Transcript WTO Report - Niagara University

International Tourism
– A General Overview
World Tourism Organization
www.world-tourism.org
International Tourism
Market Size
International Tourist
Arrivals
689 million
(2001 figure)
Total Receipts:US$477 billion
Per Arrival: US$ 680
(2000 figure)
Share in world total (%)
Other
82%
Share in world total (%)
Other
42%
A sia and the
P acific
18%
Europe
58%
International tourist arrivals by region
2000
Change (%)
2001
Change (%)
Estimate
2001*/2000
(million)
growth
(million) 2000/1999 1990-2000
World
697.5
7.0
4.3
-1.3
688.5
Africa
27.6
4.3
6.3
3.2
28.5
Americas
128.3
5.0
3.3
-7.0
119.3
East Asia and the Pacific
110.6
14.3
7.3
3.8
114.9
Europe
403.2
5.7
3.6
-0.7
400.5
Middle East
21.2
12.3
9.0
-8.8
19.4
South Asia
6.4
11.2
7.4
-6.4
6.0
Source: World Tourism Organization (WTO) ©
(Data as collected by WTO January 2001)
8
International Tourism stalls in 2001
8.0
689
500
7.0
400
300
200
International Tourist Arrivals
(% change)
7.0
6.1
6.0
(% change)
(million)
International Tourist Arrivals
(volume)
800
698
652
700
628
586 610
600 552
5.0
4.1
4.0
3.7
3.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
100
-1.0
0
-2.0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001*
-1.3
96/95
97/96
98/97
99/98
00/99 01*/00
World’s Top five tourism destinations
International Tourist Arrivals
2000
est. 2001
Change (%)
(million)
2001*/2000
(million)
Rank
Market
Share (%)
1
France
75.6
1.2
76.5
11.1
2
Spain
47.9
3.4
49.5
7.2
3
United States
50.9
-12.6
44.5
6.5
4
Italy
41.2
-5.0
39.1
5.7
5
China
31.2
6.2
33.2
4.8
Source: World Tourism Organization (WTO) ©
(Data as collected by WTO January 2001)
First decrease in 2 decades
Growth of World Real GDP & international Tourist Arrivals
10
Tourist Arrivals
Average 1975-2000
% change over previous year
8
6
4
2
0
-2
1975
1980
echo of the second oil crisis
/ martial law in Poland /
Falklands conflict / conflict
Israel Lebanon
1985
Gulf War / disintegration
of Yugoslavia
1990
1995
Asian Financial Crisis
2000
World Tourism in 2001
characterized by:
11 September attacks on the United
States and the following response
World Tourism in 2001
characterized by:
• Global economic downturn affecting all
major economies at same time
Economic downturn already manifest
before 11 September
International Tourist Arrivals - Regional Trends
14.3
12.3
14
11.2
% change
12
9.9
10
7.0
8
6
4
7.3
4.3
9.0
6.3
7.4
6.1
4.3
2.8
5.7
5.0
3.6
3.3
1.7
2
1.2
0.3
0.3
Americas
Middle East
0
World
East Asia and
Africa
Europe
South Asia
the Pacific
1990-2000
2000/1999
Jan.-Aug. 2001*
Sharp contrast to 2000
2000 exceptional year for tourism:
overall positive conditions
• strong world economy
• relative calm political situation
• many big events: millennium celebration,
Holy Year, Olympic Games, European
championship soccer, Expo 2000 Hannover
• pent-up demand (in particular long-haul) after
Kosovo conflict in 1999 and ‘millennium fear’
Impact of the 11 September attacks
International Tourist Arrivals - Regional Trends
15
9.9
10
5
3.8
2.8
6.1
3.2
1.7
1.2
0.3
0.3
% change
0
-5
-1.3
-3.5
-10
-15
-10.9
-0.7
-6.2
-6.4
-7
-10.3
-8.8
-20
-25
-24
-30
-24
-30.2
-35
World
East Asia and the
Africa
Europe
South Asia
Americas
Middle East
Pacific
Jan.-Aug. 2001*
Sept.-Dec. 2001*
2001* all year
▲Destinations / segments relatively
less affected or that even benefited
▲ more domestic than international
▲ travel by car, coach, train
▲ rural tourism
▲ ski resorts
▲ camping
▲ bed and breakfast
What is the Current Situation?
• January – February 2002 – staggered
recovery
• Long haul - slower as a whole
• But package bookings in UK and Germany good
• BA, Hong Kong, Europe, USA
• Light at end of tunnel
Redistribution during Recovery
▼ Worst hit:
national airlines/cruises/MICE/upmarket
city hotels/large T.O.
▲ Quiet beneficiary:
country inns,specialised tour operators,
budget airlines, sports and culture tourism
What has changed?
▲ cost
▲ duration
▲ booking habits
▲ motivation
▲ product/promotion
Short-term forecast
• Pick up late 2002 and early 2003
• Vigorous revival in 2003
Most likely scenario 2002:
Mirror image of 2001
International Tourist Arrivals
% change over same month previous year
15
Observed evolution
2001
Expected evolution
2002
10
5
0
j
f
m
a
m
j
j
a
s
o
n
d
-5
-10
Source: WTO
-15
j
f
m
a
m
j
j
a
s
o
n
d
Short-term forecast
The bright spots:
• Republic of Korea
• China
Tourist Arrivals by Receiving Region,
1950- 2020
1.800
Actual
Forecasts
1.600
1.400
Million
1.200
1.000
800
South Asia
Middle East
Africa
East Asia/Pacific
Americas
Europe
600
400
200
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Tourism 2020 Vision - Forecasts
Tourist arrivals
(Million)
Tourism receipts
(US$ Billion)
2,000
1,561
565
455
1995
2020
1995
2020
World’s Top Destinations 2020
Country
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
China
France
United States
Spain
Hong Kong (China)
United Kingdom
Italy
Mexico
Russian Fed.
Czech Rep.
Tourist
arrivals
(Million)
130
106
102
74
57
54
53
49
48
44
%growth rate
Market
p.a.
share (%) 1995-2020
8.3
6.8
6.6
4.7
3.6
3.4
3.4
3.1
3.1
2.7
7.8
2.3
3.5
2.6
7.1
3.4
2.1
3.6
8.5
4.0