Transcript Some priorities for Water Management in Sub

Some priorities for Water Management
in Sub- Saharan Africa
View points from FARA
Alain L. ANGE
Technical Adviser to FARA
What happened so far - what challenges
 Food security is a burning issue
Food production could not face demand for food
Huge expected population and food demand growth
Farmers did better while farm size stagnated
Very low pace of intensification
Poor development of irrigated areas
Poor water productivity in agriculture
Climate change will exacerbate risks in farming
Food security risk index – 2011 (FAO)
A
sensitivity
issue
Africa is the largest food insecure area and has the largest population of hungry people.
Food security = highest ranking component in development agenda
Food production could not match demand for food
Huge changes happened in production to consumption systems in last 30 years.
SSA Millions
Mouths to feed
Agricultural population
Consumer/ agric people
1980
369
258
1.43
2010
820
382
2.15
Growth
2.22
1.48
1.50
The cropped area doubled, production per capita dropped, imports soared
SSA – source FAO
1980 – M t
1980 – kg/cap. 2008 – M t
2008 – kg/cap.
Cereal production
Net Cereal imports
Food imports
51
3.9
10
138.1
109
139.7
10.4
20.4
24.9
27.3
33
42.2
Food exports
8.7
23.6
11.2
14.4
Exports industrial crops
3.8
10.2
5.7
7.3
The deficit of support to agriculture created a food deficit
Population and Food demand growth
An Exposure
For the next 30 years
SSA - millions
Mouth to feed
Agricultural
population
Consumer/agric
. people
2010
820
382
2.15
2040
1.467
527
2.78
Growth
x
1.79
x
1.38
x
1.29
• Food availability per capita should increase by 30% while food import
per capita should decrease;
• The average production by every agricultural people should increase
by 90% for maintaining food imports at present level;
• Degraded land should be restored and land degradation controlled.
A potential adaptive capacity
Farmers did better while farm size stagnated
Kg produced/
Agricultural people
Cereals
1985
2008
Change %
210.9
256.7
+ 22
Beans + Peas
15.6
23.9
+ 53
Oil Seeds
14.3
24.7
+ 73
Tubers + Bananas
355.9
540.6
+ 52
Fruits + Vegetables
78.8
103.0
+ 31
239.8
207.3
- 14
7.6
8.6
+ 13
922.9
1.164.8
+ 26
Perennial food crops
Non food crops
Total average mass
Ha cropped/ 10
agricultural people
3.490
3.806
+ 9
Small size of farm holdings is a factor of sensitiveness
Very low pace for intensification in SSA
In spite of considerable development efforts, intensification of farming is
coming at very low pace in SSA:
 Crop productivity increased by less than 15 % in last 20 years
 Livestock productivity did not changed
Only 15% of farmers are using improved crop varieties
Fertilizer consumption increased less than the cropped area: 6kg nutrients/ha
Acreage of fully irrigated areas progressed less than total cropped areas
Mechanization/ motorization progressed less than number of rural people
Venues for supporting accelerated intensification of farming
o Improved natural resource management /access at community level
o Settling rural youth into enlarged / mechanized farming units
o Improving access to water for agriculture
o Developing effective production chains well connected to markets
o Develop affordable agricultural credit and insurance systems
o Organize farmers for resource management, mechanization, marketing
Poor development of irrigated areas - FAO
In 20 years fully irrigated areas + 41% - cropped area + 47% - Population + 67%
Sub- region - ha
Potential
1988-1992
1993-1997
1998-2002
2003-2007
2008-2012
Western
7,451,000
663,850
779,460
1,061,190
1,202,820
1,399,670#
Eastern
6,922,900
2,101,300
2,435,700
2,505,600
2,771,700
2,637,670#
Central
10,006,000
59,300
68,610
82,590
106,790
130,000#
Southern
11,538,500
2,625,400
2,760,520
3,120,700
3,330,400
3,570,000#
SSA
35,918,400
5,449,850
6,044,290
6,770,080
7,411,710
7,677,340#
Cultivated humid lowlands ►+11% in 20 years but swallowed by irrigated schemes
Sub- region - ha
1988- 1992
1993-1997
1998-2002
2003-2007
2008-2012
Western
4,888,000
4,921,000
5,088.700
5,286,100
5,360,800#
Eastern
222,400
180,400
183,600
190,400
200,000#
Central
78,000
97,500
125,000
162,500
200,000#
183,900
184,900
183,900
183,900
182,000#
5,372,300
5,538,800
5,581,200
5,822,900
5,942,800#
Southern
SSA
# = estimated projection
Poor Water Productivity in agriculture in SSA
Water productivity - m3 per tonne of cereal grains
STOCKHOLM Resource Institute (Data from FAOStat 2009,and personal communication Zwart, 2009)
NA
Non Accounted
0 - 500
500 - 1000
1000 - 1500
1500 - 2000
2000 - 2500
2500 - 5000
5000 - 7500
7500 - 10000
10000 - 15000
Climate Change will exacerbate risks in farming
Climate change in Sub Saharan Africa will affect water balances:
- Substantially increase temperature and evaporation of water;
- Generate heat waves that may wilt crops;
- Increase rainfall variability - more showers and drought spells;
- Destabilize run-off regimes – more floods and low waters;
- Increase the energy of gales, hurricanes and typhoons;
- Generate high tides in mangrove areas and related rice fields.
Climate change will also generate:
 Geographical shifts of natural vegetation and animal species;
 Changes in distribution of pests and diseases in agriculture;
 Changes in distribution and intensity of human diseases;
 Increased risks for wild fires.
Sensitivity and potentials for solutions
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Poverty is the overwhelming constraint
Lack of institutional development is limiting response
Low public commitment for agriculture is hampering
Land development potentials are huge
Irrigation potentials are significant
Green and blue water available – blue water is short
Farming systems and livelihoods are diversified
Increasing energy and food prices, price volatility
generate potentials and new limiting conditions as well
World distribution of poor people - 2010
Poverty = The most important component of sensitivity
Source FAO
Poverty reduction
is key to development
and a product from
development
With 24% of poor people, Sub Saharan Africa is the most affected continent by
poverty. In relation to population growth, poor people could be 350 millions by
2030 if MDG are only partially reached.
Lack of institutional development and policy commitment
Deficit of institutional development
• No significant development of farmers’ unions in most countries;
• Collapse of most cooperative movements
• Very limited development of out-growers schemes and agreements in
production chains supporting intensification
Deficit of policy commitment
 Dar Es Salaam Declaration in March 2003 = 10% of budget for agriculture
 In 2013, 7 countries out of 53 have increased agricultural budgets
 Within CAADP, in 7 years, 11 countries have developed Investment Plans
 No significant change in budget for irrigation in most Investment Plans
 Regulations on water access, water pricing and water quality not available
Very good progress on the joint management of shared water basins
Land development potentials
A
D
A
P
T
I
V
E
Sub – Saharan Africa has huge arable land available – 800 million ha
Million
ha
1200
1000
Suitable for rain-fed crops
Arable land use 1997-99
800
600
C
A
P
A
C
I
T
Y
400
200
0
Latin America – Sub Saharan – East –
and Caribbean Africa
Asia
1066
203
1031
228
366
232
South – Near East – Industrialized – Transition
Asia
North Africa Countries
Economies
220
207
99
86
874
387
497
215
Extending cropped area for larger farms with adequate mechanization
A
D
A
P
T
I
V
E
C
A
P
A
C
I
T
Y
Irrigation Potentials
Huge expansion potential for irrigation
But potential is 1/3 of potential in South Asia for 3 fold more landmass.




Plans for irrigation development at national and watershed level;
Budget for irrigation infrastructure agreed upon;
Water-users associations promoted;
Water pricing regulated.
Diversity of Green and Blue water availability in SSA
Green-blue water year 2000 - m3 /cap / y
STOKHOLM RESOURCE INSTITUTE – May 2009
1 - 500
500 - 1000
1000 - 2000
2000 - 5000
5000 - 10000
10000 - 50000
50000 - 100000
> 100000
Limitations for Blue Water availability in SSA
Stockholm Resource Institute – May 2009
Blue water year 2000 - m3 /capita /y
1 - 500
500 - 1000
1000 - 2000
2000 - 5000
5000 - 10000
10000 - 50000
50000 - 100000
> 100000
Farming/ livelihood systems in Africa
The diversity of
farming conditions and
agro-biodiversity are
composing a capital for
adaptation to increasing
markets and to climate
change
Extremely diverse and tightly natural resource depending
farming systems/ livelihoods generate adequate local responses.
Increasing energy and food prices
Energy price tripled in 10 years – Food prices increased by 80%
Both trends compose a major exposure to African economies
Energy cost will hit cost of irrigation
Food prices are only partially reflected in producers’ price
Priorities for improved water management
• Improve the productivity of green water ensuring 90% of food
production so far;
• Promote land use planning and water harvesting where possible
• Develop irrigated rice production while sharply reducing water
consumption
• Rationalize traditional water use for irrigated vegetables and fruits
and improve safety of waste water recycling
• Promote wherever economically viable complementary irrigation, in
particular for maize production
• Organize the recharge of ground water bodies
• Address water pricing issues to improve efficient water use
• Address by regulations and enforcement water pollution from
agricultural/ non agricultural activities
Recent land use developments 1 – 1000 ha
Country
KENYA
ETHIOPIA
BURUNDI
CAMEROON
Year
1990
2010
1990
2010
1990
2010
1990
2010
Cereals
1,785.4
2,542.4
4,957.4
9,233.0
217.5
237.0
648.2
1,717.6
5.5
10.8
1.7
3.1
% irrigated
Legumes+oil seeds
0.7
0.8
0
0.5
956.6
1,275.9
1,234.4
2,281.7
273.3
284.7
421.6
975.6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
240.3
355.3
484.8
1,107.4
496.5
611.6
555.3
918.4
0
0
5.1
10.3
20.7
44.9
0
0
429.3
515.6
575.4
837.8
60.4
29.6
902.1
1,341.3
9.4
13.3
2.7
2.3
0
0
16.1
10.8
Vegetables + fruits
172.8
331.3
524.3
912.9
45.1
70.4
345.9
823.3
% irrigated +
humid land
71.2
52.5
86.3
86.7
60.3
66.8
68.1
83.2
3,584.4
5,020.5
7,776.3
14.372.9
1,092.8
1,229.2
2,872.6
5,776.3
Total irrigated +
humid land
163.5
242.7
487.1
939.6
142.2
212.5
391.4
738.2
IRRIGATED - FAO
66.6
116.0
219.0
350.4
14.4
30.8
21.0
34.2
% irrigated
Roots + tubers +
bananas
% irrigated +
humid land
Industrial crops
% irrigated
TOTAL crops
Recent land use developments 2 – 1000 ha
Country
Year
Cereals
% irrigated
Benin
1990
643.9
Ghana
2010
1990
2010
1.048.6
2,529.9
4,291.5
2010
1990
2010
853.0
1,602.1
2,438.7
3.968.8
5.7
11.3
8.1
17.5
0.9
210.2
348.1
660.3
1.949.5
277.0
606.9
493.0
648.8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
221.6
509.7
8.9
9.8
714.3
1,873.9
7.4
24.3
1.2
0.7
20.1
20.9
0
0
24.3
34.4
166.5
415.1
212.4
515.2
884.6
2,031.7
258.6
343.3
0.4
0.4
2.0
0.9
0
0
1.8
1.4
Vegetables + fruits
113.7
154.6
42.1
56.9
195.6
423.0
84.3
143.1
% irrigated +
humid land
55.9
61.3
68.5
67.3
52.3
42.2
66.5
62.8
% irrigated
Roots + tubers +
bananas
% irrigated +
humid land
Industrial crops
% irrigated
Total crops
3.1
1990
Mali
3.8
Legumes+oil seeds
1.2
Burkina Faso
1,355.8
2,476.1
3,453.6
6,839.9
2,824.5
6,537.6
3,281.9
5,128.5
Total Irrigated
+ humid land
74.9
140.0
56.1
176.6
151.3
359.7
255.8
787.4
Irrigated -FAO
9.7
23.0
15.4
21.4
2.6
30.3
18.0
430.0
Recent land use developments 3 – 1000 ha
Country
Year
Cereals
% irrigated
Legumes+oil seeds
% irrigated
Roots + tubers +
bananas
% irrigated +
humid land
Industrial crops
% irrigated
Vegetables + fruits
% irrigated +
humid land
Total crops
Nigeria
1990
15,400.0
7.8
Cameroon
2010
16,104.7
1990
648.2
Madagascar
South Africa
2010
1990
2010
1990
2010
1,717.6
1,326.9
2,108.9
6,156.9
3,548.0
15.1
1.7
3.1
87.8
85.7
30.0
43.0
3,482.8
6,337.7
421.6
975.6
99.2
149.2
861.4
881.7
0
0
0
0
0
0
7.0
35.3
3,248.8
8,519.7
555.3
918.4
534.3
628.7
92.1
89.5
14.9
7.3
12.3
8.0
9.7
5,985.6
902.2
1,341.3
510.5
16.1
10.8
1.2
4,101.5
0.5
1.2
100
100
383.7
427.1
283.9
12.7
24.8
67.7
95.1
2.488.8
3,946.4
345.8
823.2
192.8
250.0
342.6
435.0
52.2
60.8
68.2
83.2
35.3
21.3
100
100
28,559.9
40,510.4
2,872.6
5,776.3
2,663.7
3,550.6
7,881.1
5,237.9
Total Irrigated
+ humid land
2,536.2
5,174.1
417.1
936.6
1,371.1
2,085.2
2,715.4
2,632.5
Irrigated -FAO
232.8
330.0
21.0
34.2
1,087.0
1,084.0
1,200.0
1,670.0
Conclusions
Investments for irrigation have been high in few countries only;
In most cases, the expansion of the cropped area has been at least as
high as the expansion of irrigated areas;
A large proportion of irrigation takes place in humid lowlands, taping
surface and shallow ground waters through archaic systems;
Irrigation is developed for rice production in modern irrigation schemes
and in humid lowlands and for vegetable production in humid lowlands;
Only in South Africa irrigation is largely developed for maize, soybeans
and eventually canola production and for intensive fruit production.
Irrigation has more impact on nutrition quality than on food security in
most countries, while in the Sahel zone, it significantly contributes to the
supply of grains.
Increasing public and private investments for irrigation should be
combined with improved water efficiency and water productivity
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