Transcript REPSOL plantilla_4_3_azul_cast

Offshore Wind
A big opportunity?
GA-EMA Conferences
22 October 2014
©
1. Global context of Renewables
2. Offshore Wind
• Markets
• Concepts and key figures
• Risks
3. Conclusions
©
2
1. Global context of Renewables
2. Offshore Wind
• Markets
• Concepts and key figures
• Risks
3. Conclusions
©
3
Global Power Capacity Outlook
Continuous growth expected…
©
Source: IHS
4
Global Energy Production Outlook
Increasing weight of renewables…
©
5
1. Global context of renewables
2. Offshore Wind
• Markets
• Concepts and key figures
• Risks
3. Conclusions
©
6
Offshore Wind Markets
Global installed capacity status
Status in 2014: 7.3 GW
Target for 2020: 38-49 GW
Status in 2014: 0 GW
Target for 2020: 3 GW
Status in 2014: 0 GW
Target for 2020: 2.5 GW
Status in 2014: 0.5 GW
Target for 2020: 30 GW
Europe leads offshore wind development, with more than 90% of projects pipeline.
By 2030, Europe will account for more than 70% of total installed capacity,
©
7
Offshore Wind Markets
UK and Germany leading the path in Europe
0.2
0.1
3.0
0.3
3.7
0.2
4.5-6.0
1.9
1.3
0.4
2.3-2.5
8.5 - 13
0
0
6.0
0.6
0.6
Total
1.8-2.0
0.6
1.5
6-8
©
Operational
7.3 GW
Under
construction
4.9 GW
2020 Target
38 – 49 GW
0
0
6.0
8
History of offshore wind
More than 20 years of growth
2017- Large scale GW
offshore power plants
2009-2017
Industrialising
offshore
1991-2009
Pioneering Phase




Technology viability
System knowledge
Developing concepts
Developing relationships






©

Apply R&D & demonstration
o New concepts
o New materials
o New technology
Stimulating competition
Applying lessons
R&D & demonstration
Scale
o sourcing
o knowledge base
Cost efficiency
o technology development
o installation and O&M concepts
o value chain engineering
Component reliability
9
Offshore Wind sites
Challenging locations
©
Offshore wind projects are installed further from shore and
in deeper waters
10
Offshore wind
Main components of a project
©
11
Offshore wind
Size and Logistics
©
12
Offshore Wind
Development Cycle typical timeline
Gate 1
Opportunity
Assessment
Gate 2
Concept Phase
(2 - 3 years)
Gate 3
Refinement
Phase
(1 - 2 years)
Gate 4
Execution Phase
(2 - 4 years)
Operations
Phase
(25 – 50 years)
Project Progress
©
13
Offshore Wind Economics
Key figures
DEVEX
CAPEX
OPEX
EIA
Geophysical
Geotechnical
Wind Assesment
…
Supply of elements
Installation
Comissioning
…
Operation
Maintenance
Repairment
Transmision
…
70-140 k€/MW
3-4 m€/MW
40-80 €/MWh
LCOE 160 €/MWh (*)
(*) Weighted-average levelised cost of energy value of projects financed in 2013
©
14
Offshore wind
Key Risks
• Ornithology
Permitting
• Marine Mammals
• Commercial Fishing
• Regulatory changes
Commercial
• Cost Reduction
• Capital Requirements
• Grid Connection
Execution
• Supply Chain Constrains
• Asset Performance
©
15
Innovation
From all aspects of offshore wind
Turbines
Foundations
Cables
Logistics
Installation
Financing
Innovation
Procurement
strategy
©
Operation
&
Maintenance
16
Innovation
Floating substructures
©
17
Repsol Offshore Wind Portfolio
Beatrice
Global project info
Beatrice
Moray Firth
Scotland
Inch Cape
Moray Firth
Inch Cape
©
18
Repsol Offshore Wind Portfolio
Met Mast
©
19
1. Global context of renewables
2. Offshore Wind
• Markets
• Concepts and key figures
• Risks
3. Conclusions
©
20
Conclusions
Offshore Wind
● Installed capacity is expected to grow during this decade, mainly in
Europe, although not as much as estimated 3-4 years ago
● Interest in the offshore sector continues to grow, with investor
commitments, policy support and technological innovations driving
the industry forward
● Growing cost concerns, due to deeper waters and further from
shore, need to be addressed for offshore to become cost-competitive
● More competition has to be achieved at the supply chain level in
order to allow cost reduction and standardization
● Offshore wind presents significant risks at all stages of the project
(Development, Construction and Operation) but can be mitigated
through proper project management
©
21
Pablo Gómez-Acebo
Head of Renewables Business Development
[email protected]
Thank you
©