Transcript Document
Mobile Terminal OS
Competition
Ville Lehtonen, 49515B
Scope and agenda
The Market in general
The Operating Systems
Symbian
Windows Mobile
Palm OS
Linux (Montavista)
Other Stakeholders
Brand
Conclusions
Mobile Operating Systems
Mobile phone performance has increased drastically in
the last 5 years
Color screens
Cameras
Up to 80 Mt of memory
The need for a real operating system is obvious
Marketplace is too big for any major player to ignore
Considerable synergy with other systems
PC, consoles
The current market status
PDAs were still the bigger market in 2003, but smart phones will
probably beat them in 2003
PDA sales roughly 10 million a year
60% Symbian, 22% Palm OS and 6,6% Windows in April 2003
5.3% to 17.9% drop in PDA sales in 2003, depending on source
ARC Group study, 2003
The potential is immense
1.29 billion mobile phone users in September 2003
100 million data users in Sept 2003
Mostly in Korea and Japan
Number of smart phones estimated to reach 45 million by 2007
(ARC Group, 2003)
Expected to balance out at 20% of all mobile phone users
Symbian
Founded by Nokia, Ericsson,
Motorola, Panasonic and
Psion
Designed for mobile systems
Small memory footprint
Minimal battery consumption
Minimal hardware
requirements
Over 10 million phones using
symbian sold by 2003
Massive industry support
Significant software support
However Nokia now owns
63,3% of Symbian
ICQ among others
2,090,000 google hits
Windows Mobile
Windows CE name evolution
Windows Smartphone
Pocket PC
Windows Mobile 2003
Dominant in the PC industry
Does not manage power as
well as Symbian or Linux
Significant industry support
Compaq, Dell and Motorola
3,230,000 google hits
Used “Windows CE”
Palm OS
PalmSource, Inc
Overall market leader in PDA /
Smart phone OS
PalmOne makes hardware
Over 30 million sold
20 000 software titles
Expanded to the smart phone
market with the Treo product
line
Product of Handspring, which
Palm bought
Had a 22% share of the market
in 2003
Has most likely gone down
3,550,000 google hits
Linux based Operating
Systems
Montavista Linux CEE by
Montavista software is the
most serious entrant
Open Source
Low Industry support
Most of it is coming from
the far east
Motorola balancing
between Windows and
Linux
Boasts dynamic power
managements
But not much else
Has lost the price advantage
113,000 google hits
The Hardware Industry
Mobile phone producers behind Symbian
Palm OS
Samsung, Sony, PalmOne, Foundertech
Windows Mobile
Nokia, SonyEricsson, Panasonic, Motorola, Samsung,
Lenovo (China), Siemens, NEC, Toshiba
Compaq, Motorola, Samsung, Philips, Fujitsu, Orange
Linux
Motorola, Nexterm, ELT, Samsung, Sony, Panasonic,
Philips, NEC, Toshiba
Software producers
Software makers can make
or break OSs
Windows software
dominates the market
Has been seen before
All the systems are open
Linux presence negligible
Palm even worse
Symbian nonexistant
Convergence will favor the
incumbent Microsoft
Switching costs are already
lowest when using
Windows Mobile
Amazon software sales
90
80
70
60
50
40
Europe
30
USA
20
10
0
MacOS
MacOS / Windows
Windows
Linux /
Windows
Top 100 titles
Linux
PDA
The Gaming Industry
Significance to OSs
experienced on the PC side
I-Mode proof that it works in
mobiles as well
Games a huge market in their
own right
A three way struggle with linux
sitting on the sidelines
Massive competition for MMO
games for all systems
Palm participates by emulating
Nintendo
Will Sony support Symbian?
Nokia starts off Nokia Games
Amazon game sales
50
45
40
35
30
25
Europe
20
USA
15
10
5
0
Sony
Microsoft
Top 100 titles
Nintendo
Presence Services and
Finances
Presence services and digital identity growing
Verified by Visa
Microsoft Passport
Instant messaging, E-mail on the side
Liberty Alliance
Symbian shareholders with Sun and others
Getting users is the key
Who will benefit from the convergence?
Credit Card companies, Banks, OS creators, Mobile phone
producers, Instant messengers, ISPs?
Will all even survive the process?
Telco’s and ISPs
Microsoft control of mobiles might allow it control of
the VoIP market
Microsoft or Nokia ambitions in the presence
services troubling
How will the Telco’s react?
Billing becomes increasingly difficult
Telco’s and ISPs lose a lot of potential revenue
NTT Docomo, Sprint, Nextel, TeliaSonera among the
Telco’s in Liberty Alliance
AOL, Jabber from the internet side in Liberty Alliance
What is left for Telco’s and ISPs?
Governments
Digital citizenship for payment purposes allows
effective taxation by companies
Personal information becoming a commercial
product
What’s new? Banks have done this before
Might grow to involve all commerce
Which makes it bigger than banking
Winner-takes-it-all seems unlikely to be allowed
Not new, but might grow to new dimensions
To what degree will the government allow it?
Countries like China have their own agenda
Might favor operating systems
Brand
Differences in the Operating Systems relatively
small
Microsoft and Nokia the strong brands in the market
The mass market will be won or lost on an emotional level
Nokia might be a brand name, but Symbian is not
Microsoft #2, Nokia #6
“Everyone knows Microsoft never loses”
Linux has a niche market feel to it
Relatively poor mass market awareness of Palm OS
Conclusions
Brand weight in the market is massive
Nokia lacking on the software front
Sony and its gaming empire in a critical position
How can interoperability with Microsoft dominated desktop
machines be guaranteed?
Linux does not have much going for it
Microsoft and Nokia dominant
Nor does Palm OS
Hard to tell which way the Far East will go
Might be most significant of all with China’s 260 million
users
Lots of local solutions already (I-Mode)
Sources
http://ncsp.forum.nokia.com/downloads/nokia
/documents/Symbian_White.pdf
http://www.palmsource.com/about/ir.html
http://www.symbian.com/pressoffice/2004/pr040322b.html
www.internetnews.com
www.gartner.com