Transcript No Slide Title

Cl i n g e n d a e l Ce n t re f o r St r a t e g i c S t u d i e s
Advanced Research Workshop
Scientific Support for the Decision Making
in the Security Sector
Velingrad, Bulgaria
21-25 October 2006
NATO Science Committee
On the role of Scenario’s
for Defence (and Security) Planning
René Willems
Strategy and Policy Studies
TNO Defence and Security
Cl i n g e n d a e l Ce n t re f o r St r a t e g i c S t u d i e s
Netherlands Organisation for Applied Research TNO
Core Areas
TNO Quality of
Life
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TNO Defence,
Security and
Safety
ARW Velingrad
TNO Science
and Industry
TNO Built
Environment
and
Geosciences
TNO Information
and
Communication
Technology
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Cl i n g e n d a e l Ce n t re f o r St r a t e g i c S t u d i e s
Contents
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•
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Challenges
Coping with Uncertainty
Strategic Planning
Scenario’s and Analysis
Illustrative Example
In Summary
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Cl i n g e n d a e l Ce n t re f o r St r a t e g i c S t u d i e s
the world today
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Global shifts in power
Ideological and cultural differences underlined
Technological developments fasten
Globalisation and access to information and production

And our understanding of how things work together lacks. We are
hardly able to argue and predict likely futures, values and costs.
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Cl i n g e n d a e l Ce n t re f o r St r a t e g i c S t u d i e s
Towards non-linear complex systems
Linear system
Input
Complex system
Input
Own initiative
predictable
actors and
interactions
Unpredictable
actors and
interactions
Dead end
streets
Unpredictable
output
Predictable
output
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Cl i n g e n d a e l Ce n t re f o r St r a t e g i c S t u d i e s
Contents
•
•
•
•
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Challenges
Coping with Uncertainty
Strategic Planning
Scenario’s and Analysis
Illustrative Example
In Summary
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Deep uncertainty: When we do not know, and/or key parties
to the decision do not agree on, the system model, prior
probabilities, and/or “cost” function (Lempert e.a. 2004)
Level of agreement for
consensus
Cl i n g e n d a e l Ce n t re f o r St r a t e g i c S t u d i e s
Deep Uncertainty
Amount of evidence (theories, observations, models)
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Cl i n g e n d a e l Ce n t re f o r St r a t e g i c S t u d i e s
Coping with Uncertainty
• Ignore
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Known
Trends
Facts
Causality
Cl i n g e n d a e l Ce n t re f o r St r a t e g i c S t u d i e s
Tools for Strategic Foresight
Prediction
Scenarios
Projection
Drivers
Unknown
Low
High
Availability of information
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Source: After R. Leemans 2003
Cl i n g e n d a e l Ce n t re f o r St r a t e g i c S t u d i e s
Different approaches to dealing with uncertainty
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Source: Robert Lempert, RAND, 102004
Cl i n g e n d a e l Ce n t re f o r St r a t e g i c S t u d i e s
Contents
•
•
•
•
•
•
Challenges
Coping with Uncertainty
Strategic Planning
Scenario’s and Analysis
Illustrative Example
In Summary
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Cl i n g e n d a e l Ce n t re f o r St r a t e g i c S t u d i e s
Long Term Planning
In Defence and Security
Security
Environment
Defence
and
Security
Capabilities
Technology
Trends
Operational
Concepts
Instruments for Strategic Decison Making
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Cl i n g e n d a e l Ce n t re f o r St r a t e g i c S t u d i e s
Capability Based Planning
Missions
Riskanalysis
Task
areas
Foresights
Planning
scenario's
Analysis
Prevention
Response
Evaluation
Tasks
Task
List
Requirements
Capacities
(Soll/Ist)
Priorities
Capacitieslist
Overall Security Picture
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Cl i n g e n d a e l Ce n t re f o r St r a t e g i c S t u d i e s
NATO DRR
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Cl i n g e n d a e l Ce n t re f o r St r a t e g i c S t u d i e s
(modern) adaptive planning
Linear planning “assumes A future”
Most Likely Future
Today
Master
Plan
Scenario planning uses a range of potential futures
Alternative Futures
Today
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Robust Strategies
Viable Across a Range of
Potential Futures
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Source: After US Dos, 2005
Cl i n g e n d a e l Ce n t re f o r St r a t e g i c S t u d i e s
Risk and Uncertainty in
Capability Planning
Worldview
Self image
Threat
assessment
(Nat) Ambitions
Scenarios
(foreign and security
policy)
Societal
Developments
Desired
capabilities
Technological
developments
Objective Force
Legacy Force
(Doctrine, organization, etc)
(current doctrine
organization, etc)
Policy making
(transformation + processes)
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Cl i n g e n d a e l Ce n t re f o r St r a t e g i c S t u d i e s
Contents
•
•
•
•
•
•
Challenges
Coping with Uncertainty
Strategic Planning
Scenario’s and Analysis
Illustrative Example
In Summary
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Cl i n g e n d a e l Ce n t re f o r St r a t e g i c S t u d i e s
Scenario
An outline or synopsis of a play
The book of an opera
Screenplay
Shootin list
Michael Porter : a scenario is an internally
consistent view on the future,
not a prediction but a possible result
Stories, an old way of organizing knowledge
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Cl i n g e n d a e l Ce n t re f o r St r a t e g i c S t u d i e s
The world according to ..
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Cl i n g e n d a e l Ce n t re f o r St r a t e g i c S t u d i e s
…and a different view
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Anatomy of scenario-exercises
Cl i n g e n d a e l Ce n t re f o r St r a t e g i c S t u d i e s
Boundaries
NATO characteristics
•What aspects of NATO
are subject to change?
‘Wild Cards’
•Spatial: global
•Thematic
• Temporal :2025+
•High-impact events
‘Drivers’
•Trends
•Processes
•Uncertainties
Images of
future
worlds
Plot
Source:
After
2002
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•Captures the dynamics
•Communicates effectively
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Cl i n g e n d a e l Ce n t re f o r St r a t e g i c S t u d i e s
Contents
•
•
•
•
•
•
Challenges
Coping with Uncertainty
Strategic Planning
Scenario’s and Analysis
Illustrative Example
In Summary
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NATO Long Term Requirements Study
Cl i n g e n d a e l Ce n t re f o r St r a t e g i c S t u d i e s
Key input data
WP1 (Security
environments)
• Strategic foresight
• Security trends
• Strategic implications
LTCR derivation process DRR and
the CMF
Mission
Types
(e.g.
Peace
Keeping)
&&
Mission
Types
(e.g.
Peace
Keeping)
Mission
Types
(e.g.
Peace
Keeping)
&
Generic
Planning
Situations
Generic
genericPlanning
PlanningSituations
Situations
Future
worlds
WP2 (Future role of NATO)
• Configuration
• Ambition
WP3 (Future technology)
• Technology trends influencing
military capability needs –
presenting opportunities
• Comparison of technology trends
with trends outlined in existing
LTCRs
WP4 (Future concepts/doctrines)
• Summary of developing concepts
and their future implications (with
ICTs)
• Identification and outline of
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concepts
that need to
be Velingrad
developed
Mission analysis
• Effects
• Capability-Needs statements
Strategic -> Operational
WP5
(Methodology
development)
Logistics
Logistics
Planning
Planning
Armaments
Armaments
Planning
Planning
DRR
Capabilities
Gap Analysis
(existing LTCR vs. capability req.)
Prioritization
Prioritized list of
new LTCR (by 7 TOA)
C3
C3
Planning
Planning
Resource
Resource
Planning
Planning
NATO
NATO
Force
Force
Structure
Structure
Capability
Management
Framework
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Cl i n g e n d a e l Ce n t re f o r St r a t e g i c S t u d i e s
Matrix of Drivers and Characteristics
Characteristics
‘Drivers’
Active US
leadership
Threatening
China
Missions
Membership
...
?
…
Notional examples!!!
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Cl i n g e n d a e l Ce n t re f o r St r a t e g i c S t u d i e s
Axes
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Scenario-exercises
Cl i n g e n d a e l Ce n t re f o r St r a t e g i c S t u d i e s
Organization
Title
Air University, Maxwell AFB
AIRFORCE 2025
Australian government
Defence White Paper(s)
Boeing
Frontiers 2025
Business Council of Australia
Aspire Australia 2025
California Institute of Technology
Which World?
Canadian Defence Forces
A Strategy for 2020
Challenge! Forum
Geopolitics – The Next Wave
Challenge! Forum
Scenarios for 2025
Center for Strategic and International
Studies
Seven Futures Project
French MoD
Plan Prospectif-30
Gallopin, Hammond, Raskin and Swart
Branch Points: Global Scenarios and Human
Choice
Global Business Network
Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and its
Implications for United States National Security
Institute of Nuclear Materials Management
Post 9/11 Scenarios
Northrop Grumman
Defining the Future of National Security: A
Planner’s Guide
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Cl i n g e n d a e l Ce n t re f o r St r a t e g i c S t u d i e s
Identifying driver categories
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Cl i n g e n d a e l Ce n t re f o r St r a t e g i c S t u d i e s
Operationalizing driver categories(2)
Dominant forces
Markets
A
Economic
B
G
F
Political
C
State
Actors
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E
D
Non-State
Actors
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Cl i n g e n d a e l Ce n t re f o r St r a t e g i c S t u d i e s
Future worlds
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Cl i n g e n d a e l Ce n t re f o r St r a t e g i c S t u d i e s
Combining Future Worlds with Planning
Situation Mission Types
Mission Type
FW A
FW B
FW C
FW D
Collective Defence of NATO
territory
V
V
Enforcement Operation –
Counter State
V
V
Defence against Terrorism –
Counter Terrorism
V
Defence Of Economic Lines Of
Communication
V
Evacuation
V
Peace Making
V
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V
V
V
V
V
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Cl i n g e n d a e l Ce n t re f o r St r a t e g i c S t u d i e s
In Summary
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deep uncertainty wrt the security environment;
capabilities of forces be adaptive and flexible;
planning for a flexible approach;
systematic approach to guide decision makers;
scenario’s and scenario-analyses in support.
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Cl i n g e n d a e l Ce n t re f o r St r a t e g i c S t u d i e s
Literature selection
•
van der Heijden, Scenarios, The art of strategic conversation, Wiley and Sons, 1996
•
Lempert a.o., Shaping the next one hundred years, new methods for quantitative,
long-term policy analysis; the RAND Pardee Center, 2003
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Ogilvy & Schwartz, Plotting your scenarios GBN 1998/2004
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Gill Ringland: Scenarios in Business, Wiley, ISBN 0-470-84382-9
Scenarios in Public Policy, Wiley, ISBN 0-470-84383-7
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Schwartz, The art of the long view: Planning for the future in an uncertain world
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Robert van Oorschot : Future Management, the paradox of a controllable future
(2003)
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Global Business Environment Shell International : People and Connections, Global
scenarios to 2020
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S de Spiegeleire, R Korteweg : Military Matters - future NATO’s
NATO review, summer 2006,
•
Lt Col T W Russell, Generic Strategic Campaign Planning, D Strat Plans / JDCC,
May 2005
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Cl i n g e n d a e l Ce n t re f o r St r a t e g i c S t u d i e s
Source: The Far Side, Gary Larson
Long Term
Planning
Conference
The picture’s pretty bleak, gentlemen – The world’s climate is changing,
the mammals are taking over, and we all have a brain the size of a walnut
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