Ontario perspective on bio-lubricants

Dr. Gregory Penner Soy 20/20 Project

Overview

• Motor oil production in Canada • The future for soybeans • Summary

Ontario produces 75% of Canada’s motor oil.

Other Alberta Ontario Quebec Atlantic 0 200 400 600 800

Annual production (M litres)

1,000

Ontario produces more lubricants than it consumes.

Other Alberta Ontario Quebec Atlantic 0 200 400 600 800 1,000

M otor oil (M litres)

Demand Production

Vegetable oils currently cost less than base motor oil.

$0.80

$0.75

$/Litre

$0.70

$0.65

(Cdn)

$0.60

$0.55

$0.50

G ro up I G ro up II G ro up II+ G ro up III So yb ea n o il C an ola o il

Capital investment in motor oil refining is occurring globally.

• Capital investment in petroleum refining capacity is occurring elsewhere.

– Korea, 350,000 tons of group III – Finland, 30,000 tons of group III – China, 400,000 tons from group I to groups II and III – Qatar, 1,500,000 tons of group I – U.S. 325,000 tons total across groups – Taiwan, 500,000 tons

Ontario chemical companies are interested in vegetable oil.

• Willing to lease existing blending facilities.

• Willing to co-explore market opportunities.

Soy 20/20 Project pushing for development of industrial soybean.

22.00% 21.00% 20.00% 19.00% 18.00% 17.00% 40% 39% 38% 37%

Protein percent

36% 35%

Soybean price is driven by protein.

$80.00

$60.00

$40.00

$20.00

$0.00

40% 39% 38% 37%

Protein content

36% 35% Decreasing protein content, even with increases in oil content results in less crush value.

What price point is required to change this?

• An increase of 15% in soybean oil price is necessary.

– This results in a price per litre of $0.65

– Higher than current canola price. • Higher value soybean oil – High in oleic acid

Is an industrial soybean realistic in the future?

• Yes if; – Canola prices are driven upward by demand for non-transfats.

– Market demand exceeds canola oil capacity to supply.

• In the absence of these events canola oil will out compete soybean oil in industrial markets.

Summary

• Motor oil will become a significant market opportunity for vegetable oils.

• Soy 20/20 Project supports the following; – Increased use of canola oil for industrial purposes – Development of industrial soybean varieties.

Industrial markets for current commodity crops is the only way to effectively increase Canadian crop farm profit margins.

We are not going to eat more, and the world is not going to pay more for food.