Transcript Document

Mobile Terminal OS
Competition
Ville Lehtonen, 49515B
Scope and agenda
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The Market in general
The Operating Systems
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Symbian
Windows Mobile
Palm OS
Linux (Montavista)
Other Stakeholders
Brand
Conclusions
Mobile Operating Systems
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Mobile phone performance has increased drastically in
the last 5 years
 Color screens
 Cameras
 Up to 80 Mt of memory
The need for a real operating system is obvious
 Marketplace is too big for any major player to ignore
 Considerable synergy with other systems
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PC, consoles
The current market status
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PDAs were still the bigger market in 2003, but smart phones will
probably beat them in 2003
 PDA sales roughly 10 million a year
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60% Symbian, 22% Palm OS and 6,6% Windows in April 2003
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5.3% to 17.9% drop in PDA sales in 2003, depending on source
ARC Group study, 2003
The potential is immense
 1.29 billion mobile phone users in September 2003
 100 million data users in Sept 2003
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Mostly in Korea and Japan
Number of smart phones estimated to reach 45 million by 2007
(ARC Group, 2003)
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Expected to balance out at 20% of all mobile phone users
Symbian
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Founded by Nokia, Ericsson,
Motorola, Panasonic and
Psion
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Designed for mobile systems
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Small memory footprint
Minimal battery consumption
Minimal hardware
requirements
Over 10 million phones using
symbian sold by 2003
Massive industry support
Significant software support
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However Nokia now owns
63,3% of Symbian
ICQ among others
2,090,000 google hits
Windows Mobile
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Windows CE name evolution
 Windows Smartphone
 Pocket PC
 Windows Mobile 2003
Dominant in the PC industry
Does not manage power as
well as Symbian or Linux
Significant industry support
 Compaq, Dell and Motorola
3,230,000 google hits
 Used “Windows CE”
Palm OS
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PalmSource, Inc
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Overall market leader in PDA /
Smart phone OS
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PalmOne makes hardware
Over 30 million sold
20 000 software titles
Expanded to the smart phone
market with the Treo product
line
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Product of Handspring, which
Palm bought
Had a 22% share of the market
in 2003
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Has most likely gone down
3,550,000 google hits
Linux based Operating
Systems
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Montavista Linux CEE by
Montavista software is the
most serious entrant
Open Source
Low Industry support
 Most of it is coming from
the far east
 Motorola balancing
between Windows and
Linux
Boasts dynamic power
managements
 But not much else
Has lost the price advantage
113,000 google hits
The Hardware Industry
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Mobile phone producers behind Symbian
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Palm OS
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Samsung, Sony, PalmOne, Foundertech
Windows Mobile
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Nokia, SonyEricsson, Panasonic, Motorola, Samsung,
Lenovo (China), Siemens, NEC, Toshiba
Compaq, Motorola, Samsung, Philips, Fujitsu, Orange
Linux
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Motorola, Nexterm, ELT, Samsung, Sony, Panasonic,
Philips, NEC, Toshiba
Software producers
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Software makers can make
or break OSs
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Windows software
dominates the market
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Has been seen before
All the systems are open
Linux presence negligible
Palm even worse
Symbian nonexistant
Convergence will favor the
incumbent Microsoft
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Switching costs are already
lowest when using
Windows Mobile
Amazon software sales
90
80
70
60
50
40
Europe
30
USA
20
10
0
MacOS
MacOS / Windows
Windows
Linux /
Windows
Top 100 titles
Linux
PDA
The Gaming Industry
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Significance to OSs
experienced on the PC side
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I-Mode proof that it works in
mobiles as well
Games a huge market in their
own right
A three way struggle with linux
sitting on the sidelines
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Massive competition for MMO
games for all systems
Palm participates by emulating
Nintendo
Will Sony support Symbian?
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Nokia starts off Nokia Games
Amazon game sales
50
45
40
35
30
25
Europe
20
USA
15
10
5
0
Sony
Microsoft
Top 100 titles
Nintendo
Presence Services and
Finances
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Presence services and digital identity growing
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Verified by Visa
Microsoft Passport
 Instant messaging, E-mail on the side
Liberty Alliance
 Symbian shareholders with Sun and others
Getting users is the key
Who will benefit from the convergence?
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Credit Card companies, Banks, OS creators, Mobile phone
producers, Instant messengers, ISPs?
Will all even survive the process?
Telco’s and ISPs
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Microsoft control of mobiles might allow it control of
the VoIP market
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Microsoft or Nokia ambitions in the presence
services troubling
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How will the Telco’s react?
 Billing becomes increasingly difficult
Telco’s and ISPs lose a lot of potential revenue
 NTT Docomo, Sprint, Nextel, TeliaSonera among the
Telco’s in Liberty Alliance
 AOL, Jabber from the internet side in Liberty Alliance
What is left for Telco’s and ISPs?
Governments
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Digital citizenship for payment purposes allows
effective taxation by companies
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Personal information becoming a commercial
product
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What’s new? Banks have done this before
Might grow to involve all commerce
 Which makes it bigger than banking
Winner-takes-it-all seems unlikely to be allowed
Not new, but might grow to new dimensions
To what degree will the government allow it?
Countries like China have their own agenda
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Might favor operating systems
Brand
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Differences in the Operating Systems relatively
small
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Microsoft and Nokia the strong brands in the market
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The mass market will be won or lost on an emotional level
Nokia might be a brand name, but Symbian is not
Microsoft #2, Nokia #6
“Everyone knows Microsoft never loses”
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Linux has a niche market feel to it
Relatively poor mass market awareness of Palm OS
Conclusions
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Brand weight in the market is massive
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Nokia lacking on the software front
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Sony and its gaming empire in a critical position
How can interoperability with Microsoft dominated desktop
machines be guaranteed?
Linux does not have much going for it
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Microsoft and Nokia dominant
Nor does Palm OS
Hard to tell which way the Far East will go
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Might be most significant of all with China’s 260 million
users
Lots of local solutions already (I-Mode)
Sources
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http://ncsp.forum.nokia.com/downloads/nokia
/documents/Symbian_White.pdf
http://www.palmsource.com/about/ir.html
http://www.symbian.com/pressoffice/2004/pr040322b.html
www.internetnews.com
www.gartner.com