?
Continuing BAU will aggravate climate impacts
 Alternatives to present sources will be challenging
to implement at the needed scale
 Consumption will grow as population increases
and must grow to help those in energy poverty
 Food and fiber production must be increased
without damaging lands and biota
 Global energy infrastructure is so vast and
complex that change can come only slowly

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Drivers For Energy Needs
 Population
Currently 6.5 Billion
 Expect 10 B by 2050 and 11.6 B by 2100

 Economic
activity
Gross world product currently $38 Trillion
 Expect $75 B by 2050 and $200+ B by 2100

 Efficiency
of energy utilization
 Desire to reduce inequities in global energy
availability
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The Current World Energy Situation
 Will be
described by:

Total quantity of energy produced and its
distribution among major economic regions

Level of economic activity supported by this
quantity of energy

Sources of energy

Resource availability

Environmental implications
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Quantity of Energy and
Economic Activity
 World
Total Primary Energy Supply
(TPES) in 2006:
15,600 GWth
 Gross
World Product:
 Population:
 TPES
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6.5 Billion
per person:
 Carbon
$38 Trillion US
emissions:
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2.4 KWth
7,600 MtC
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TPES per Person by Region
Africa
Latin America
Asia (Ex China)
China
Non-OECD Europe
Former USSR
Middle East
OECD
World
0
2
4
6
8
KWth
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Primary Energy Sources - 2004
Nuclear
6.5%
Natural Gas
20.9%
Oil
34.3%
Renewables
13.3%
Coal & Peat
25.1%
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Hydro
2.2%
Traditional
10.6%
Others
0.5%
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Distribution of the 0.5% of “Others”
Tide
0.0004
Solar
0.039
Wind
0.064
Geothermal 0.414
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Resource Availability &
Environmental Implications
 Near
Term Resources:
“There are sufficient reserves of most types of
energy resources to last at least several
decades at current rates of use” … IPCC
 Environment: A major and growing issue
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Energy Trends
 Projections are based
on the scenarios of the
World Energy Council/IIASA and extend to 2100
 Drivers are:
Population – 10.06 Billion in 2050, 11.65 by 2100
 Economic Activity - $75 to 100 B depending on
scenario
 Technology choices - especially acceptability of coal
and nuclear

 Three broad
scenarios – A, high growth; B,
“business as usual”; C, ecologically driven
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Energy History and Projections
70,000
A
60,000
50,000
B
40,000
GWth
30,000
C
20,000
10,000
0
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
Year
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Representative Scenarios
 Three of
the WEC/IIASA scenarios chosen to
illustrate a range of possible energy futures:
B - BAU
A2 - highest emissions scenario
C1 - least use of nuclear
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Environmental Outlook
 Only
the “Ecologically-Driven” scenarios
reduce emissions significantly
 Net emissions of energy-related Carbon are
reduced to tolerable levels by 2100
 Atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2100
stabilizes in the range of 450 to 550 ppm
 This concentration should limit warming to
two to three degrees C
 Each of these has its own particular makeup
of energy sources
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Energy Share by Source - B
100%
Other
Biomass
80%
Solar
Nuclear
60%
Hydro
40%
Gas
Oil
20%
0%
1850
Coal
Traditional
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
Year
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Energy Share by Source - A2
100%
Other
Biomass
80%
Solar
Nuclear
60%
Hydro
40%
Gas
Oil
20%
0%
1850
Coal
Traditional
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
Year
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Energy Share by Source – C1
100%
Other
Biomass
80%
Solar
Nuclear
60%
Hydro
40%
Gas
Oil
20%
0%
1850
Coal
Traditional
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
Year
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Outlook for Resource Availability
 WEC
projects adequate resource availability
over the next 100 years, but foresees that a
shift in sources will be driven by:
Environmental impacts
 Economic recoverability of the resources

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Net Carbon Emissions from Energy
25000
20000
A2
15000
MtC
10000
B
5000
0
1990
2010
2030
2050
2070
2090
C1
Year
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Approaches To Stabilizing
GHG Emissions
 There are two
fundamental approaches on the
energy front:
Reducing the impact of fossil fuels, i.e.,
“Decarbonizing” them
 Expanding the use of renewables or nuclear

Note: there are other ways of influencing
climate, including various forms of
Geo/Climate engineering
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Decarbonizing Fossil Fuels
 Approaches
include:
Shifting to lower carbon fuels, e.g., gas vs. coal
 Improving the efficiency of use of such fuels
 Capturing and sequestering the carbon (CCS):
“upstream” in the supply process, or
 “downstream” in the utilization process

 These
measures are necessary but not
sufficient – major expansion in the supply
from renewable sources is vital
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Renewables
 Renewable sources include:
hydro, biomass,
solar, wind, geothermal and various forms
of ocean/tidal/wave energy
 Each has its own peculiar advantages and
drawbacks
 Only some can be exploited at a scale and
in a time frame that will make a significant
contribution
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Sources Viewed as Limited
 Hydro –
only modest scope for expansion
 Biomass – important for fuels, but limited by
competition for land
 Geothermal - locally important, but not a
large-scale source unless the “Engineered
Geothermal Systems” approach can be
developed successfully
 Ocean/tidal/wave - resources are immense
yet diffuse and expensive to exploit
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Nuclear Outlook
 Nuclear suffers
from concerns over public
acceptance, final waste management and
proliferation risk
 Little capacity is being added in the OECD
countries and some is being removed
 However, China, Russia and India have
ambitious programs
 More widespread use may be needed to meet
emissions targets
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Significant Renewables:
Solar and Wind
 Total
energy available from these sources is
immense, but the energy density is low
 Product is largely electricity, the most useful
form of energy
 The C1 scenario projects that these sources,
along with biomass for fuels, will be the
dominant sources of the future
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Electricity from Solar and Wind
18000
16000
Solar
14000
12000
TWh
r
10000
8000
Wind
6000
4000
2000
0
1990
2010
2030
2050
2070
2090
Year
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The Matter of Intermittency
 It
is critical to recognize that solar and wind
are intermittent sources and can be used
immediately by the power grid only to the
extent of 20 - 25% of production
 Solar
and wind can be more fully exploited
to meet base load needs if storage can be
provided or if the electricity is used to
generate hydrogen
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Electricity from Solar and Wind:
Extent of Immediate Use
Total
Electricity
50000
40000
Electricity from
Solar + Wind
30000
TWhr
20000
Stored
10000
25% of Total
0
1990
2040
2090
Year
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Cost Impact of Intermittency
 Solar
and wind installations with storage (to
serve base load needs) will be more expensive
than those providing peak power
 Capital
costs, by mid-century, of such plants is
estimated at ≈ $7000 per KWe
 Incremental
investment to accommodate this
intermittency is estimated at ≈ $1T per year
beginning around 2040 (just over 1% of GWP)
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Energy Investments
 Recent capital
expenditures ≈ 1% of GWP
 Implementing
energy scenarios that reduce
emissions significantly will be more costly
 Stern
Report documents cost estimates at
1% of GWP by 2050 to stabilize atmospheric
concentration of CO2 at 500-550ppm
 WEC notes costs unlikely to exceed 2% of
GWP
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Outlook for Space Solar Power
 Capital
costs for Space Solar Power
installations are estimated to be on the order
of $4000 per KWe
 If
terrestrial installations for solar and wind
providing base load power run $7,000 per
KWe and a Trillion dollars a year is needed to
build the needed capacity, then Space Solar
Power should be very competitive
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An Assessment
 Implementing
an energy future such as C1 will
be extremely challenging, requiring:
Enormous investments
 Strong environmental policies
 Continuing international cooperation for decades

 Consequences
of failing to follow such a path:
Serious climate impacts or
 Expansion of nuclear supply and/or
 Resort to more use of fossil fuels

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What Could Change This Picture?
 Cheaper
ways to store electricity
 Power grids
of international scale
 Economic
means of exploiting geothermal or
ocean energy
 Success
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in exploiting nuclear fusion
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Recommendations
 Promote a
better general understanding of
the world energy situation
 Support all plausible sources of sustainable
and clean energy, especially Space Solar
Power
 Support policy actions that reduce emissions,
importantly, putting a price on carbon
 Support policy actions that improve efficiency
 Start now
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Take Away
 Energy
demand will continue to grow strongly
 Alternatives to “Business as Usual” can limit
emissions to acceptable levels
 Renewable sources will dominate
 Investments need to be large
 Strong environmental policies will be required
 Space Solar Power will be competitive
SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
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