Transcript No Slide Title

EDA Consortium
Forecast Panel
Walden C. Rhines
CHAIRMAN & CEO
EDA Outlook Bright


Current semiconductor slowdown primarily driven by
global recession, inventory oversupply & systems sales
decline
Leading-edge fab capacity strong through 2004
—
300 mm Fab Status *
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
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


1 fab - Full Production
9 fabs - Ramping Up
3 fabs - Accepting Equipment
14 fabs - In Construction
13 fabs - Planned/but not in construction yet
Disintegration of communications market
driving innovation
* Source: Dataquest
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WCR, EDA Forecast Panel , January 2002
EDA Remains Stable in an Unstable
Market
EDA
IC
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
Q301
Q201
Q101
Q400
Q300
Q200
Q100
Q499
Q399
Q299
Q199
Q498
Q398
Q298
3
WCR, EDA Forecast Panel , January 2002
Q198
*Source: SIA & EDAC
Q497
Q397
Q297
Q197
Q496
Q396
Q296
Q196
Q495
Q395
Q295
Q195
-60%
EDA Forecast - Product & Maintenance
Product & Maintenance
Market Growth
$6,000
25.0%
Last Year’s Forecast
$5,000
20.0%
$3,000
10.0%
$2,000
5.0%
$1,000
0.0%
$0
-5.0%
Source: EDAC Market Statistics
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WCR, EDA Forecast Panel , January 2002
YR
97
YR
98
YR
99
YR
0
YR 0
0
YR 1 E
10
YR 2E
10
3
YR E
10
4
15.0%
Q
1'
98
Q
2'
98
Q
3'
98
Q
4'
98
Q
1'
99
Q
2'
99
Q
3'
99
Q
4'
99
Q
1'
00
Q
2'
00
Q
3'
00
Q
4'
00
Q
1'
01
Q
2'
01
Q
3'
01
$4,000
EDA: A Value Opportunity
01/04/02
Share Price
EDA, Roll-up
--
Mentor Graphics
P/E
2002
Mkt Cap/ Revenue
Last 4 Quarters
--
3.8
24.71
19.8
2.7
Cadence
22.00
20.3
3.9
Synopsys
57.99
29.3
5.3
Microsoft
68.90
58.2
13.5
Oracle
15.45
38.8
9.0
Siebel Systems
32.70
75.4
9.0
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WCR, EDA Forecast Panel , January 2002
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WCR, EDA Forecast Panel , January 2002