Transcript FSU Center for Economic Forecasting and Analysis (CEFA

FSU Center for Economic Forecasting
and Analysis (CEFA) Economic
Impact Study for the GFMC
By
Dr. Tim Lynch, Director
Dr. Julie Harrington, Asst. Director
Presented to the Gulf of Mexico Fishery
Management Council
March 11, 2003
Mobile, AL
CEFA Background
• The Florida State University Center for
Economic Forecasting and Analysis (CEFA)
specializes in applying advanced, computer-based
economic models and techniques to examine and
help resolve pressing public policy issues across a
spectrum of research areas. CEFA provides
advanced research and training in the areas of
high technology, commercialization of super
conducting materials, health care, energy, and
environmental economics, among others.
Background of Primary
Investigator(s)
•
•
•
Dr Lynch earned BS degrees in economics and political science, MS in
Environmental/Transportation Planning and a Ph.D in Environmental
Economics from FSU; Dr. Harrington earned a BS in Fish and Wildlife
Management from Montana State University, MS in Fisheries, and Ph.D in
Economics (Agricultural) from Auburn Univ.
Dr Lynch worked on developing regulatory preservation plans for the Florida
Keys, Big Cypress, Everglades and Green Swamp Area of Critical State
Concern. He also served as Florida’s Chief Environmental Economist at DER
and worked on regulatory economic evaluations of above and underground
water and wetland protection, energy production, use and distribution and air
pollution socio-economic impact assessments.
Dr Lynch has led and cooperated on a number of extensive environmental
economics research projects including El Nino economic assessments, air and
water quality and impact assessment studies, Florida Everglades restoration
studies, valuation of eco-tourism in Florida, energy economics evaluation and
advanced transportation and emerging energy technologies environmental,
energy and economic impacts.
Sample of CEFA Projects
 Research and economic analysis of high tech (super
conducting) materials and advanced power systems with FSU
Center for Advanced Power Systems (CAPS) and the Office of
Naval Research (ONR), and the future of the electricity
industry through participation on the Governor’s Florida
Vision 2020 Commission
 Economic analysis of Coastal Ocean Observing Systems
(COOS) with NOAA
 Detailed study comparing Florida and US cities with the New
Economy High Tech Index
 Economic analysis of University Research Centers and
Institutes
 Study on the economic impact of Florida’s outdoor
advertising industry
 Non-profit work including annual economic analysis of the
North Florida Birding Festival
Proposal Genesis
• Late 2002, a request was made from
GFMC via Office of Research/FSU to
CEFA/FSU to conduct an economic
impact/value study of commercial and
recreational fisheries in the Gulf of
Mexico Region (Florida, Alabama,
Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas).
Summary of Proposed
Research
• Evaluation of the existing research studies
and literature on the economic impact and
value of commercial and recreational
fisheries in the Gulf of Mexico region.
• Conduct an economic impact study using
existing data sources. Economic impacts will
be estimated using IMPLAN. Results will be
in terms of direct, indirect, induced and total
impacts for GRP, employment, and income.
Economic Value
•
•
Economic value refers to the price
individuals are willing to pay for a
good or service.
Total value = market (spending,
sales/output, income, employment,
tax revenues) + non-market (direct,
indirect and passive use) values.
Economic Analysis
• Methods of economic analysis include:
• Cost-Benefit Analysis
• Economic Impact Analysis
• Cost Effectiveness Analysis
• Natural Resource Damage
Assessment
Methods of Measuring Economic
Value When Markets
Don’t Exist
• Travel cost method – have been used in the area of recreation.
• Hedonic Pricing – involves comparing property prices (or wage
rates) to assess values.
• Random Utility Models – (multiple travel cost model) involves
making choices among alternatives.
• Contingent Valuation – involves directly surveying the user,
and asking what is the resource worth?
• Benefits Transfer – involves mining the technical literature and
applying previous studies data and models and making
necessary adjustments to current study. It is often used when
time and money are not available for a full blown valuation
study.
Non-Market Values
Consumer Surplus: Section A: Economic value a consumer receives over
and above what they pay for it. (additional value attributable to natural
resources).
Producer Surplus: Section B: Profit a business receives over the return on
investment. (additional value attributable to natural resources).
Examples of Use Value Per Unit of Time
for Recreational/Other Natural
Resources in Florida (in 1998 Dollars)
Author/Date
WTP/Day Method
Site/Kind
User
(Dollars)
R=Res, V=visitor
Leeworthy, 1997
$69 TCM Florida Keys
R/V
Milon&Apogee,1996
$1.76 TCM Indian River/Redfish
R
McConnell&Strand,1994
$107 RUM All Florida/All Species
R/V
Green,1984
$70 CVM All Florida/All Species
V
Bell &Leeworthy, 1981
$69 CVM All Florida/All Species
V
Bell &Leeworthy, 1981
$52 CVM All Florida/All Species
R
Geen et al., 1992
$810 TCM Gulf of Mexico/Reef Fish
R/V
Proposed Project Outcomes
Final Report Will Include:
• Compilation of existing pertinent
fisheries economics literature including
research summaries and results in 2003
dollars.
• Economic impact analysis of
recreational and commercial fisheries
(IMPLAN) results for the Gulf of
Mexico region.