Transcript Slide 1

ELECTRICITY FOR A BETTER LIFE
INDONESIA
Geothermal Power Plants
in the 2nd Phase 10,000 MW Project
APEC ENERGY BUSINESS
FORUM
17 November 2009
OUTLINE
ELECTRICITY FOR A BETTER LIFE
1
Indonesian Electricity Update
2
Geothermal under the 2nd 10,000 MW
Projects
3
4
How to Accelerate GPP Development
Pipe Line for GPP Development
POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2008 - 2018
ELECTRICITY FOR A BETTER LIFE
1. Average electricity demand growth is estimated 9.7%/year. Based
on assumption of GDP 6.2%/year, with elasticity = 1.56. Electricity
demand by 2018 will be 325 TWh.
2. Targeted Electricity Ratio by 2018 will be 95.5%.
3. Total New Power Plant Built will be 57,442 MW, while PLN will
contributes 35,274 MW (61 %) and IPP will be 22,168 MW (39 %).
4. Requires Additional Investment at USD 55.63 billion; consists of
USD 37.56 billion for Generation; USD 9.52 billion for
Transmission and USD 8.55 billion for Distribution
5. New Built for Geothermal will be 5,006 MW. PLN is planned to
contribute 1,015 MW (20 %) while IPP = 3,991 MW (80 %).
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Projection of Electricity Demand Growth
ELECTRICITY FOR A BETTER LIFE
Energy Demand
- Indonesia
- Jawa-Bali
- Outside Jawa-Bali
Growth
- Indonesia
- Jawa-Bali
- OutsideJawa-Bali
Electrification Ratio
- Indonesia
- Jawa-Bali
- OutsideJawa-Bali
Unit
2008
2009
2010
2012
2014
2018
TWh
128.9
100.9
28.0
138.7
107.8
30.9
153.1
119.0
34.1
186.2
144.6
41.6
225.4
174.9
50.5
325.2
250.9
74.3
%
6.5
5,6
9.9
7,6
6,8
10.4
10.4
10.3
10.6
10.2
10.2
10,2
9.8
9.7
10.2
9.4
9.2
10.0
63.1
67.1
56.1
65.1
69.2
58.1
67.6
71.9
60.2
72.6
77.7
64.2
77.9
83.8
68.2
88.7
96.0
77.1
%
- Outside J & B grows higher than in J & B
- Growth in J & B is required to support the GDP Growth
in the area (most industries located in J & B)
- Targeted electrification ratio in outside J & B is at 77 %
by year 2018
Projection Fuel Mix
ELECTRICITY FOR A BETTER LIFE
• Contribution of Renewable energy will gradually
increased to replace Oil.
• Contribution of coal PP is targeted to maintain capacity
requirement
100%
90%
5%
19%
7%
5%
80%
7%
70%
5%
60%
21%
21%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
2%
7%
7%
6%
6%
6%
7%
7%
6%
6%
8%
9%
11%
11%
10%
11%
12%
19%
19%
19%
18%
17%
18%
17%
17%
66%
65%
64%
64%
65%
64%
64%
63%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
50%
40%
62%
30%
48%
20%
10%
0%
2009
2010
COAL
Source: Draft RUPTL 2009-2018
GAS
GEOTHERMAL
HYDRO
OIL
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Goal
ELECTRICITY FOR A BETTER LIFE
1,600
Interest
Fuel Mix
Adjustment
1,400
1,347
Depreciation
Decrease COGS
1,200
General Affairs &
Cost of Goods Sold (Rp/kWh)
1,076
1,038
1,000
952
906
1,069
Administration.
998
Maintenance
931
800
IPP Purchase
600
Fuel
400
200
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Besides to meet the targeted electrification ratio and demand growth,
new pp built is also targeted to improve a better Fuel Mix to gain a
lower COGS
Indonesia’s Geothermal Status January 2009
ELECTRICITY FOR A BETTER LIFE
SEULAWAH AGAM
160 MW
Ready for Exploitation
SIBAYAK
12 MW
SARULA
330 MW
Production Stage
Planned to be Tendered
Capacity is initial indication
JAILOLO
75 MW
LUMUTBALAI
LUMUT BALAI
(UNOCAL)
110 MW
DIENG
60 MW
KARAHA
400 MW
LAHENDONG I, II,III,IV
80 MW
KAMOJANG
150 MW
TAMPOMAS
50 MW
UNGARAN
50 MW
ULUBELU
110 MW
BEDUGUL
175 MW
NGEBEL
120 MW
CISOLOK
45 MW
SALAK
375 MW
Tangkuban
Perahu
55 MW
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ULUMBU
10 MW
PATUHA
400 MW
WAY. WINDU I
110 MW
WAY. WINDU II
117 MW
DARAJAT
255 MW
MATALOKO
2.5 MW
Total Installed Capacity January 2009 : 1,196 MW
DISTRIBUTION OF GEOTHERMAL IN INDONESIA
ELECTRICITY FOR A BETTER LIFE
Non Volcanic
Location : 53 Schemes
Potential :1. 15 GWe
Maluku
Sulawesi
Kalimantan
Irian Jaya
Jawa
Total Location : 256 Schemes
Total Potential : 27 GWe
Bali
Flores
Alor
Timor
Targets of Long Term Geothermal Development
ELECTRICITY FOR A BETTER LIFE
1. Development of geothermal must able to achieve
Government’s target in the Road Map of Geothermal
Development (6000 MW by 2020 and 9500 MW by 2025)
2. Both Investor and off taker shall gain benefit (win-win
Solution)
3. Both Investor and off taker must together bear the risk of
geothermal development according to their respective
share and role.
4. All risks of geothermal development will then be
accounted in the price of electricity produced.
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Phase II of 10.000 MW Acceleration Program
ELECTRICITY FOR A BETTER LIFE
GENERATION COMPOSITION
Hydro
12%
Steam
26%
Geothermal
48%
CCGT
14%
Total kapasitas 9.963 MW
Phase II Acceleration program is dominated by renewable energy
power plants (60%): geothermal with 48% and hydro at 12%.
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Locations of Phase II Acceleration Project
ELECTRICITY FOR A BETTER LIFE
SUMATERA
Core Project:
• HEPP
• GeoPP
• SCPP
• CCPP
: 174 MW
: 1.770 MW
: 724 MW
:
66 MW
KALIMANTAN
Core Project:
• SCPP
• CCPP
: 676 MW
: 120 MW
SULAWESI
Core Project:
• GeoPP : 125 MW
• SCPP
: 298 MW
PAPUA
Core Project:
• SCPP
: 114 MW
MALUKU
Core Project:
• GeoPP : 37 MW
• SCPP
: 32 MW
NTT
JAMALI
Core Project:
Core Project:
• GeoPP
• SCPP
• CCPP
• HEPP :
: 1.525 MW
: 2.000 MW
: 1.200 MW
1.000 MW
• GeoPP : 41 MW
• SCPP
: 30 MW
NTB
TOTAL
Core Project:
• HEPP
• GeoPP
• SCPP
• CCPP
TOTAL
: 1.174
: 3.528
: 3.944
: 1.386
: 10.032
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
Core Project:
• GeoPP :40 MW
• SCPP
:70 MW
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PLN and IPP Project in Phase II Acceleration Program
ELECTRICITY FOR A BETTER LIFE
Power Plant
PLN + IPP
Capacity
(MW)
PLN
Capacity
(MW)
IPP
Investment
(MM USD)
Capacity
(MW)
Investment
(MM USD)
Steam
3,944
3,000
3,911
944
1,730
CCGT
1,386
1,200
1,020
186
158
Geothermal
3,528
977
1,529
2,551
5,925
Hydro
1,174
1,174
1,010
Total
10,032
6,351
7,470
3,681
7,813
Total Investment Required for PLN & IPP : USD 15,823 million
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PLN & IPP Project Schedule in Phase II Acceleration Program
ELECTRICITY FOR A BETTER LIFE
Owner
Type
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Total
(MW)
Java-Bali
PLN
Hydro
CCGT
1,000
150
1,050
Geothermal
Steam
IPP
Geothermal
1,000
175
1,200
60
220
1,000
1,000
310
445
260
540
2,000
55
985
Outer Java-Bali
PLN
Hydro
Geothermal
174
65
Steam
IPP
CCGT
66
Geothermal
Steam
TOTAL
174
75
139
119
200
500
300
40
437
1,000
120
186
220
515
386
446
1,566
12
227
397
196
112
944
293
2,067
3,095
3,665
913
10,03213
The largest geothermal potential
ELECTRICITY FOR A BETTER LIFE
•
•
•
•
Number of Volcanoes : 150
Potential : 40% of the World potential
Promising fields : 250 fields, Potential : more than 27,000 MW
Current Installed Capacity : 1,196 MW
30,000
EXPLOITABLE RESOURCE POTENTIAL (50 fields)
Indonesia
Geothermal potential (MW)
25,000
Japan
USA
20,000
15,000
10,000
Mexico
Iceland
Philippines
5,000
y = 185.08x - 417.83
R2 = 0.9705
Italy New Zealand
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
No. of Volcanoes
120
140
160
14
JICA/WestJEC
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Short Term Pipe Line for GPP Development
ELECTRICITY FOR A BETTER LIFE
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Development of Fields under the Old Law
Cooperation of Existing Developers and PLN
Entry : Can be a Direct Appointment
Existing Developer already had experience in
assessing the risks
Potential to have new PP built 1,300 MW in short
term
Extension of Existing Site
New wells had already been drilled
Scheme : Selling Steam or Selling Electricity
Mid Term for GPP Development
ELECTRICITY FOR A BETTER LIFE
1. Development of Green Fields as result New Law
2. New Developers need adaptation in assessing the
risks
3. Scheme: Mostly through Selling Electricity
100 Days Program
ELECTRICITY FOR A BETTER LIFE
1. PLN plan to propose to the Government to
review the regulation related to GPP
development
2. Focus of Restructuring :
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
Mechanism of Tender
Improve Quality of Tender Document
Standardization ESC
Risks distribution and Guarantee
Pricing
PT PLN (PERSERO)
ELECTRICITY FOR A BETTER LIFE
Conclusion
1. Following-up the government policy, maximizing of
renewable energy/geothermal role has been anticipated in
the fast-track program of generating development Phase-II
by PLN and Directorate General of Mineral, Coal and
Geothermal, MEMR.
2. The total target of geothermal power plant development
of year 2008 to 2018 is 3080 MW of the Java Bali System
and 1926 MW of the outer island, which cover green-field
and brown-field that will be funded by the soft-loan of
bilateral and multilateral funding agencies, and also
through IPP participation.
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ELECTRICITY FOR A BETTER LIFE
THANK YOU