Transcript Demographics / Homeownership Questions in Oregon

Changing Demographics:
Impacts to Oregon and the U.S.
• Are demographic changes taking place?
– Changes in Racial / Ethnicity composition?
Richard Bjelland OHCS State Housing Analyst
(503) 986-0983 [email protected]
Presentation Definitions
• A person of Hispanic or Latino Ethnicity
may be of any race
• Minority represents any of the following:
– An individual of any race other than white only
– A multiracial individual
– A person of Hispanic or Latino Ethnicity
• Non-Minority or “white only” – A white
only non-Hispanic or Latino person
U.S. Hispanic Population and Race Distribution for Non-Hispanic Population
Demographic Changes - 1980 to 2000
1980
1990
2000
Percent of Percent of Percent of
Population Population Population
1980-1990
Percent
Change
Percent of
Increase
1990-2000
Percent
Change
Percent of
Increase
Total Population
100%
100%
100%
9.8%
Hispanics
6.4%
9.0%
12.5%
53.0%
34.9%
57.9%
39.6%
White*
79.6%
75.6%
69.1%
4.4%
35.5%
3.4%
19.6%
Black*
11.5%
11.7%
12.1%
11.9%
14.0%
16.2%
14.5%
American Indian & Eskimo*
0.6%
0.7%
0.7%
26.6%
1.7%
15.3%
0.8%
Asian and HPI*
1.5%
2.8%
3.7%
99.7%
15.7%
50.3%
10.7%
Other*
0.3%
0.1%
0.2%
-62.8%
-1.9%
87.8%
0.7%
Two or more races*
13.2%
1.6%
14.1%
U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census of population, 1980 to 2000.
* Non-Hispanic only; in 1980 and 1990 "Asians" includes Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders.
The 2000 Census also marked the first time that respondents were allowed to select more than one racial category.
On earlier Censuses, multiracial individuals were asked to chose a single racial category, or respond as Some Other
Race.
Source of US Population Growth 2000 to 2050
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2000 - 2050
2000 - 2010
2010 - 2020
2020 - 2030
2030 - 2040
-10%
Hispanic
Other race alone
White alone
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, Table 094
2040 - 2050
Primary Sources of California's Population Growth 1980 - 2000
90%
Hispanics may be of any race
79.7%
80%
White, Black, and Asian represent non-Hispanics of those races
70%
Percent of Population Growth
White in 2000 includes Two or more race individuals
60%
51.6%
Asian includes Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander
50%
40%
30%
23.9% 25.3%
20.8%
20%
10%
5.1%
2.2%
0%
Hispanics
-10%
White
-7.5%
Black
-20%
1980-1990
1990-2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census of population, 1980 to 2000.
Asian
California Population Change
Population
1990
Not H or L
Hispanic
or Latino
Total
2000
Increase
Growth Rate
1990-2000
1990-2000
22,072,083 22,905,092
833,009
3.8%
7,687,938 10,966,556
3,278,618
42.6%
29,760,021 33,871,648
4,111,627
13.8%
Not H or L
74.2%
67.6%
20.3%
Hispanic
or Latino
25.8%
32.4%
79.7%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census of population, 1990 to 2000.
California Demographics
• In 1970, 4 in 5 Californians were white;
now whites are in the minority – 44.5 %
• Only one in three children in California’s
public schools is white; 45 % are Latino
• In Los Angeles, only 10 % are white; 70 %
are Latino
• District F in LAUSD has 60,000 students;
98 % are minorities; and contains Belmont
High School - 5,500 students with a 40 %
graduation rate
Education 101 - The Economist Print Edition, April 29th, 2004
Oregon Minority Population
Minority
White not Hispanic
Total
1990 to 2000
Increase
1980
1990
2000
177,093
262,589
563,783
301,194
2,456,012
2,579,732
2,857,616
277,884
2,633,105
2,842,321
3,421,399
579,078
% Minority
6.7%
9.2%
16.5%
52.0%
% White not Hispanic
93.3%
90.8%
83.5%
48.0%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census of population, 1980 to 2000.
Woodburn's Population by Ethnicity
90%
81.8%
80%
68.6%
70%
% of Population
60%
49.9% 50.1%
50%
40%
31.4%
30%
20%
18.2%
10%
0%
1980
1990
Not Hispanic or Latino
2000
Hispanic or Latino
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census of population, 1980 to 2000.
Woodburn School District Demographics 1990 - 2005
4000
3562
3500
3000
September Enrollment
2664
185 %
2500
2000
1824
1500
1251
1031
1000
868
865
791
539
571
572
500
467
21
28
42
0
Major Culture
Hispanic
1990
Russian
1995
2000
Other
2005
56
Oregon Public School Minority Enrollment
Source: Oregon Department of Education - Oregon Report Card 2004-2005
90,000
80,000
Hispanic
70,000
51,094
188 % Increase
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
Black
1997-98
1998-99
Asian/OPI
1999-00
AIAN
2000-01
Hispanic
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
Oregon Public School White Enrollment
Source: Oregon Department of Education - Oregon Report Card 2004-2005
460,000
450,000
-12%
(46,080)
440,000
430,000
420,000
410,000
400,000
390,000
380,000
370,000
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
Components of Annual Population Growth by Decade, 1950 – 2000
Source: Portland State University’s Population Research Center
Oregon
Immigrants Disperse to New Growth States
Percent Distribution of Oregon’s Foreign Born by Region
1.6
1.7
5.9
18.8
44.6
Latin America
Asia
Europe
Northern America
Africa
Oceania
27.3
Oregon’s Foreign Born as a percent of Total Population in 2000 - 8.5 %
Percent change in the foreign-born population: 1990 -2000 - 108 %
in 2005
(10.5 million) 28%
(11.1 million) 30%
(1.3 million) 3%
(11.5 million) 31%
(2.6 million) 7%
SOURCE: Pew Hispanic Center 2005 study
Resident Births and Deaths in Oregon
Births
Total
1981
42,974
1,146
41,828
2.7%
1991
42,458
3,278
39,180
7.7%
2001
45,318
7,903
37,415
17.4%
30,128
430
29,698
1.4%
15,190
7,473
7,717
49.2%
Deaths
2001
2001
Natural
Increase
Hispanic Non-Hispanic % Hispanic
Oregon Vital Statistics Annual Report 2001 Volumes 1 & 2
Census 2000 - Oregon
Persons per
Population Households
HH
Not Hispanic or Latino 3,146,085
Hispanic or Latino
Total
Not Hispanic or Latino
Hispanic or Latino
1,270,016
2.48
275,314
63,707
4.32
3,421,399
1,333,723
2.57
92.0%
95.2%
8.0%
4.8%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census of population - 2000.
Source of Oregon's Population Growth 1980 to 2005
Source: U.S. Census Bureau - Census 1980,1990, 2000 and 2005 American Community Survey
70%
60%
59.1%
48.0%
% of Growth
50%
47.4%
39.0%
40%
28.1%
30%
23.9%
22.4%
18.5%
20%
10%
1980
93.3%
1980
2.5%
1990
90.8%
1990
4.0%
1980
4.2%
1990
5.3%
2000
8.0%
2000
83.5%
13.6%
2000
8.4%
0%
1980-1990
White
1990-2000
Hispanic
2000-2005
NonHispanic Minority
Oregon 8 County Population Change 2000-2005
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Census 2000 and 2005 American Community Survey
60,000
70% of Oregon’s population live in these 8 counties
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
Benton
Clackamas
Jackson
Lane
Marion
Multnomah
Washington
Yamhill
(10,000)
Total Population
White alone Not Hispanic
Hispanic
NonHispanic Minority
Percent of Population Growth 2000-2005
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Census 2000 and 2005 American Community Survey
80%
70.3%
Percent of population growth
70%
60%
50%
40%
47.4%
45.3%
39.0%
37.3%
30%
24.8%
17.5%
20%
13.6%
10%
4.9%
0%
Oregon
White alone
8 Counties
Hispanic
28 Counties
NonHispanic Minority
Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Population Change by Race and Hispanic or Latino Origin for the United States:
April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2005
Race and Hispanic or Latino origin
Total
population
change*
Natural Increase
Total
Births
Deaths
Net
International
Migration
TOTAL POPULATION
14,985,802
8,651,861
21,329,804
12,677,943
6,333,941
.One Race
14,304,500
8,048,543
20,649,216
12,600,673
6,256,173
..White
9,748,454
5,474,702
16,288,560
10,813,858
4,274,278
..Black or African American
2,204,470
1,710,544
3,236,557
1,526,013
493,542
199,150
150,041
209,152
59,111
49,171
2,098,350
682,925
878,407
195,482
1,415,274
54,076
30,331
36,540
6,209
23,908
681,302
603,318
680,588
77,270
77,768
10,370,378
6,039,297
16,917,720
10,878,423
4,331,515
2,619,127
2,098,756
3,645,928
1,547,172
519,704
228,539
164,497
267,035
102,538
63,893
2,369,911
905,818
1,124,585
218,767
1,463,859
82,876
46,839
62,160
15,321
36,279
HISPANIC OR LATINO ORIGIN
7,380,846
4,123,268
4,685,371
562,103
3,257,595
WHITE ALONE, NOT HISPANIC OR LATINO ORIGIN
2,789,441
1,601,513
11,888,320
10,286,807
1,188,483
HISPANIC OR LATINO ORIGIN % of Change
49.3%
47.7%
22.0%
4.4%
51.4%
WHITE ALONE, NOT HISPANIC OR LATINO ORIGIN %
18.6%
18.5%
55.7%
81.1%
18.8%
..American Indian and Alaska Native
..Asian
..Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander
.Two or more races
.Race alone or in combination:(1)
..White
..Black or African American
..American Indian and Alaska Native
..Asian
..Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander
(1) 'In combination' means in combination with one or more other races. The sum of the five race groups adds to more than the total population because individuals may
report more than one race.
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau
Estimated U.S. Population Change July 1, 2003 to July 1, 2004
Total
Change
Total Population
Hispanic
Change
2,866,428 1,420,469
White NH Hispanic % White NH %
Change
of Change of Change
515,736
49.6%
18.0%
.Under 18 years
227,852
417,063
(297,921)
183.0%
NA
18 to 44 years
225,011
541,924
(576,050)
240.8%
NA
45 to 64 years
2,063,055
357,343 1,258,720
17.3%
61.0%
.65 years and over
350,510
104,139
130,987
29.7%
37.4%
.85 years and over
141,383
15,229
103,850
10.8%
73.5%
NA - Not applicable since White Non-Hispanic population change was negative
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau
Changing Demographics:
Impacts to Oregon and the U.S.
• Are demographic changes taking place?
– Changes in Racial / Ethnicity composition?
– Changes in Age and Sex Distributions?
Child-bearing
years
Child-bearing
years
Changing Demographics:
Impacts to Oregon and the U.S.
• Are demographic changes taking place?
• What are impacts of demographic changes?
Source: Pew Hispanic Center Study - Suro and Passel
Source: Pew Hispanic Center Study - Suro and Passel
Percent of Oregon Students Meeting Reading Standards in 2004
Source: Oregon Department of Education - Oregon Report Card 2003-2004
100%
90%
87%
86%
78%
80%
74%
70%
63%
60%
55%
52%
51%
50%
40%
35%
30%
27%
22%
20%
13%
10%
0%
White
Asian/PI
AIAN
3rd Grade
Black
10th Grade
Hispanic
Special Ed
Percent of Oregon Students Meeting Mathematics Standards in 2004
Source: Oregon Department of Education - Oregon Report Card 2003-2004
90%
85%
85%
80%
73%
71%
70%
63%
58%
60%
50%
57%
47%
40%
30%
25%
19%
20%
17%
11%
10%
0%
White
Asian/PI
AIAN
3rd Grade
Black
Hispanic
10th Grade
Special Ed
Changing Demographics Impacts on Educational Attainment
An Example of Impacts Under the Following Assumptions
Past
High
School
Students
High School
Graduation
Rate
%
Graduating
High School
% HS
Graduates
Obtaining
College
Degree
% College
Graduates
of All High
School
Students
% of All HS
Students
not
Graduating
High School
Hispanic
10%
55%
5.50%
15%
0.83%
4.50%
NH Minority
10%
70%
7.00%
25%
1.75%
3.00%
White NH
80%
80%
64.00%
40%
25.60%
16.00%
28.18%
23.50%
Total
100%
76.50%
Future (using California's current student ratios)
Hispanic
45%
55%
24.75%
15%
3.71%
20.25%
NH Minority
22%
70%
15.40%
25%
3.85%
6.60%
White NH
33%
80%
26.40%
40%
10.56%
6.60%
18.12%
33.45%
Total
In this
scenario
100%
66.55%
* 36% decrease in percent graduating from college
* 42% increase in percent of students not graduating high school
The reality of Latino Youth in the
United States
• Only 50% of the Latino Students graduate
from high school. In Oregon the percentages
are even lower.
• A Latino Youth that drops-out of High School
earns around $6,500 dollars a year.
•
Source: EducationTrust.org
US Labor supply, 1950 to 2000 and Projected Labor supply, 2000-2050
Labor Supply
in millions
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
62.2
69.6
82.8
106.9
125.8
140.9
157.7
164.7
170.1
180.5
191.8
Change
in millions
Baby boomers
retire
7.4
13.2
24.1
18.9
15.1
16.8
7.0
5.4
10.4
11.3
Source, 2000 to 2050, Toossi, MLR, May 2002, table 5; 1950-1990
http://www.census.gov/statab/hist/02HS0029.xls
Hispanics in the U.S. Labor Force - 2000 to 2020
Labor Force
Hispanic
Hispanics Non-Hispanics
% of Total
2000 (in 000's)
16,307
125,462
11.5%
2020 (in 000's)
28,901
137,029
17.4%
2000-20 change
12,594
11,567
52.1%
2000-20 % change
77.2%
9.2%
Source: Pew Hispanic Center Study - Suro and Passel
Oregon Per Capita Income as Percent of White Only Per Capita Income
100%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2005 American Community Survey
100%
89%
90%
Percent of White Only
80%
70%
62%
62%
60%
60%
50%
46%
44%
43%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
White Only
Hispanic
Black
AIAN
Asian
NHOPI
Other
Two or more
Tax Impact of Oregon White vs. Hispanic Median Family Incomes
White NH MFI - $55,522 * Hispanic MFI - $31,386 *
White
Hispanic
Two parents
Two parents
Revenue
one child
two children
difference
Taxable Income Line 37
55,522
31,386
Tax Line 44
4,659
858
Child Care Credit
600
858
Child Tax Credit 1000*#
1,000
2,000
Earned income credit
0
1,240
Net Federal Tax / (Credit)
3,059
(3,240)
(6,299)
Oregon Taxable Income
48,918
27,841
Oregon Tax
4,034
2,135
Exemption credit 153*#
462
616
Earned income credit 5%
0
62
Child Care Credit
0
300
Net Oregon Tax before WFCCC
3,452
1,157
Working Family Child Care Credit
0
3,830
Net Oregon Tax / (Credit)
3,452
(2,673)
(6,125)
Soc Sec / Medicare 7.65%
4,247
2,401
(1,846)
Total Taxes / (Credits)
10,758
(3,512)
(14,270)
* Source: 2005 American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau
Taxable income is earned income, children are in child care and standard deduction
2005 Tax Returns were used to calculate tax liabilities / credits
Projected U.S. Employment and Persons 65 and Over
(in 1000s)
180,000
164,151
160,000
152,675
27%
140,000
129,722
120,000
100,000
80,000
101%
60,000
40,000
70,319
52,733
34,992
20,000
0
2000
2020
Employed labor force
2030
Population 65 and over
America’s
Perfect Storm
Irwin Kirsch
ETS
National Press Club
Washington, D.C.
February 5, 2007
Confidential and Proprietary. Copyright © 2007 by Educational Testing Service. All rights reserved.
Three Forces Are Changing Our Nation’s Future
• Inadequate literacy and numeracy skills
among large segments of our student and
adult populations
• An ongoing shift in the demographic profile of
our population, powered by the highest
immigration rates in nearly a century
• The continuing evolution of the economy and
the nation’s job structure, requiring higher
levels of skills from an increasing proportion
of workers
Confidential and Proprietary. Copyright © 2007 by Educational Testing Service. All rights reserved.
Literacy surveys conducted by ETS have represented literacy
along scales divided into 5 levels. National and international
committees have judged that skills in Levels 3 and higher are
needed for participation in modern societies.
National Adult Literacy Survey (NALS, 1992)
Less Proficient
More Proficient
Confidential and Proprietary. Copyright © 2007 by Educational Testing Service. All rights reserved.
Average literacy scores are expected to decline between
1992 and 2030, with an increase in the amount of inequality.
70 million increases
to 119 million
in 2030
Less
Proficient
Less Proficient
More
MoreProficient
Proficient
Confidential and Proprietary. Copyright © 2007 by Educational Testing Service. All rights reserved.
Half of America’s adults lack literacy skills needed
for the 21st century.
100
80
Percentage of Adults 16-65 Years Old at:
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Levels 4/5
60
17
40
13
20
35
9
3
30
3
20
14
0
20
20
40
41
12
28
33
49
30
32
33
44
60
33
80
100
All Adults
Asian
Black
Hispanic
Confidential and Proprietary. Copyright © 2007 by Educational Testing Service. All rights reserved.
White
Average earnings of men 20-29 years of age have decreased
for all except those attaining the highest levels of education,
resulting in greater inequality.
1973
1989
2004
% Change
$27,618
$22,852
$20,700
-25
<12 yrs, no diploma
22,686
15,998
16,000
-30
HS diploma/GED
30,819
22,854
21,000
-32
13-15 years
28,018
26,756
25,000
-9
Bachelor’s degree
35,390
36,565
35,000
-1
Master’s or higher
40,826
38,088
45,000
10
ALL
Education
Note: Earnings are in 2004 dollars.
Confidential and Proprietary. Copyright © 2007 by Educational Testing Service. All rights reserved.
Major Demographic Impacts
• Racial/ethnic composition of public school students
changing rapidly in Oregon
• Minority population generally less educated with
lower earnings capacity
• White educated Baby Boomers begin retiring in 2010
• Work force growth will mostly come from minority
population - primarily Hispanic
• Federal and state revenue will be negatively
impacted unless minority earnings increase
• Ratio of workers to retired persons is decreasing putting pressure on retirement plan funding
Demographic Conclusions
• U.S./Oregon is rapidly changing from primarily a
majority nation of white non-Hispanic persons to a
racially and ethnically diverse population
• Hispanic/Latino and Asian populations are the
fastest growing; white only beginning to decrease
• Hispanic/Latino population increases now account
for half of U.S. population growth
• Planning and policy decisions in education, work
force development, housing, social services, etc.
need to anticipate and accommodate these changes
Changing Demographics:
Impacts to Oregon and the U.S.
•
•
•
•
Are demographic changes taking place?
What are impacts of demographic changes?
Where do Oregonians live?
View this presentation at
www.ohcs.oregon.gov/OHCS/PPR_Demogr
aphics.shtml
Richard Bjelland OHCS State Housing Analyst
(503) 986-0983 [email protected]