Transcript Tool or Project Title

Dr. Craig Lawrence
BAE Systems
[email protected]
COMPOEX (COnflict Modeling, Planning,
and Outcomes EXperimentation)
Organization, tool and/or project logos
COMPOEX (COnflict Modeling, Planning,
and Outcomes EXperimentation)
BAE Systems
Dr. Craig Lawrence
[email protected]
URL for more detail
This information has been approved for Unlimited Distribution and has been previously published following DISTAR review.
©2009, Materials are the copyright of the individual contributors and organizations they belong to. Use on the OpenVCE.net public web site and
online facilities for open access is approved. Other permitted use of the materials is not implied.
Overview of Tools and Workflow
ONA
SIPR
NATO
OSC
1
4. Commanders and Interagency planners
explore the models to understand the
dynamics and develop Courses of Action
(typically 5-10 lines of effort with over a
hundred discrete actions) to achieve
specified effects (typically 50-100 effects).
COMPOEX
2. … to help construct models of
the power struggle, economy,
infrastructure and information
environments
2
Conflict
Space Modeling
Tool
Over 40 Generic
Models of PMESII
Systems
4
Campaign
Planning Tool
Plans
1. Sources (ONA database,
SIPRNet, Open Source Center,
MIDB, others) are searched to
extract and organize PMESII
information…
Source, Waltz, Ed, “Situation Analysis and
Collaborative Planning for Complex
Operations” in Proc.13th International
Command and Control Research Symposium,
Office of Assistant Secretary of Defense, June
17-19, 2008.
Effects
Option
Exploration Tool
Generic
PMESII
Model
Library
3. Conceptual models are
translated to a multi-resolution
(typically 3-4 levels for a country
system) computational simulation
tailored from a Generic Model
Library
A typical 3-level simulation has over 2500
dynamic casual relationships changing on one-week
time steps for a 6-12 month simulation period.
Lines
of Effort
DIME Actions
5. Results of simulations are
presented as effects (typically 2001000 effects in a 6-month period)
across the PMESII spectrum of over
1500 variables – showing interactions
among the systems and traceable
causal paths.
5
COMPOEX Tool: Campaign Planning Tool
BAE Systems
Dr. Craig Lawrence
[email protected]
URL for more detail
This information has been approved for Unlimited Distribution and has been previously published following DISTAR review.
©2009, Materials are the copyright of the individual contributors and organizations they belong to. Use on the OpenVCE.net public web site and
online facilities for open access is approved. Other permitted use of the materials is not implied.
Campaign Planning Tool
• Enables modular
development of
multiple lines of effort
• Automatically
detects and displays
interdependencies,
assumptions,
resources, actions,
duration of effects,
metrics and next state
• Ability to modify
plans, actions,
interdependencies,
models and next
states based on
measured
performance
Displays an
operational campaign
plan utilizing all
elements of power
Source: Kott, Alexander and Corpac, Peter, Technology To Assist Leaders in Planning And Executing Campaigns In Complex Operational Environments Conflict Modeling, Planning and
Outcomes Experimentation Program (COMPOEX), in Proc. of 12th International Command and Control Research Symposium, Office of Assistant Secretary of Defense, 19 June 2007.
COMPOEX Tool: Option Exploration
Simulation Tool
BAE Systems
Dr. Craig Lawrence
[email protected]
URL for more detail
This information has been approved for Unlimited Distribution and has been previously published following DISTAR review.
©2009, Materials are the copyright of the individual contributors and organizations they belong to. Use on the OpenVCE.net public web site and
online facilities for open access is approved. Other permitted use of the materials is not implied.
Option Exploration Simulation Tool
CAMPAIGN PLANNING
TOOL
OPTION EXPLORATION SIMULATION
Implementing actions distributed to models
Political-Social Power Structure Model
•Entry time-scheduled
actions; identify action
dependencies
•Organize actions by
Lines of Effort (LOE)
•Specify the attributes of
each specific action, the
target of action and the
initiator of the action
•
•Each output variable
is compared to a
reference baseline
Plan
Service
PMESII State Vector (Backplane)
Economic
Models
Infrastructure
Models
Information
Models
Rule of
Law,
Security
Models
Visualization
Services
Implementing actions distributed to models
Source, Waltz, Ed, “Situation Analysis and Collaborative Planning for Complex Operations” in Proc.13th
International Command and Control Research Symposium, Office of Assistant Secretary of Defense, June 1719, 2008.
•PMESII dynamics graphs in
custom user-created views;
automated detection of effects
across all variables
COMPOEX Tool: Model Library
BAE Systems
Dr. Craig Lawrence
[email protected]
URL for more detail
This information has been approved for Unlimited Distribution and has been previously published following DISTAR review.
©2009, Materials are the copyright of the individual contributors and organizations they belong to. Use on the OpenVCE.net public web site and
online facilities for open access is approved. Other permitted use of the materials is not implied.
Model Library
Po-Soc Actor s
PMESII Category
Political
Model Components
Model Paradigm
Regional influences
National government
Government institutions
Local government
Military organization
Criminal Network
Non-Gov’t Orgs
Population segment attitude
Generic agent-based
models of interacting
actors (individuals and
institutions) that
compete for power and
sense the virtual world
state
Value functions or
Bayesian
Economic
National Macroeconomy
Mesoeconomy
Systems dynamics
Systems dynamics
Infrastructure
Electrical Power
Telecommunications
Water service
Sanitation service
Health Care services
Education services
Manufacturing
Agriculture
Construction
Food produce-distribute
Transport Networks
Media sources
Media channels
Security by Rule of Law
Military Deployment
Military Engagement
Insurgent Targeting
Systems dynamics
Systems dynamics
Systems dynamics
Systems dynamics
Systems dynamics
Systems dynamics
Systems dynamics
Systems dynamics
System Dynamics
System Dynamics
Linear Programming
Time-discrete
Time discrete
System Dynamics
System Dynamics
System Dynamics
Bayesian net model
Social
Virtual World Models
Model Library
Catalog,
organized by
the PMESII
domains,
containing prebuilt models at
different levels
of granularity
for integration
within
composed
models
Information
Military
Source, Waltz, Ed, “Situation Analysis and Collaborative Planning for Complex Operations” in Proc.13th International Command
and Control Research Symposium, Office of Assistant Secretary of Defense, June 17-19, 2008.
Modeled functions
Each component is a network of
actors with political, social,
economic and military lines of
influence.
Aggregate attitudes based on
local conditions and media
influences
National aggregate GDP
Interacting economic sector
elements
Infrastructure models represent
performance and capacity, also
may feed meso-economy models
with production and consumption
Nodal distribution networks
Media message production
Message access, flow, impact
Police-Judicial-Prison
Security-Civil impacts
Basic Lanchester attrition
Pol-Civil-Infrastructure. targeting
COMPOEX Modeling Tools
BAE Systems
Dr. Craig Lawrence
[email protected]
URL for more detail
This information has been approved for Unlimited Distribution and has been previously published following DISTAR review.
©2009, Materials are the copyright of the individual contributors and organizations they belong to. Use on the OpenVCE.net public web site and
online facilities for open access is approved. Other permitted use of the materials is not implied.
Model-Building Tools
COMPOEX allows the
composition of the major
categories of simulation
models) that represent:
• Non-physical human
systems (political and
social domains, and the
structure of power and
competitions for power)
• Physical systems
(including economic
systems of productionconsumption,
infrastructure,
information flows, etc.).
Sandbox:
Conceptual Modelbuilding
•
Netica™ Bayes Net
Model-building
Typical model-building
tools include those to
the right
PSTK: Power
Struggle agent
model-building
Vensim™: System
Dynamics ModelBuilding
Source, Waltz, Ed, “Situation Analysis and Collaborative Planning for Complex Operations” in Proc.13th International Command and Control Research Symposium,
Office of Assistant Secretary of Defense, June 17-19, 2008.