The Wider Black Sea Area Civil Security Cooperation

Civil Security as a tool for Security Sector Integration and Regional Cooperation in WBSA based on Civil Society Initiatives NATO ARW Bansko 5-9 April 2006 Dr. Velizar Shalamanov PPD SfP981149 CoE in Operational Analyses ( http://www.gcmarshall.bg/sfp981149/ ) In IPP-BAS This publication is supported by NATO’s Scientific Division in the framework of Science for Peace Program - Project SFP-981149 (2005-2007)

Acknowledgement

This publication is supported by NATO’s Scientific Division in the framework of Science for Peace Program - Project SFP 981149 (2005-2007) under implementation of

the study “The Shift from National to Civil/Societal Security: Towards Effective Transformation of the Security Sector,” supported by Bulgaria’s National Science Fund under contract VU-MI 103/2005 as one of the criteria of success for the SfP981149.

The study is conducted by an interdisciplinary research team with participants from the “G.S. Rakovski” Defense and Staff College, the Academy of the Ministry of the Interior, the Center for National Security and Defense Research at the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, and the Institute for Security and International Studies, all based in Sofia, Bulgaria and working as a partners of the CoE in OA under SfP981149.

Outline

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The Wider Black Sea Area Definition 2.

Change Management Concept in Security Area 1. From National Security to Civil Security 2. Transformation to Integrated Security Sector 3. Civil Security Concept Development and Scenario Generation for Experimentation: Bulgarian and GBSA/SEE Cases 3.

Experimentation of Concepts through CAX in Civil Security Area 1. Software Package for Crisis Management CAX.

2. Enterprise Architecture of JTSAC for CAX on Crisis Management 3. Architecture of Communications Infrastructure 4. Effective Management of Research Organizations / Projects 4.

JTSAC Support from CoE-OA

What is WBSA?

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Littoral states of the Black Sea?

Are Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan included?

What about Greece, Macedonia, Albania?

How SEEDM and GUAM are linked?

Is USA included with its forces footprint in some of the key countries – Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania as well as key role in SEEDM and new BSEC observer status?

Where are the borders and what is the interconnection with adjacent regions of Central Asia, Middle East, Gulf, greater Middle East?

Is there recognition in NATO, EU, US, Russia of the region as such?

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NATO’s Black Sea Region?

Bulgaria, Greece, Romania, Turkey!

USA is included with its forces footprint in some of the key countries – Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania as well as its key role in SEEDM, presence in Georgia?

The involvement of Albania and Macedonia as MAP countries The involvement of Ukraine and Georgia as new democracies

Ukraine Oil consumers, security providers Albania Romania Bulgaria Macedonia Greece USA Black Sea Turkey Russia Georgia

Oil fields, instability

Related “regions”

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Link with Central Europe (Romania) Link with the SEE (Bulgaria) Link with Caucasus (Georgia) and further with Central Asia (STANs) New borders with key regions (Turkey) NATO EU Russia and CIS as Euro-Asian sub-region

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Links Between BSR and Adjacent Regions

Link with Central Europe (Romania) Link with SEE (Bulgaria) Link with the Caucasus (Georgia) and further with Central Asia (STANs) New borders with key regions (Turkey) EU Russia NATO as a whole

Russia S.C.

NATO EU CE SEE Black Sea Region Central Asia Other key regions

Political future of WBSA

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Political landscape (CoE)

2. Maturity of the Civil Society (US) 3.

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Status of the Market Economy (EU) Wider framework of security (OSCE) Security Sector Institutions and Partnership for Security (NATO)

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BSEC role UN representation

Is there common vision for WBSA?

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About the region from outside From the region itself What about the leadership and will?

What about the faith in better future?

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short term

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long term

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What about the capacity?

Elements of the WBSA Security and Integration Plan

+ invest in democratic/legal market institutions + support organizational development of state/legal market institutions + support civil society development and maturity (coalitions) + motivate cooperation - block illegal capitals - suppress organizations of former secret services - block infiltration in NGOs of former secret services - block attempts for domination / isolation Need for internal agreement and will as well as external commitment

Invariant steps forward - I

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United efforts to fight strategic crime in the region based on networks of former secret services and trafficking channels Maintaining involvement of the region in the framework of total war against terrorism with larger cooperation in the WBSA Strengthening of the civil society basis, building of coalitions – locally and on regional Intensive regional cooperation with the involvement of NATO in education and training in order to motivate network centric, knowledge based influence to the future (US-NATO-EU with PfP Consortium and DCAF can play role)

Invariant steps forward - II

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Regional cooperation in emergency management – NATO, EU and SP/BSEC can play role SSR (transformation into integrated security sector) – to include not only military, but police, civil protection, special services, judiciary system (NATO and EU can play role with serious participation of GCDCAF) Consider the future of WBSA in larger context of the future of Europe and regions adjacent to Europe through WBSA when developing long-term strategy and implementation projects

NATO Focus

    Modalities for cooperation in NATO format – Bulgaria, Greece, Romania, Turkey and the US These modalities should be based on key NATO priorities: capabilities, interoperability, NRF, operations, partnership with neighbors.

NATO focus should take into consideration EU developments and OSCE / UN needs.

NATO should support regional initiatives – SEEDM, BLACKSEEFOR and even BSEC, Stability Pact for SEE (WT III)

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Opportunities for Cooperation

Education and Training – from MVLE to Virtual University / Civil Society Network of Security related NGO Research and Development – academic support of transformation through Center for Security and Integration in a Network of CoE on Transformation Support (NATO SC HSD Panel) Joint approach to emergency management under a common model of Civil Security in the region Common model for border security Joint approach to air and maritime security Multinational formations for expeditionary operations and NATO/US/EU military footprint in the region Agency for Joint Projects in Security Sector Transformation with EU/US participation especially for the smaller nations such as Albania, Bulgaria, Georgia, Macedonia, Moldova.

Regional Framework - NATO Framework

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WG with leading nation and participation of others.

Reporting to NATO through national missions.

Forming a NATO project with participation of other willing NATO countries outside the region.

Involvement of NATO agencies and working bodies.

Joint implementation through regional structures.

Extension to partners in the PfP/EAPC framework.

Coordination with other institutions.

Involvement of Other Institutions and Countries

  EU – Border security – Emergency management – Battle groups – EDA US – Joint training – Joint modernization projects – Joint deployment – Military presence

Emergency Management – Civil Security

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Strengthen joint approaches to emergency management and border security Critical infrastructure management and protection Develop a common concept of Civil Security in the region as a key part of the Euroatlantic Area Role of the SEE Council of CP Directors and BSI on CMEP Model of Bulgaria – Separate State Agency for Civil Protection under Member of the Cabinet, responsible for EM, but at the same time dealing with State Reserve, Refugees, Minorities, etc. – close cooperation with local administration.

Development of Civil Guard structures?

Model of IEMS (USTDA Project) and regular CAX/CPX/FX.

Security Environment

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Peace or War? – many studies accomplished and focus on CM identified Types of crisis we face:

1. Disasters / Catastrophes 2. Public Order / Security 3. Military / paramilitary operations – expeditionary ops 4. Threatened interests abroad Terrorism and organized crime / trafficking

Crisis Management

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Scope of risks activated to form the situation Speed of development of the situation Scope of citizens involved / impacted Scope of involved institutions (local, district, national, regional, global) Scope of required resources as quality and quantity Scope of legal norms activated Scope of the cooperation on the ground

From National Security to Civil Security: Strategic Review for Transformation to Integrated Security Sector  Establishing of National Academic SST Center between DSC, AMoI, CNSDR-BAS and GCMA-Bu  Development of Methodology for SST Support  Development of UCJTL for Crisis Management / Civil Security and Combined Joint Capabilities Planning

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Civil Security Concept –Citizen(s) and its Living Environment in the Center

Third Pillar of the Security Sector : Crisis Response and Emergency Management Service = Civil Security Organization Civil Society and Citizen: Third Factor in SSR to address Civil Security Balance between central power and local powers Balance between public and private component Balance between state component and volunteer components Balance between Civil Security Organization and MoD / MoI, other traditional security sector services Level of international cooperation

Building of Integrated Security Sector through Third Generation SSR White paper on Civil Security in Bulgaria presented in 2004 Concept for Protection of Population and National Economy as Civil Security Concept is supported in 2005/2006

Third Generation of SSR: Integrated Security Sector (ISS) focused on Civil Security    

Functional Challenge - responsibilities Structural Challenge – separate organization Operational Challenge – leading / support organization for different operations Capabilities Challenge – ownership of critical capabilities

Other specific challenges to ISS

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Program Management Challenge preparedness, response, recovery – for capabilities, for early warning, mitigation, Resource Management Challenge Legal Issues Organizational Issues C2 System Issue (NCO – network centric ops, NEC – network enabled capabilities) – integrated emergency management system (IEMS)

General challenges to ISS

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Civil Control Issue: Parliamentarian control of resources, operations, personnel policy International Cooperation Issue (SEE, BSCR / WBSA, NATO/PfP, EU, OSCE) – Code of Conduct and Cooperation on Emergency Management Change Management Issue (Transformation) of the security sector to address new missions and for regional cooperation

Key Role of Scenario Development in

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Concept Experimentation

Security Scenario Development NATO ARW, Boyana-2005, Bulgaria Methodology identified 2.

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Regional view tested Network Established but 1.

2.

Follow up is postponed Local owner is missed 3.

NATO, EU, US interest is limited Institutional approach similar to SEEGROUP SEECAP is needed for Civil Security – possible goal for NATO ARW, Bansko-2006, Bulgaria

Scenarios

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Set of events out of our control (NRBC, Medical, Seismological, Meteo & Hydrological) Vulnerabilities of population / infrastructure Universal CJ CM Task List Reaction forces – mission capabilities packages C4ISR for CM (Network of EOC) Scenario development, management and simulation Information collection and analysis (LL)

Academic Support to SST around Civil Security Concept

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Political and legal framework to guide and support integrated security sector: Strategic Review of the Security and Security Sector

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Enterprise Architecture Governance for third generation of SSR Methodology Tools for support of Enterprise Architecture Governance Methodology for third generation of SSR, including CAX

EU TACOM SEE-2006 as a Case

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Study on Civil Security Driven SST

Terrorist attack – disasters / catastrophes consequence management 2.

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New Emergency management (Civil Security Ministry) and its cooperation with MoD, MoI and other agencies for integrated response SEE Regional Cooperation and EU MIC, NATO EADRCC Bul Protection 2006, EU CME 06, NATO CMX 06 exercises integration Extension to WBSA and integration in PfP/EAPC and EU Neighborhood Policy

Software Package for Crisis Management CAX

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TACOM – National CM Center (NCMC) TACOM – District CM Center (DCMC) TACOM – Field CM Center (FCMC) TACOM – Agency CM Center (ACMC) TACOM – International POC (IPOC) TACOM – M&S Tools (MST) TACOM – Scenario Management (SM)

MOSEX Software package (

Mo

dules for

S

upport of

Ex

ercise)

Cells Control Exercise participants Static Script Preparation MOSEX-SS MOSEX-IPD Dynamic Script Exercise MOSEX-DS MOSEX-mail Exercise MOSEX-EC MOSEX-AE MOSEX-HLS MOSEX-MLS Situation Display Exercise MOSEX-MD MOSEX-EP

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JTSAC architecture

(IPP – BAS as base for JTSAC)

1 st floor: – CAX development rooms – Distaff rooms – National Crisis Management Center (training) – Computer Center – Communications / Forecast Center  2 nd floor – Briefing room – Coordination Cell – Press-Center – VIP hall – Refreshment site

Architecture of Communications Infrastructure

     External Comms Center – Other agencies – NATO, EU, UN, OSCE – Countries in the region Emergency Call Center Monitoring ad Forecast Center – Weather – Other critical factors Alert Center for Crisis Situations Network Control Center (including Information Assurance)

Comms for support of external elements of CAX (EU TACOM SEE-2006 case)

Effective Management

   Management of Research Organizations (CoE-OA case) Management of Research Projects (CM CAX case) Integration of NATO, EU, US and National Funding for Development of JTSAC-CS

JTSAC-IPP Organization Structure WG1 General Management Costing and analyses Planning and PR WG7 - Resources management and public relations WG2 Scenario - Documentation - Lessons learned - Certification - Briefings WG3 WG4 - Simulation and scenario development - Mathematical and software support - CAX configuration -JTSAC EOC management WG5 WG6 - Communications - Emergency calls - Alerting - Field Training Center - Administrative services attendance

National Base for Supporting Cooperation

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Strategy and Implementation Plan with Parliamentarian Support Office of Transformation Center of Operational Analyses (COA) to support CDE/ATD Acquisition Agency Involvement of National R&D / S&T Community Involvement of National Defense Industry Involvement of the other industries

JTSAC Support from CoE-OA for SST

(NATO SfP => EU FWP7) 1.

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Concept development and study of political / legal framework, scenario development with NATO ARW Architecture development and assessment with USTDA IEMS Feasibility Study CAX for experimentation, training, knowledge acquisition with EU TACOM SEE-2006 Change management: planning, costing, performance measurement, reporting with development of Ministry of State Policy on Disasters and Catastrophes (MSPDC) Knowledge management and education / training with DSC, AMoI, UNWE, SU and National Training Center Directorate of MSPDC

Where is the C ОА situated among other organizations?

Governance / Costumers Parliament President Government Security Council MoD MoI Civil Protection Costumers Other Agencies COA Change Management Institutes of BAS Universities Defense Industry Other Industries Back office Implementation / Competition

Where is the COA situated along the CDE/ATD process in support of transformation?

Concept development Transformation Process … => Experimentation Advanced Technology Demonstration Acquisition Office Training / CAX Acquisition Force Preparation Force Employment COA in CM Transformation Office Operations

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Regional (SEE/WBSA) Training, Simulation and Analysis Center on Civil Security

Step to Civil Security Coordination Center for WBSA Research in the Area of Civil Security and Concept Development Training, including ADL and CAX / Simulations for Experimentation Analysis and LL from Exercises Certification of personnel and teams Integration between MoDs, MoIs and Civil Protection Services (Emergency Management Ministries) using Academic Environment Joint venture – Administration / NGO, Universities, Academia Institutes; Regional players / NATO, EU, US

Regional JTSAC Implementation

   Strategy for development of Regional (SEE/GBSA) JTSAC – Civil Security (Civil Protection) as Bulgarian Contribution to EU/NATO/US efforts in SEE/GBSA in the Area of Emergency Management (CMEP) Bulgaria is active in drafting Black Sea Strategy of NATO. Bulgaria is chairing for two years BSEC well as in EU with MIC.

– WG “Civil Protection”, and is very active in NATO with EADRCC as For EU TACOM SEE-2006 in the Institute of parallel processing (IPP-BAS) the National Joint Training Simulation and Analysis Center (JTSAC) on Civil Security (Civil Protection) will be established and with Government commitment will be very easy to be promoted as Regional (SEE/GBSA) JTSAC – Civil Security (Civil Protection).

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Conclusions

Definition of WBSA Definition of Civil Security Definition of the Integrated Security Sector as a goal for Third Generation of SSR Academic Support to Transformation of the Security Sector to Integrated Network of Organizations on three levels Role of CAX in SST to ISS based on CS Concept JTSAC main tool for CAX support in change management Education for Change Management and Education for Reform Initiative) – key instrument for change management (link with PfP Consortium

Education for Change Management in Security Sector on Civil Security

(international master degree)

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National and International Security Course SSR and Integrated Security Sector Course Crisis Management and Civil Security Course EAG and CAX Course Program / Resource Management in Security Area Course Knowledge Management in Security Area Course Civil – Military Relations and Civil Control Course