Transcript eastern vector in es-2030

Key points of Russian energy strategy
up to 2030 – between Europe and Asia
Dr. Alexey Gromov
Deputy General Director
Institute for Energy Strategy
Moscow, Russia
The future of the global gas market:
an EU-Russian perspective
Brainstorming workshop
Milan, 30 september – 1 October, 2010
Energy Strategy 2030 in the System of
Documents of the Strategic Development
Long-term forecast of the
development of Russian
economy for the years
2009-2030
Conception of the long-term
development of the Russian
Federation for the year 2020
ES-2030
General scheme of
development of the
gas industry for the
year 2030
Eastern
Gas
Program
General scheme of
allocation of power
generating facilities
for the year 2020
General scheme of
development of the oil
industry for the year
2030
Conception of the state
program for exploration and
exploitation of the
continental shelf of the
Russian Federation
Investment programs of
Program of longterm development
of the fuel and
energy complex of
the Russian Far
East
State program of
energy saving
Strategy of
development of the
power generation
in the Russian Far
East
energy companies
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ENERGY STRATEGY 2030
approved by decree N° 1715-r of the Government of the Russian Federation of 13.11.2009
1ST STAGE
Share of Energy sector in Economy
2009
2ND STAGE
2013
2015
3RD STAGE
2020
2022
2030
Overcoming the crisis in the
Economy and Energy sector
Modernization of Energy sector
Increase of power efficiency and
energy saving in the Economy and
Energy sector
Innovative development of Energy
sector
New oil and gas fields development
(Arctic shelf, Eastern Siberia and
the Far East)
Highly effective use of traditional
power resources
Switch to the Energy of the Future
Growth of national economy and quality of life of the population
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Foreign energy policy and ES-2030 targets:
Eastern and Western vectors
Western Vector
(European
Market)
Eastern Vector
(Asian-Pacific
Market)
Russian Gas Export, 2009
Russian Gas Export, 2030 (projected)
- EU market is essential for Russian gas export (75%)
- Western Vector accounts for 96% of Russian gas export
(EU + other Europe)
- Russia seeks for export diversification
- Russia promotes eastern vector of energy export
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Eastern Vector for Russian
Energy Policy
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EASTERN VECTOR IN ES-2030: NEW SIDES OF “OLD” TASK
Road Map of implementation of ES-2030 : Eastern vector
Eastern vector
task №19 «Increase in the share of the Asia-Pacific
countries in the structure of the Russian energy export to 16–
17%»
task №10 «Implementation of a complex of program
measures for petrochemistry and gas-chemistry development
in the Eastern Siberia and Far East»
task № 17 «Extended reproduction and attraction of
human resources for development of new areas of the Eastern
Siberia and Far East»
Key initiatives in the Russian energy sector:
Eastern vector
Energy infrastructure: development and diversification
ESPO pipeline, Eastern Gas Program,
petro- and gas-chemistry development
Development of oil and gas complexes
in Eastern regions of Russia
Sakalin, Yakutia, Magadan, Irkutsk and
Krasnoyarsk regions
Exploitation of the oil and gas potential of the Northern
regions of Russia and Arctic shelf
Non-fuel energy
Energy saving
Shelf of the East Arctic, reanimation of
the Northern Sea Way
Large-scale development of hydro
energy and renewables
Modernization of electric power and
heat supply systems in the Region
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THE EAST IS A KEY DIRECTION OF DIVERSIFICATION
OF THE RUSSIAN EXPORT
Forecast of gas export
400
Gas export in Asia-Pacific
region, % of total export
353-390
336-359
350
300
55
310-311
100
80
250
60
40
200
20
0
256,0
bcm
7075
24-36
189194
201
88-90
8792
7892
1st Stage
2nd Stage
3rd Stage
159,8
158168
95,8
2005
150
19-20
0
2005
2030
100
50
0
Europe
Asia-Pacific
итого
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KEY PROJECTS IN THE EASTERN SIBERIA AND THE FAR EAST
 Eastern Gas Program
 Natural gas
Export to
China
 Sakhalin development
 LNG Projects in Sakhalin
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FIRST RESULTS OF ES-2030: CAREFUL OPTIMISM
2008
2009
Strategic
Indicator for
the first stage
of ES-2030
(2013-2015)
Share of Eastern Siberia and the
Far East in gas production
2%
3,7%
7-8%
LNG share in gas export
0%
3,5%
4-5%
Share of the countries of the AsiaPacific Region in the structure of
gas export
0%
3,5%
11-12%
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Western Vector for Russian
Energy Policy
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WESTERN VECTOR IN ES-2030: KEY PROJECTS & GOALS
Nord Stream (started in April 2010)
task №19 Increase the Russian gas
export to European market
160 bcm in 2008
120 bcm in 2009
2030 target - 200 bcm
task №21 Promote the
gas pricing
system in Europe, including both long-term
and spot contracts
task № 22-23 Bilateral investment in gas
projects
 South Stream (projected)
 Shtokman (projected)
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DISTURBING RESULTS OF 2009
ON EUROPEAN GAS MARKET
700
664,9
675
12%
250
650
225
625
583,6
583,9
195,4
200
575
млрд. куб. м
млрд куб. м
600
550
525
500
168,3
175
158,4
24%
150
475
125
450
120,3
425
100
400
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
годы
Gas production
(Russia)
Добыча
газа в РФ,
всего
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Экспорт
дальнее
зарубежье
Exportв to
Europe
Экспорт,
Export всего
(total)
(GAZPROM)
ВGas
т.ч.production
Группа Газпром
Gas production has fallen to
level of 2000
Gas export to Europe was
reduced to a quarter
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LONG-TERM EXPORT DYNAMICS & REASONS
Composition of EU gas import
Source: EEGA
Factors of decrease in export expectations
Price situation in 2009
Price,
USD/bcm
Europe:

Competition growth (LNG, new pipelines)

Pricing change (spot market vs. long-term
contracts)
Russian gas
(long-term contracts, Europe)
288
LNG (US, Henry Hub)
147

Renewables & energy efficiency
LNG (Great Britain, NBP)
142

Geopolitics (Nabucco, anti-Gazprom rules
in 3rd Gas Directive etc.)
LNG (Japan, Korea)
260
LNG (Chine)
160
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Conclusions
9
bcm
EXPORT EXPECTATIONS VS. REALITY
400
Russian Gas Export forecast up to period 2030
375
368
350
349
Europe:
 Competition growth
300
US:
 refuse of future Russian LNG (the
boom of shale gas production)
325
300
275
Factors of decrease in
export expectations
15-20%
250
225
200
Asia-Pacific:
 competition growth (Central Asia)
234
203
175
150
2008 (факт) 2009 (факт)
2010
2015
2020
2030
Прогноз экспорта российского газа (верхний уровень по ЭС-2030)
Russian gas export forecast (high level from ES-2030)
Прогноз
экспорта
российского
газа (нижний
уровень
по ЭС-2030)
Russian
gas
export forecast
(low
level
from ES-2030)
Russian gas export forecast (IES expectations)
Прогноз экспорта российского газа (ожидания ГУ ИЭС)
Risk of decrease in export on 15-20 %
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BALANCING EASTERN AND WESTERN VECTORS:
TASKS FOR RUSSIAN ENERGY POLICY
•
From export orientation to the domestic market
•
Cost reduction in Russian natural gas industry
•
Revision of investment projects
- Selection of priority projects among declared in ES-2030
- Refusal of a number of ineffective projects-giants (the Southern stream, etc.)
•
Flexibility of gas export policy
- Revision of pricing system in long-term contracts of Gazprom
- Flexibility increase in mutual relations with Ukraine and Central Asia
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ISSUES FOR RUSSIA – EU RELATIONSHIPS
- EU gas market forecast
- EU secure demand for Russian natural gas
- The real need for new pipeline project in relation to future
demand
- The transit problem & politics toward Ukraine & Belarus
- 3rg Gas Directive & Regulative issues
- Bilateral investment in gas fields, pipelines, and marketing
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Thank you
for your attention!
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