Transcript NW GP, Ver. 2
Life At The Top Of The S-Curve
Randy Rettberg
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Example: Disk Density 100,000 10,000 1,000 100 10 1 1970
Largest areal density achieved during year.
1980 1990 2x / 12 mo 2000
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Example: Disk Costs 100 10 0.5x / 12mo 1 0.1
2000: 75 GB / $400 2003: 200 GB / $250 0.01
1997 1999 2000 2001 2003 2004
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Moore’s Law (1979)
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Limits to Moore’s Law?
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100,000,000 Internet Growth (Hosts) 10,000,000 1,000,000 100,000 10,000 1,000 100 10 1970 ARPANET 1975 1980 1985 INTERNET 1990 1995 2000
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The Business Climate 5 Great Years
Sept 1999
100 10 1 0.1
AOL SUNW NASDAQ EMC CSCO
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The Business Climate But not for drive vendors 10 1
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61
NASDAQ MXTR WDC HDD STK
Seagate
0.1
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Stages of the Growth Curve Fear
Resignation
Greed
Love
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Lots of Growth Curves Television E-cash Movies Images Mp3 Games Web Gopher, Archie Streams FTP Email Mag tape transfer Remote resource sharing Terminal access Terminal linking
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Growth In Many Fields
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Stunted Growth ?
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Double-Digit Returns The Hard Way
100.0
2003
10.0
1995
1.0
NASDAQ CSCO MSFT SUN EMC IBM 0.1
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What Happened?
1.
It was never real – the bubble burst.
2.
Just the normal business cycle. It will get better soon.
3.
Gravity - What goes up must come down.
4.
The Internet did not change everything.
5.
It was Y2K after all.
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Or How About:
• We got more technology than we wanted.
– How fast is the CPU in your computer?
– Way too much dark fiber?
– How do you fill a 200 GB disk?
• Monopolization did stifle innovation.
• Napster lost.
• Copyright went wrong, blocking the media revolution.
• We got picture cell phones instead of phone calls over the Internet.
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Life at the Top of the S-Curve
• It might last a long time • It might not be fun • It might slow everything else • Where shall we look?
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100,000
Dow 1930 - 2003
10,000 1,000
1942
100 10
1966 1982 1999
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Life at the Top of the S-Curve
• It might last a long time • It might not be fun • It might slow everything else • Non-technical issues dominate 21
Storage Practice and Customer Care
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700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Sun Micro HealthCheck
7/99 1/00
Open Escalations 22 2 0 6 4 20 18 16 14 12 10 8
7/00 23
Strategy 1
Grow out of it!
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3 Growth Laws 100000 10000 1000 100 10 1
1
2000
2 3 4 5
2x / 6-9 mo
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2x / 12 mo 2x / 18 mo
7 8 25
Storage Service Providers Storage Networks Arsenal Digital Solutions Storage Computer Storage Way
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Networks for Storage
iSCSI
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Growing Pressure
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Strategy 2
Politics!
Don’t let them stop innovation!
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Media As An Example
• Napster case cut growth of mp3 – Less demand for mp3 players – Less demand for audio In/Out – Less demand for E-cash to pay for music • DMCA – Copyright gone wrong – Uncertainty for media investors – Uncertainty for broadband deployment – Uncertainty for computer hardware Remember that CD adoption was driven by “oldies” 30
Less Obvious Blocks
• No e-money – Banks and Credit Card Laws (Factoring) • No phone calls – Telephone industry • No security – National cryptography policy and terrorism 31
Strategy 3
Go sideways!
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Computer/Communications Revolution 2100 - Nanotechnology 2050 - Internet Reaches Ubiquity 2000 – Y2K Averted 1970 - Internet Created 1945 - Computers Created 1900 - Electric Lighting 1800 - Industrial Revolution 1500 - Renaissance 1000 - Middle Ages (Nothing Happens) 0 - Roman Empire
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“The Internet Changes Everything”
• • • • • • Still to come: Movies Television Telephone Money Security Telemetry
Where are they?
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A Sideways Approach
• Connect everything to the Internet.
• What are the protocols?
• Functionally distributed intelligence instead of central intelligence.
• Replace analog audio, video, IR control, RF control, RS-232, with Internet.
• Who is in control? Everybody!
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Sideways At Sun
• End-to-end checksums • Less virtualization not more • Non-volatile write buffer • IDE Disks – 2.5 times less expensive at same capacity, same RPM – 3.5 times less expensive at same capacity, 2/3 RPM – Less firmware – No disk-to-disk interconnect 36
Strategy 4: Understand The Innovator’s Dilemma.
The Innovator’s Dilemma, When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail, Clayton Christensen, 1997.
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Principles of Disruptive Innovation
• Customers and investors determine allocation of resources • Small Markets don’t solve the growth needs of large companies • Markets that don’t exist can’t be analyzed • Technology supply may exceed market demand From The Innovator’s Dilemma, Christensen 38
Stages of Disruptive Innovation
1.
Disruptive technologies were first developed within established firms 2.
Marketing personnel then sought reactions from their lead customers 3.
Established firms step up pace of sustaining technological development From The Innovator’s Dilemma, Christensen 39
Stages of Disruptive Innovation (cont.)
4.
New companies were formed, and markets for the disruptive technologies were found by trial and error 5.
The new companies moved up market 6.
Established firms belatedly jumped on the bandwagon to defend their customer base From The Innovator’s Dilemma, Christensen 40
The Answer
Give responsibility for disruptive technologies to organizations whose customers need them.
From The Innovator’s Dilemma, Christensen 41
Strategy 5 Listen to the young.
• The innovator’s dilemma applies everywhere.
• Early retirement is sweeping the industry 42
Strategy 6 Bootstrap Companies
• Government funding • Consulting and support • Grow at the same rate as your market • Reduced expectations for capital • Keep it simple • Own your business 43
Strategy 7 Join a New Curve Computers Synthetic Biology
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Homework
• Don’t believe what industry leaders say. They don’t know.
• Target new technologies at new markets.
• The weaknesses of disruptive technologies are their strengths.
• • Use the growth curves.
Examine the unexamined. Do the unexpected.
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