Transcript No Slide Title

Andreas S. Weigend, PhD
韋思岸教授
E-Business: Overview
电子商务: 概述
Content
内容
• The size and growth of E-Business
电子商务的规模与发展
• Elements of E-Business
电子商务要素
• Evaluating E-Business models
评估电子商务模式
Stanford 1
What is E-Business (EB)?
何谓电子商务(EB)？
EB uses technology (especially the Internet and the Web)
电子商务利用技术（尤其是互联网和网络）
• To communicate
进行传播
- To find, aggregate, create, and deliver information
找到、集中、创造并传递信息
• To transact
进行交易
- To buy, sell, trade, and exchange
购买、出售、交易和交换
EB enables new ways:
电子商务促成新的途径：
• To deliver value to customers
向客户提供价值
• To create value from customers and their data
从客户及其数据中创造出价值
• To create (and monetize) transparency
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- Abbreviation EB := E-Business / E-Commerce EB为电子商务的缩写
- Note: EB is NOT dot-com, NOT Nasdaq bubble, NOT just online ads, NOT free email
注：电子商务不等于网络公司,
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New forms of value creation
新的价值创造形式
（传播、连接等……）
EB Technology电子商务技术
(communication, connectivity, …)
Key Aspects of EB
电子商务的主要方面
• New pricing mechanisms
新的定价机制
• Customization and personalization, based on data
客户定制与个性化
Scale: Opportunity and threat
规模：机遇与威胁
• Speed
• Ability to reach the whole Earth immediately
迅速渗透全球的能力
• Need to create barriers to entry (e.g., lock-in)
需要制造进入壁垒（如用户锁定）
Scale
Internet Age:
Network economies of scale / Network effects
- Each new member increases the value of the network
每个新成员增加了整个网络的价值
• Demand-side economies of scale
Vs Industrial Age:
Production economies of scale
- Average price of product drops as production
• Supply-side economies of scale
Implications
• Quantitative  Qualitative change
• Search for information  Rank information
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is increased
What is the Internet?
何谓互联网？
A very large collection of computers 极为庞大的计算机集合
• that are connected to each other 所有计算机相互连接
• that follow a common protocol (“speak the same language”)
并遵循一种共同协议（“说同一种语言”）
• Information may pass through several other computers
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信息的传输可能经过其他多台计算机
Began 1969 as U.S. Military Project
作为美国军方的一个项目，始于1969年
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Internet Users Worldwide
全球互联网用户
Source: Various, 11/2001. Compiled by:
NUA Internet Surveys http://www.nua.ie/
Canada,USA加拿大和美国
167 million 1.67 亿
Europe欧洲
113 million 1.13 亿
Asia/Pacific亚太
105 million 1.05 亿
Latin America拉美
16.5 million 1650 万
Africa非洲
3.11 million 311 万
Middle East中东
2.40 million 240 万
World Total全球总计
407 million 4.07 亿
(March 2002: 550 million)
About 10% of entire
world’s population
大约占全球总人口的10%
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(2002年3月：5.5亿）
The Internet and the Web
网络与互联网
The World Wide Web (WWW, or “the Web”) consists of
applications that run on the Internet
万维网（WWW或“网络”）由在互联网上运行的应用程序组成
Number of pages on the Web (9/2002)
网络页面数（9/2002）
• Google searches 3 billion pages
Google搜索的页面达30亿
Q: Nr of emails sent per minute?
About as many pages on
Web as people on Earth!
几乎和地球上的人一样多！
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Worldwide E-Business
全球电子商务
其他地区
拉美
西欧
亚太
北美
图中地区与图例说明中的顺序一样
Worldwide E-Business
(total), in US$ billion
全球电子商务总交易额，以10亿美元计
Worldwide EB:
US$ 3 trillion
(1/2003, est.)
全球电子商务：
3万亿美元
（2003年1月估计）
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Source: Forrester Research
Agenda
教学纲要
The Internet 互联网
• Communication platform 通讯平台
• Number of users 互联网用户数量
- Worldwide: About 10% of entire population
遍布全球，大约占全球总人口的10%
Size of EB
电子商务规模
• About US$ 3 trillion (1/2003)
大约3万亿美元(1/2003)
- About 7% of entire business (worldwide)
Elements of EB
电子商务要素
Evaluating EB models
评估电子商务模式
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Elements of EB
电子商务要素
Some ingredients of EB
电子商务组成要素
1. Search 搜索
2. Pricing 定价
3. Logistics 物流
4. Payment 支付
5. Product Representation 产品展示
6. Authentication and Security 验证及安全性
7. Legitimization 合法化
8. Dispute Resolution 解决争端
Some EB technologies and tools
电子商务技术及工具
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1. Search
搜索
Past: Information scarce 过去：信息稀缺
Present: Information abundant 现在：信息丰富

Need for search 搜索需要

Need for ranking
Technology assisted search
技术辅助搜索
• Search engines
搜索引擎
• Comparison search
比较搜索
Use additional information sources
使用其他信息来源
• Search-history of user
用户的搜索历史
• Current location of user
用户目前的位置
• Connectivity of Web pages (link
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structure)
网页的连接性（链接结构）
2. Pricing
定价
Variety of pricing mechanisms
定价机制种类
Exchanges (similar to financial markets)
Auctions
竞拍
Dynamic pricing
动态定价
• Based on inventory
•
•
视存货情况而定
Based on competition
视竞争情况而定
Based on estimate of customer’s “willingness-to-pay”
视对客户“支付意愿”的估计而定
Buyer-set price
买方定价
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3. Logistics
物流
Physical products:
实物产品：
Better coordination with suppliers to
reduce inventory
加强与供应商之间的协调以削减库存
Outsource inventory
外包库存 (Amazon.com)
• Shift inventory risk to supplier
将库存风险转移给供应商
Note: Physical goods always need
physical delivery services
注：实物产品总是要依赖实际的递送服务
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Information products (also
called digital goods):
信息产品：
Logistics is easy if
products in digital form
如果产品以数字形式存在，则
物流简便
• Information products
ideally suited for EB
信息产品最适合电子商务
Storage and delivery easy
易于存储和递送
• Physical storage space
close to zero
实际存储空间几乎为零
4. Payment
支付
Currently, main payment method in U.S.: Credit and debit cards
目前美国主要的支付方法：贷记卡和借记卡
Direct payment between parties (eBay / PayPal)
双方直接支付
Electronic payments (e-Cash)
电子支付
Future possibility: Micro-payments
未来的可能性：微型支付
• E.g., NetBill (purchase a single paragraph)
例如，NetBill （购买一个段落)
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5. Product Representation
产品展示
• How are product attributes communicated?
如何宣传产品属性？
The Web is a rather limited medium
网络是一种相当有局限性的媒介
• Good for information
适用于信息传递
• Limited for multimedia (bandwidth)
不利于多媒体的发展（带宽）
• Impossible for touch, smell
不可触摸、嗅闻
Problems with limited representation of product
产品展示受限的影响
• Mistrust
不信任
• Misinformation
信息误传
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6. Authentication
验证
Validity of transacting parties and of exchanged goods
交易方和交易商品的有效性
• Authenticity真实性
• Reliability可靠性
• Quality质量
Technological solutions 技术解决方案
• Public-key cryptography公钥密码
• Reputation, rating, reviews 声誉、评级、审查
- Experts 通过专家 (Gomez、消费者报告、Stiftung Warentest)
- Community 通过社区 (epinions, eBay, Bizrate.com, Openratings.com)
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7. Legitimization
合法化
When is an agreement/sale/transaction considered valid?
何时认为协议/销售/交易是有效的？
Time and space of transactions
交易的时间和空间
• Distributed network (Is the company at the server or the HQ?)
分布式网络（公司是在服务器还是在总部层面上？）
• Did the sale go through at the mouse click or after the processing?
销售是在点击鼠标后还是在处理后结束？
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8. Dispute Resolution
解决争端
Legal Issues
法律问题
No international bodies for dispute resolution
无国际机构来解决争端
What happens in disputes between direct buyer and seller?
直接购买者与出售者之间发生哪些争端？
• In particular, at intermediaries like eBay?
尤其是eBay等中介机构？
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Some EB technologies and tools
电子商务技术及工具
Catalog Engines
目录引擎
• Create, manage and distribute online product catalogs
制作、管理和发布网上产品目录
Configuration Tools
配置工具
• Help end-customers configure their products online
帮助最终用户在网上配置产品
Content Management Tools
内容管理工具
• Create, manage, maintain and distribute content
制作、管理、维护和分发信息内容
E-mail Automation
电子邮件自动化
• Analyze, route, respond to email. Manage email campaigns
分析、确定路径以及回复电子邮件；管理电子邮件宣传活动
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(cont’d续)
Some EB technologies and tools
电子商务技术及工具
Marketplace Technologies
市场技术
• Establish and operate online marketplaces
创建和经营网上市场
Payment Technologies
支付技术
• Collect, make, or process payments online
在网上实现收款、付款或款项处理
Personalization Tools
个性化工具
• Create recommendations based on customer behavior
根据客户行为，为客户进行推荐
Procurement Systems
采购系统
• Automate corporate purchasing of materials
公司材料采购自动化
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(cont’d续)
Some EB technologies and tools
电子商务技术及工具
Search Engines
搜索引擎
Security Technologies
安全技术
Shopping Engines, Shop Bots
购物引擎，购物虫
…
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Agenda
教学纲要
The Internet
互联网
Size of E-Business (EB)
电子商务规模
Elements of EB
电子商务要素
Tools for EB
电子商务工具
Evaluating EB models
评估电子商务模式
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EB: A Brave New World?…
电子商务：一个全新的世界?...
Charles Schwab
嘉信理财
Cisco/Nortel
思科/北电
Federal Express
联邦快递
Amazon
亚马逊
eBay
Wal-Mart
沃尔玛
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Microsoft/
Oracle
微软/甲骨文
AOL美国在线
Yahoo雅虎
Dell
戴尔
IBM
… or Jurassic Park?
或者是侏罗纪公园？
MCIWorldcom
Art.com
Boo.com
Kozmo
FreeRide.com
Beyond.com
Urban Cool
OnlineChoice.com
Peapod
CarClub.com
CyberRebate.com
drkoop.com
ValueAmerica
iExchange.com
March First
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Wine.com
A traditional distinction: B2B, B2C, …
C2B
C2C
B2B
B2C
Consumer
消费者
From 从
Business
企业
Business
企业
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To
到
Consumer 消费者
Basic questions to evaluate a business model
评估经营模式的基本问题
Sources of customer value
客户价值来源
• How is the firm generating
value for its customers?
公司如何为客户创造价值？
• What is different about the
Internet?
在互联网方面有何不同？
Sources of revenues
收入来源
• Where do revenues come from?
收入来自何处？
• Who pays for what value and
when?
谁在什么时候支付什么价值？
• What are the margins in each
market?
每个市场的利润是多少？
• Are the revenue sources
different with the Internet
compared to without?
收入来源是否因有无互联网而不同？
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Value created for customers
为客户创造的价值
Create content
提供信息内容
Provide entertainment
提供娱乐
Sell products and services
出售产品和服务
Process transactions
处理交易
Collect/analyze data
收集/分析数据
Intermediate
中介
• Aggregator
集成者
• Search/facilitator/infomediary
搜索/促成者/信息中介
• Market maker
造市者
Disintermediate
取消中介
• Enable direct sales via Web
通过网络直接进行销售
EB technologies
电子商务技术
• Tools for e-communities
建立电子社区的工具
• Integration, supply chain etc
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Other suggestions?
其他建议？
Revenues
收入
Sales
销售收入
• Products
Fees
收费
• Sales commissions,
产品
• Services
服务
• Information products
信息产品
- Trends and analytics
趋势和分析方法
- Consumer information
消费者信息
Technology and Tools
技术和工具
•
•
•
referral fees
销售佣金
Transaction fees
交易费
Membership fees
会员费
Subscription
订购费
Advertising
广告
• Sell
销售
• License
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特许
Other suggestions?
其他建议？
Jeff Bezos’s Seven Myths about the Internet
Seven Myths about the Internet
• Jeff Bezos, CEO and founder of Amazon.com
- From speech given at Harvard Business School
Cyberposium on 26 February 2000
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Myth #1
神话1
The Internet changes everything.
互联网改变了一切。
Not really, according to Bezos, since human beings like things certain
ways, no matter how much the technology advances. For instance,
physical stores aren't going away any more than movie theaters did
with the advent of television. "People like to go outside and get
together with others," Bezos observed. Since bricks-and-mortar
operations can't compete with e-commerce on price, however,
they'll focus on other things, such as making shopping a more
entertaining experience.
Bezos认为，并非完全如此，因为不管技术如何进步，人们对事物仍有特定的偏好
。例如，电视时代的到来并没有导致多少家电影院关门大吉。许多商家实实在在的
门面店铺也没有因为虚拟购物环境而消失。 Bezos观察后认为，“人们喜欢外出
与他人在一起。”现实购物环境中的店铺虽无法在价格上与电子商务网站竞争，但
他们可以把重点转向其他方面，比如营造出令人愉悦的购物环境和体验。
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Myth #2
神话2
There are no barriers to entry on the Internet.
互联网不存在进入壁垒。
If that's the case, asked Bezos, how do you explain the fact
that Amazon.com and other e-commerce companies are
investing hundreds of millions of dollars in their
businesses. The fact of the matter is, the barriers to entry on
the Internet are high and getting higher in the face of
technological developments that will make today's online stores
seem quaint at best in the next five to ten years.
Bezos认为，如果是这样的话，那么你又如何解释亚马逊和其他电子商务
公司在业务上投入上亿美元的资金这一事实？事实情况是，互联网的进入
壁垒很高，而且随着技术的进步，这一壁垒越来越高。最多在今后的5到
10年内，这就会导致目前的网上店铺显得有些不合时宜。
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Myth #3
神话3
Intermediaries are dead.
中介消失。
Intermediaries are a fact of life to some degree, Bezos asserted.
The litmus test will be who adds value and who doesn't.
Those that don't will be "toast."
Bezos认为，从一定程度上来说，中介是客观存在的。问题的关键是看哪
些中介能够增值，哪些不能增值。不能增值的中介将淘汰出局。
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Myth #4
神话4
There are going to be only a few winners
in the Internet economy.
互联网经济将只有少数赢家。
Bezos doesn't believe that one for a second. "The world of e-commerce
will be as richly varied as the physical world, probably more so," he
said, "because more business models are possible online." But that
doesn't mean that success is in the cards for everyone, he cautioned.
"I liken it to the Cambrian era 550 million years ago, which saw the
development of multi-celled life. While nature tried every kind of
experiment possible, the creation of new species was offset by the
extinction of others.”
Bezos对此根本就不相信。“电子商务世界将与现实世界一样极具多样性，而且可
能有过之而无不及，”他说，“因为网络会培育出更多的商业模式。”但这并非意
味着人人都能成功。他提醒说，“这就好比是5.5 亿年前的寒武纪时代，当时记录
了多细胞生物的发展历程。但大自然中屡试不爽的规律是，新物种的诞生总是伴随
其他物种的灭绝。”
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Myth #5
神话5
It's easy for bricks-and-mortar retailers
to extend their business.
传统的非网络零售商很容易就可以利用互联网拓展他们的业务。
Forget about it, said Bezos. It's an easy trap for people to fall into,
he explained, because they reason that a store is a store, whether
it's physical or on line. Not so. Take books, for example. Online
sellers are essentially in the technology business; off-line
operations are in the real estate business. One group deals
mainly with variable costs, the other with fixed costs. Below the
superficial similarities, the differences run deep.
Bezos认为，你可别指望这个。人们很容易陷入这样的误区，因为他们认为不
管是实际存在的，还是网上虚拟的，店铺就是店铺。但事实并非如此。就拿
书籍销售为例。从根本上来说，网上销售商处于技术行业，而非网络销售商
则属于房地产行业。 其中一方主要是处理可变成本，另一方则处理固定成本
。虽然两者表面上类似，但却存在很大的实际差异。
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Myth #6
神话6
Current market leaders can't fail.
目前的市场领先者不会失败。
If they take their eyes off the customer, just watch them, said
Bezos. In addition, many business pioneers were good at risk
taking until they became successful and had something to
lose. Then they fell off the leading edge and never recovered.
Bezos认为，如果他们不再关注客户的话，那你就等着看他们的下场。
而且，许多创业者在获取成功、有了可以损失的资本之前都十分善于冒
险。而在此之后，他们就会失去领先优势，再也无法恢复元气。
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Myth #7
神话7
Every company needs an Internet strategy.
每个公司都需要有互联网战略。
Not. "The Internet is an enabling horizontal layer that is causing
broad disruptions across a big part of the economy, but it's not
for every industry," Bezos concluded. "Yet you see people
making business decisions based on the Internet, even where it
doesn't belong.”
并非如此。 “互联网具有创造性破坏的功效，可以涉及到大部分的经济领
域，但并非涵盖没有行业。” Bezos总结说，“不过，即使在有些互联网
没有覆盖的领域，你也会看到人们基于互联网制定商业决策。”
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