Transcript Slide 1

CLIMATE CHANGE AND INDIA’S
ENERGY POLICY
DR. ANSHU BHARADWAJ
CENTER FOR STUDY OF SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY & POLICY, BANGALORE
ASIAN CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY : TRENDS AND POLICY
JULY 22, 2011
INDIA’S PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION :
A SNAPSHOT
In 2010 alone, India’s primary energy consumption grew by 9.2%
CSTEP July 2011
Source : BP statistical review of world energy, 2011; CSTEP
INDIA'S ENERGY ASPIRATIONS
• Annual GDP growth projection : 8 – 9%
• Elasticity of electricity : GDP ~ 0.95
• Net electricity generation required in 2020 : 1850 billion units
– per capita electricity consumption in 2020 : ~ 1200 kWh
– Still, well below world average of 2800 kWh
• India has announced intent to reduce CO2 intensity: GDP by 20-25% from
2005 levels by 2020
• Multiple objectives for Indian energy policy
– Access for all
– Reliability
– Low cost
– Low carbon
– Energy Security
CSTEP July 2011
ELECTRIC POWER
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Current Capacity : 173,855 MW (utility)
– 5th largest in the world
Low per capita electricity consumption
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India
US
China
World
717 kWh
14,000 kWh
2500 kWh
2800 kWh
Peak shortage ~ 15%
800,000 MW in 2030 – 40
– ~ 25,000 MW per year
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Environmental concerns
– India 3rd largest emitter of CO2 behind China and US
– 38% of emissions from power sector
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Energy security concerns
– 67% power from coal-based thermal plants - need to depend on imports
– Prototype breeder reactors to exploit thorium reserves
CSTEP July 2011
ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS :
GHG EMISSIONS IN INDIA (2007)
CSTEP July 2011
ENERGY RESOURCE AVAILABILITY IN INDIA
Source
Capital cost
(crores/MW)
Emissions
(t CO2-eq/Mwh)
Reserves
Longevity
Coal
4-5
1.1
10 5820 MT
70 years
Oil
2.5
0.62
1200 MT
~ 10 years
Gas
3.5
0.47
1.5 TCM
~ 20 years
Hydro
6- 20 (Site and
size dependant)
0
148.7 GW
NA
Nuclear
8-13
0
70,000 tonnes of
Uranium
~ 200 tonnes of Pu
40 years with Uranium
Source : BP statistical review report, NHPC,NTPC
CSTEP July 2011
ENERGY SECURITY CONCERNS
Source : Telegraph, FT
CSTEP July 2011
PROJECTED FUEL MIX IN 2020
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Required capacity in 2020 assuming 8% growth = 387,280 MW in BAU
scenario
CSTEP July 2011
Source : Interim report, Planning commission 2011
HOW TO GROW AND BE SUSTAINABLE?
• How do we grow to ~ 2,000 billion kWh by 2020
• How do we get 3,00 billion kWh of low-carbon power?
• What fuel options & technologies?
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Wind
Nuclear,
Solar
Hydro
Bio-fuels
Carbon Sequestration
Hydrogen & fuel cells
Hybrid cars
• Investments, research, policies?
CSTEP July 2011
WIND POWER
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Power proportional to V 3
India - 5th in wind capacity
Cost of generation reasonable: ~ Rs 3 per
kWh
– Economics sensitive to wind speeds
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World total installed 194,000 MW
India:
– Potential: 50,000 MW based on hub height
of 50 m and 2% land usage
– Recent studies offer reassessed potential
at 80m 6-7% land usage
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Onshore - 676, 000 MW
Offshore - 214,000 MW
– Intermittent; grid stability is a concern
CSTEP July 2011
China
44, 733 MW
US
40,180 MW
Germany
27,215 MW
Spain
20,676 MW
India
13,000 MW
SOLAR POWER
• JNNSM launched in 2010 targets 22,000 MW by 2022
– Phase 1 ( until March 2013)
• Target of 1300 MW : 800 MW PV and 500 MW CSP
• 25 years of guaranteed feed in tariff
– Off-grid PV
• Target of 2000 MW by 2022
• Rural applications where grid is unviable or unreachable
– Challenges
• High nominal cost of generation : ~ Rs 15 per kWh
• Water scarcity issues for CSP
• Requirement of skilled personnel
CSTEP July 2011
NUCLEAR POWER
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Installed Capacity
Generation
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Domestic Uranium reserves
– Poor quality ore
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4780 MW
~ 23 Billion kWh
(2.5 % of total)
~ 61,000 Tons
(0.01% - 0.05% Uranium)
Large Thorium deposits
– But, Thorium is fertile and has to be converted to fissile U233 in a reactor
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Phase Nuclear Program
– Phase I
– Phase II
– Phase III
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Build Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors using domestic Uranium
Reprocess spent fuel from Phase I to get Plutonium for Breeder Reactors
Use U233 (obtained from Thorium) and use it with Plutonium
Domestic Uranium reserves can sustain 10,000 MW PHWR for 40 years
– Low capacity factors due to Uranium mining constraints
CSTEP July 2011
INDIAN NUCLEAR POWER PROGRAM
Type
Operating
Projections
(2020)
Projections
(2030)
Heavy Water
Reactors
4,460 MW
10,000 MW
10,000 MW
Light Water
Reactors
320 MW
9,300 MW
22,000 MW
Fast Breeder
Reactors
-
1,500 MW
1,500 MW
4780 MW
20,800 MW
33,500 MW
Total
Nuclear capacity presently under construction : 5300 MW
CSTEP June 2011
ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS :
COMPARISON
CSTEP July 2011
Source : LBNL, CERC , CSTEP & NPCIL
DEMAND-SIDE MEASURES : SMART GRIDS
• Indian Institute of Science & CSTEP
– “Smart grid” test bed in IISc campus
– Consortium of technology provider companies
• Ministry of Power (under R-APDRP)
BIOFUEL POTENTIAL
• India’s total land area
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Cultivated
Cultivable wasteland
Rice
Wheat
328 million hectares (mha)
142 mha
30 mha
40 mha
26 mha
• Hazardous to divert agricultural area for bio-fuels.
• If entire wasteland used for growing bio-fuels,
– Produce about 30 million tons of bio-oil
– 10% of oil demand by 2031.
• Advisable to cultivate on such a large area?
CSTEP July 2011
ETHANOL OPPORTUNITIES
• Increase yield of sugarcane using drip irrigation & fertigation
– Present average yield
– Using drip irrigation & fertigation
~ 80 tons per ha
150 tons per ha
• Sweet sorghum:
– Less water intensive than sugarcane
– Two crops a year
• Cellulosic ethanol from agro-forest residues such as bagasse,
rice husk, wood chips, crop residues.
– Technology needs to be developed
CSTEP July 2011
WHAT CAN 1 HECTARE DO?
Option 1
Sugarcane
Option 2
Corn Ethanol
Option 3
Jatropha
Option 4
Option 5
Sweet Sorghum Solar
Sugarcane:
80 tons
Corn Yield:
7500 Kg per
hectare
2000 to 3000
Trees per
hectare
No Sugar
Cane juice used
to make
ethanol.
Ethanol:
Seed yield:
0.37 Liter per kg 1 to 2 Kg per
tree
Stalk yield:
Averageuse
daily
Bio-Fuels indirectly
35 – 50
tonsenergy
per radiation:
solar
hectare
5- 6 kWh/m2
days of
Why not do 250
it directly?
sunshine
Juice Extraction
Solar
45 – 50%
50% area
covered by PV
panels
Ethanol:
6000 Liter per
hectare
2800 Liter per
hectare
Oil Yield:
1 to 1.5 Ton per
hectare
CSTEP July 2011
Ethanol:
2500 to 3500
Liters per
hectare
10% Efficiency
of solar cells
LAND REQUIRED(HA/1000 MW)
Source : NPCIL & CSTEP
CSTEP July 2011
POTENTIAL R&D DOMAINS
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New and affordable materials for photovoltaic
Clean coal technologies; carbon capture and sequestration
Low-speed wind power
Cellulosic ethanol
Efficient and affordable hybrids, electric vehicles
Energy storage – efficient batteries and condensers
Demand side management of power
Trained human resource
CSTEP July 2011