Transcript Энергетическая стратегия России (ЭС

Russian Gas Project up to period 2030:
Myth or Reality?
Dr. Alexey Gromov
Deputy General Director
Institute for Energy Strategy
Moscow, Russia
World Independent Energy Network
(Baden-Baden Group)
Prague
April 26-27, 2010
Energy Strategy 2030 in the System of
Documents of the Strategic Development
Long-term forecast of the
development of Russian
economy for the years
2009-2030
Conception of the long-term
development of the Russian
Federation for the year 2020
ES-2030
General scheme of
development of the
gas industry for the
year 2030
Eastern
Gas
Program
General scheme of
allocation of power
generating facilities
for the year 2020
General scheme of
development of the oil
industry for the year
2030
Conception of the state
program for exploration and
exploitation of the
continental shelf of the
Russian Federation
Investment programs of
Program of longterm development
of the fuel and
energy complex of
the Russian Far
East
State program of
energy saving
Strategy of
development of the
power generation
in the Russian Far
East
energy companies
2
Key reference marks for Russian Gas Sector’s
Development up to period 2030
Reference Marks/Directions
2008 г.
1 этап
2 этап
3 этап
Production (extraction)
Share of new areas in total
volume of extraction, %
Yamal
Eastern Siberia and Far East
Share of Independent Gas
Producers in total volume of
extraction, %
3
13-14
21-23
38-39
0
6
9
23-24
2
7-8
12-14
15
17
16
25-26
27
Transport
Growth of length of the main gas
pipelines, % to 2005
3
8-10
13-15
20-23
Share of the reconstructed
working gas pipelines, % from the
general length of gas transmission
system
4
10-11
12-13
25-26
Export
Share of Asia-Pacific Region in
total volume of export, %
0
11-12
16-17
18-19
Share of LNGДоля СПГ in total
volume of export, %
0
4-5
10-11
14-15
3
Прогнозная оценка развития
газовой промышленности до 2030 года
Gas Export
Gas Production
млрд куб.
м meters
billion
cubic
млрд куб. м
1000
billion cubic meters
400
803837
800
641
664
685745
885940
349-368
East
Восток
West
Запад
300
CIS
СНГ
270-294
255.6
247.5
2436
158.4
158168
89.3
332-341
55
7075
600
200
Дальний
Восток
Far East
400
159.8
Sakhalin
в т.ч. о-в
Сахалин
189194
200202
8890
8792
7892
1 этап
2 этап
3 этап
Eastern Siberia
Восточная
Сибирь
Европейские
районы
European regions
200
100
в т.ч.Shtokman
Штокмановское м-е
Томская
Tomsk область
region
Tyumen region
Тюменская
область
95.8
в т.ч.
Надым-Пуртазовский
р-н
Nadym-Pur-Taz
region
0
2005 г.
(факт)
2005
2008 г.
(факт)
2008
1 этап
1 stage
2 этап
2 stage
0
3 этап
2005 г.
3 stage 2005
(факт)
2008 г.
2008
(факт)
1 stage 2 stage 3 stage
4
Key projects for Russian Gas Sector’s
Development up to period 2030
Project
Project mission
Terms of
realization
Yamal
Replace old fields with falling
production
2015-2030
150-170
Shtokman
LNG production and export
for US and Europe Gas
Market
2017-2018
(first stage)
25-30
(first stage 12-15)
Nord Stream
Supply reliability
2011
(first stage)
12-14
(first stage 6-7)
South Stream
Supply reliability
2015-2020
34-35
Eastern Gas
Program
Export flow’s diversification
Gasification
of
Eastern
Siberia and Far East
2015-2030
80-90
Total
(ES-2030)
Expected investments
(USD bln’ 2007)
560-590
5
Disturbing results of 2009…
700
664,9
675
12%
250
650
225
625
583,6
583,9
195,4
200
575
млрд. куб. м
млрд куб. м
600
550
525
500
168,3
175
158,4
24%
150
475
125
450
120,3
425
100
400
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
годы
Gas production
(Russia)
Добыча
газа в РФ,
всего
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Export вtoдальнее
Europe
Экспорт
зарубежье
Export всего
(total)
Экспорт,
(GAZPROM)
ВGas
т.ч.production
Группа Газпром
Gas production has fallen to
level of 2000…
Gas export to Europe was
reduced to a quarter…
6
Monitoring of ES-2030 realization
Fact
Probability
purpose achievements
to 2013-2015
Reference Marks
Reference Mark for
first stage of ES-2030
(2013-2015)
2008
2009
Share of new areas in total volume of
extraction, %
13-14
2
3
2016
20%
6
0
0
2014
50%
7-8
2
3
2016-2018
20%
20
17
20,9
2010
80%
8-10
3
4
2013
80%
Share of the reconstructed working
gas pipelines, % from the
general length of gas
transmission system
10-11
4
6
2014
60%
Share of Asia-Pacific Region in total
volume of export, %
11-12
0
4,4
2016
20%
4-5
0
4,4
2014
50%
Yamal
Eastern Siberia and Far East
Share of Independent Gas Producers
in total volume of extraction, %
Growth of length of the main gas
pipelines, % to 2005
Share of LNGДоля СПГ in total
volume of export, %
Expected year
achievement
7
Risk Degree
High
High
Medium
Low
Risks (uncertainties) for Russian Gas
Sector’s Development
Uncertainty for export expectations
Uncertainty for export prices and contracts
Uncertainty for transit
Uncertainty for technologies
8
Uncertainty for Export Expectations
400
Russian Gas Export forecast up to period 2030
375
15-20%
368
349
350
Europe: competition growth
(LNG, Nabucco)
325
млрд куб. м
Factors of decrease in
export expectations
300
300
275
US:
refuse of future Russian
LNG (the boom of shale
gas production)
250
225
Asia-Pacific: competition growth
(Central Asia)
234
200
203
175
150
2008 (факт)
2009 (факт)
2010
2015
2020
2030
Прогноз
экспорта
газа (верхний(high
уровеньlevel
по ЭС-2030)
Russian
gasроссийского
export forecast
from
Прогноз экспорта российского газа (нижний уровень по ЭС-2030)
ES-2030)
Russian gas export forecast (low level from ES-2030)
Прогноз экспорта российского газа (ожидания ГУ ИЭС)
Russian gas export forecast (IES expectations)
Risk of decrease in export expectations on 15-20 %
9
Uncertainty for export prices and contracts
Factors of decrease in price
expectations
Forecast for Russian gas export prices
up to period 2030
(The Ministry of Economics of Russia)
800
USD/1000 cub. m
High volatility of oil prices
726,5
Rapid development of spot trade
trade in natural gas
700
долл. США за тыс. куб.м
600
483,3
500
474,7
Decrease in the regional prices
on LNG
406,1
400
354,2
298,2
300
351,9
251,4
Price situation in 2009
376,9
292,9
Price,
USD./bln. cub. m
200
Russian gas
(long-term contracts, Europe)
100
0
2008 (факт)
2009 (факт)
2010
2015
2020
2030
Средняя цена российского газа (верхний уровень)
288
LNG (US, Henry Hub)
147
LNG (Great Britain, NBP)
142
LNG (Japan, Korea)
260
LNG (Chine)
160
Средняя цена российского газа (нижний уровень)
Price expectations are overestimated…
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Uncertainty for transit
• Russia-Ukraine
- long-term reliability of transit
- deterioration of Ukrainian Gas transmission system
- Transit price for Russian gas
• Russia – Central Asia
- Sufficiency of gas reserves
- Competition for Central Asia’s gas with Chine
- Competition for Central Asia’s gas with Europe
(Nabucco)
- Throughput expansion of Gas transmission system between Russia and
Central Asia (Pre-Caspian pipeline)
11
Uncertainty for technologies
• Shale gas production:
outlook for Europe and Chine
• Limits for Renewables in Europe
prices, economy, ecology
• Gas production in Arctic region
climate changes
• LNG production in Arctic region
climate changes
12
Overcoming ways to uncertainties
for Russian Gas Sector’s Development
•
Change Изменение вектора развития газовой отрасли
- From export orientation to the domestic market
- From deliveries of fuel gas to gas processing
- From pipeline to LNG
- Change of principles for Arctic development : a support on ecological and economic
expediency
•
Revision of investment projects
- Selection of priority projects from among declared in ES-2030
- Refusal of a number of ineffective projects-giants (the Southern stream, etc.)
•
Flexibility of gas export policy
- Revision of pricing system in long-term contracts of Gazprom
- Flexibility increase in mutual relations with Ukraine and Central Asia
•
Technological breakthrough
- Decrease in the cost price of extraction of natural gas on the Arctic shelf
- Development of LNG infrastructure
- Start of projects on extraction of nonconventional gas (shale gas, low-pressure gas, ets)
13
Thank you
for your attention!
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