Transcript Slide 1

ENERGY OUTLOOK OF THAILAND
Piyasvasti Amranand
Kasikorn Asset Management
Thai-Japanese Association
Dusit Thani Hotel, Bangkok
30 August 2005
HIGH WORLD PRICE OF OIL HAS SEVERE IMPACT ON THAI ECONOMY
WHETHER RETAIL PRICES ARE ADJUSTED OR NOT
NET ENERGY IMPORT
12.00%
฿800,000
฿700,000
10.00%
฿600,000
8.00%
6.00%
฿400,000
%
Million Baht
฿500,000
฿300,000
4.00%
฿200,000
2.00%
฿100,000
0.00%
฿0
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
VALUE OF NET ENERGY IMPORT (LHS)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
NET ENERGY IMPORT TO GDP (RHS)
The proportion of net commercial energy import (including use as raw
materials) rose from 53.7% in 2000 to 59.4% in 2004
SHORTAGE OF INFRASTRUCTURE SERVICES IS DEVELOPING
The reserve margin of the power system has fallen rapidly during the past two years as power
demand has increased continuously. Natural gas pipeline has also reached full capacity. This
has resulted in significant rise in fuel oil use in power generation
USE OF FUEL OIL IN POWER GENERATION
RESERVE MARGIN OF POWER SYSTEM (%)
40
2,500
35
2,000
30
Milllion Litres
25
20
15
10
1,500
1,000
500
5
0
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Oc
t
D- e 00
c0
-Fe 0
b
-Ap 01
r
J- u 01
n
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A
g
-Oc 01
t
D- e 01
c
-Fe 01
b
-Ap 02
r
J- u 02
n0
-u 2
A
g
-Oc 02
t
D- e 02
c
-Fe 02
b
-Ap 03
r
J- u 03
n
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A
g
-Oc 03
t
D- e 03
c0
-Fe 3
b
-Ap 04
r
J- u 04
n
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A
g
-Oc 04
t
D- e 04
c
-Fe 04
b
-Ap 05
r
J- u 05
n0
-u 5
A
g0
5
Million Cubic Metres
SHORTAGE OF WATER IN THE EASTERN REGION ALSO
RESULTS FROM INSUFFICIENT INVESTMENT
WATER LEVELS IN DOK KRAI & NONG PLALAI RESERVOIRS
250
200
150
100
50
0
Factories in Rayong
THE CONSEQUENCES ARE ECONOMIC SLOW DOWN AND REEMERGENCE OF CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT
GDP GROWTH (% YoY)
Mil.US$
12.0%
15.0%
10.0%
10.0%
8.0%
5.0%
6.0%
0.0%
4.0%
-5.0%
2.0%
-10.0%
2001- 2001- 2001- 2001- 2002- 2002- 2002- 2002- 2003- 2003- 2003- 2003- 2004- 2004- 2004- 2004- 2005Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
GDP
Manufacturing
Agriculture (RHS)
Other Non Agriculture
Mil.US$
2,500
2,500
2,000
2,000
1,500
1,500
1,000
1,000
500
500
0
0
Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05
-500
-500
-1,000
-1,000
-1,500
0.0%
Trade Balance and Current Account Balance
Trade balance
-2,000
-2,500
Current account balance
Source: BoT
-1,500
-2,000
-2,500
WHAT SHOULD WE DO?
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Promote energy efficiency and allow energy prices to reflect their true economic costs
Encourage diversification of energy supplies and oil substitution in certain sectors
Promote the use of appropriate types of renewable energy
Prepare for new energy technology for the long term
Ensure sufficient investment in energy supplies in an efficient and cost effective manner
to satisfy growing demand
Ensure efficient management of the energy sector: competition, deregulation and
privatization
Ensure appropriate and sustainable financing of energy investment: long term savings
from domestic sources
THE WORLD STILL HAS PLENTY OF OIL BUT IT IS NOT BEING
DEVELOPED FAST ENOUGH
CRUDE OIL RESERVES TO PRODUCTION RATIO (YEARS)
PROVED OIL RESERVES IN 2003
Norway
Brazil
Algeria
Qatar
Mexico
Canada
China
USA
Nigeria
Libya
Russia
Venezuela
Kuwait
UAE
Iraq
Iran
Saudi Arabia
10.1
10.6
11.3
15.2
16.0
16.9
23.7
30.7
34.3
36.0
0
50
41.0
World
16.6
Asia Pacific
Africa
33.2
Europe & Eurasia
17.1
S. & C.-America
69.1
78.0
41.5
North America
96.5
97.8
100
12.2
88.1
Middle East
150
Thousand Million Barrels
73.3
Saudi Arabia
115.0
130.7
200
250
92.9
Iran
262.7
300
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
• World proved crude oil reserve (P1) is estimated to be around 1,051-1,266 billion barrels
• If undiscovered oil and recoverable reserves from existing sources due to improvement in technology are
•
•
90
included, total Ultimate Recoverable Resources should be around 2,628 billion barrels
60 % of world oil reserve is located in 5 countries in the Middle East
Proportion of crude oil production by OPEC Middle Eastern countries is expected to increase from 29% in
2004 to 43% in 2030
100
WORLD OIL DEMAND HAS BEEN INCREASING RAPIDLY PARTICULARLY USA AND CHINA
GROWTH IN OIL DEMAND
1.2
1
Mil ion Barrels /Day
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
Source: IEA
2002
OECD Pacific
2003
North America
2004
OECD Europe
2005
China
Others
•World oil consumption rose by 2.89 mbd in 2004 or 3.6%
•China’s oil demand rose by 15.4% in 2004 accounting for 30% of increase in world consumption
•The rise in demand is due to rapid world economic growth
•Although demand growth in 2005 has slowed down, it still increases by 1.58 mbd or 1.9%
FALLING OPEC’S SPARE CAPACITY CAUSES OIL PRICE TO
CONTINUOUSLY ESCALATE
5
70
4.5
65
4
60
3.5
55
3
50
2.5
45
2
40
1.5
35
1
30
0.5
25
0
Ma
y
03
-
3
l0
Ju -
Se
p
03
-
03
v
No -
04
n
Ja -
04
r
Ma -
Ma
y
04
-
4
l0
Ju -
Se
p
04
-
04
v
No -
05
n
Ja -
05
r
Ma -
Ma
y
05
-
Source: Spa re ca pa ci ty from IEA
OPEC Spare Capacity
Brent
Any short term supply disruption could cause “price spike”
5
l0
Ju -
20
US$/Barrel
Million Barrels /Day
OPEC Spare Capacity and Oil Price
SPECULATION ONLY PLAYS A SECONDARY ROLE IN OIL PRICE RISE
Oil Price vs. Net Open Interest Position of Non-Commercial in NYMEX (Futures+Options)
(Jan. 2003 - 23 August 2005)
160,000
80
140,000
70
120,000
60
80,000
50
60,000
40
40,000
30
20,000
0
Jan-03
-20,000
US$/Barrel
Thousand Barrela
100,000
Apr-03
Jul-03
Oct-03
Jan-04
Apr-04
Jul-04
Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
20
10
-40,000
-60,000
0
Source: COT, CFTC
Reportable Net Long Position
WTI
•“Non-Commercial” consist of financial institutions, banks, insurance companies, mutual
funds, private funds, pension funds and hedge funds
•During the period March-October 2004, crude oil price rose from $37 per barrel to $55, but
net long position of Non-Commercial traders significantly declined
SPARE REFINING CAPACITY HAS ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY DECLINED
AND NOT MUCH NEW CAPACITY IS EXPECTED IN NEXT 2 YEARS
GROSS REFINING MARGIN AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
9
1. 13
8
1. 11
7
1. 09
GRM US$ /BBL
6
1. 07
5
4
1. 05
3
1. 03
2
1. 01
1
0. 99
0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
-1
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
20058M
-2
2006
0. 97
0. 95
GRM (Complex)
GRM (Simple)
Oil Consumption/Refining Capacity in Asia Pacific
ESTIMATES OF OIL PRODUCTION PEAK VARIES FROM 2006 TO 2037
• 70% of current crude oil production is from
•
•
•
•
fields which are at least 30 years old
20% of current crude oil production comes
from 14 major sources with average age of
over 50 years
Oil production from many important fields
have passed their peaks
New discoveries have declined and new
discoveries during the past 20 years amount to
less than half the level of consumption
Crude oil reserve estimates are exaggerated
due to political reasons
Projected Date
Source Projection
2006-7
Bakhitari
2007-9
Simmons
After 2007
Skrebowski
Before 2009
Deffeyes
Before 2010
Goodstein
Around 2010
Campbell
After 2010
WEC
2010-20
Laherre
2016
EIA (Nominal)
After 2020
CERA
2025 or later
Shell
No visible peak
Lynch
Source: Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation &Risk Management โดย R.L. Hirsch et al and EIA
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SUPPLIES COULD TAKE MANY YEARS
• New technologies have increased
CHANGE IN NON-OPEC CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION
1.0
0.89
0.94
Million Barrela /Day
0.59
0.33
0.23
0.37
0.09 0.09
0.0
0.04 0.11
0.03
2003
2004
-0.24
Source: IEA
0.54
0.42
0.5
-0.5
•
0.23
0.08
-0.18
0.05
0
2005
-0.35
OECD Former USSR Latin America Africa Other Non OPEC
2006
•
drilling success rate from 25% during
1971-76 to 40% at present
New sources of oil production include
Deep Sea (Africa, Brazil, Gulf of
Mexico), Russia, and Caspian region
There is also enormous potential in the
Middle East: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait,
UAE, Iraq, Iran. The main problem is
lack of investment: very little
investment and exploration activities
over the past 10 years and reluctance to
allow foreign investment
REAL PRICE OF OIL IS STILL LOWER THAN LEVEL DURING 1979-85
้ ้ามนของโลก
ราคาน ้ามนด
ั
ิบกบการเปล
ั
ยนแปลงการใช
ี่
น
ั
90. 0
10. 0
80. 0
8. 0
6. 0
60. 0
4. 0
50. 0
2. 0
%
เหรียญสหรัฐต่อบาเรล
70. 0
40. 0
0. 0
30. 0
-2. 0
20. 0
ราคาน ้าม นด
ั
ิบในราคาปี 2003
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
-6. 0
1969
0. 0
1967
-4. 0
1965
10. 0
้ ้าม นของโลก
การใชน
ั
•Price of Brent during period 1979-85 adjusted for inflation would be equivalent to oil price of $45-76
per barrel today. Thus one may not see any serious conservation effort until oil price reaches $70.
•High oil price should eventually cause economic slow down thereby lowering oil consumption as well
as encourage energy efficiency and oil substitution. The process could take many years
THERE ARE STILL OTHER SOURCES OF PETROLEUM
•Extra heavy crude, oil shale,
tar sands, bitumen:
estimated reserves of 7
trillion barrels with expected
oil production of 3.8 mbd in
2010 and 10.1 mbd in 2030
(IEA)
•LNG, Gas to Liquid – GTL
(production to rise from 0.4
mbd in 2010 to 2.4 mbd in
2030)
PROVED NATURAL GAS RESERVES IN 2003
Kuwait
Canada
Netherlands
Egypt
China
Uzbekistan
Kazakhstan
Malaysia
Norway
Australia
Indonesia
Turkmenista
Iraq
Venezuela
Algeria
Nigeria
USA
UAE
Saudi Arabia
Qatar
Iran
Russia
1.56
1.66
1.67
1.76
1.82
1.85
1.90
2.41
2.46
2.55
2.56
2.90
3.11
4.15
4.52
5.00
5.23
6.06
6.68
0
5
Source: BP
25.77
26.69
10
15
20 25 30
Tril ion Cubic Metres
47.00
35
40
45
50
COAL STILL HAS FUTURE DESPITE GLOBAL WARMING
PROVED COAL RESERVES IN 2003
11,929
Million Tons
Brazil
Poland
22,160
22,345
Other
Kazakhstan
Ukraine
South Africa
34,000
34,153
49,520
66,000
Germany
Australia
India
China
82,090
84,396
114,500
157,010
Russia
USA
249,994
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Source: BP
Clean coal technology eg. Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle ( IGCC), “ZeroEmission” (FutureGen)
COST REFLECTIVE ENERGY PRICE IS THE BEST WAY OF
CONSERVING ENERGY
Gasoline Sale and Retail Price
Diesel Sale and Retail Price
24
1800
22
18
Million Litres
20
1600
28
680
26
20
620
18
16
1400
14
580
1300
12
560
1200
10
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Diesel Sale (3-month ma)
Jul-04
Retail Diesel Price
Jan-05
Jul-05
22
640
1500
Jan-02
24
660
Baht /Litre
Million Litres
1700
700
600
16
14
12
540
Jan-02
10
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Gasoline Sale (3-month ma)
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Retail Gasoline Price
Diesel consumption during July-August 2005 fell by 5.7% from the same period of previous year
Baht /Litre
1900
DIESEL PRICE INCREASE SHOULD HAVE ONE TIME IMPACT ON
CPI OVER 2-3 MONTH PERIOD AFTER PRICE ADJUSTMENT
1990
2005
CHANGE IN CPI FROM PREVIOUS MONTH (%)
CHANGE IN CPI FROM PREVIOUS MONTH (%)
2.50%
2.00%
1.50%
%
1.00%
0.50%
0.00%
-0.50%
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May.
Jun.
Jul.
-1.00%
Average 1989-94
1990
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1.80%
1.60%
1.40%
1.20%
1.00%
0.80%
0.60%
0.40%
0.20%
0.00%
-0.20%
-0.40%
Jan Feb Mar
Apr
May Jun
average 99-03
Jul
2005
Aug Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
2004
•Oil price adjustment of 33.87% in September 1990 caused CPI during Q4 of 1990 to rise above normal level by 1.8%
•Oil price adjustment during March-July 2005 is expected to increase CPI by 3% above normal level over 6 month period
ALTHOUGH THE GOVERNMENT HAS CEASED SUBSIDISATION OF GASOLINE
AND DIESEL PRICES, IT HAS RESORTED TO INTERVENTION THROUGH
GOVERNMENT OWNED OIL COMPANIES
GASOLINE PRICES
28
75
27
26
70
65
24
23
60
22
55
21
50
2-May2005
199
12-May2005
22-May2005
1-Jun2005
11-Jun2005
21-Jun2005
1-Jul2005
Spot Price of ULG 95 In Singapore (LHS)
11-Jul2005
21-Jul2005
31-Jul2005
10-Aug2005
Retail price of ULG 95 (RHS)
20-Aug2005
20
Baht/Litre
US$/Barrel
25
COAL IS STILL THE MOST IMPORTANT SOURCE OF FUEL FOR POWER
GENERATION IN THE WORLFD (THAILAND: 12-15%)
Hydro
อื่นๆ
17.5%
Coal
38.1%
Natural Gas
17.1%
Oil
Nuclear
8.5%
17.2%
1.6% 1.6%
Others
DEPENDENCE OF NATURAL GAS IN POWER GENERATION IN
THAILAND IS VERY HIGH
% of NG in Power Generation VS R/P Ratio in 1999
100
Brunei
% of NG in Power Generation
90
80
Malaysia
70
Thailand 2001
60
Thailand 1999
Russian Federation
50
40
30
Hong Kong
Italy
New Zealand
Indonesia
Europe
Mexico
Japan
20
10
Former Soviet Union
UK
Vietnam
USA
Singapore
Total World
N. America
S.Korea
Africa
Australia
Germany
Canada
S.&C. America
India
China
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
R/P Ratio
60
70
80
90
100
A LARGE PORTION OF ENERGY SOURCES FOR NEW
CAPACITY IS UNSPECIFIED
E GAT GE NE RATION B Y E NE RGY S OURC E S
270,000
250,000
230,000
GWh
210,000
190,000
170,000
150,000
130,000
110,000
90,000
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Gas, Coal, Oil & Others
2008
Laos
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Unspecified Energy Sources
However, 70% of new capacity during the period 2005-2015 is expected to be natural gas fired and 20% from
projects in neighboring countries. New sources of gas supply include LNG from 2011
NUCLEAR IS AN OPTION WHICH SHOULD BE SERIOUSLY EXPLORED
Use of Nuclear Energy
Source: BP
Countries with
expanding
nuclear
capacity
Countries
closing down
nuclear power
plants
Countries in
process of
making
decision
China, South
Korea, Japan,
India, France,
Finland
Germany,
Belgium,
Sweden
USA, Canada,
UK, Czech,
Turkey
PROMOTE APPROPRIATE TYPE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
Technology
Levelized Power Price at Different IRR
(Baht/kWh)
6%
8%
10%
11%
Solar Cell (3.016kW)
15.68
17.18
18.66
19.39
Wind (1.5 MW)
3.65
3.94
4.23
4.37
Biomass (6 MW)
2.60
2.63
2.72
2.76
Biogas (pig farms with 12,000
pigs)
2.60
2.60
2.61
2.68
Gasifier (120 kW)
2.80
2.88
2.95
2.98
- Digestion
9.09
9.88
10.67
11.06
- Incineration
17.24
18.57
19.89
20.54
- Land-fill
4.26
4.96
5.65
5.99
2.60
2.65
2.77
2.82
Municipal waste (100 ton/day)
Palm waste (6MW)
•Abolish RPS to separate
renewable energy from IPP
•Promote renewable energy
through SPP and VSPP
regulations, possibly with
support from Energy
Conservation Fund
•Expected new capacity:
400 MW over next 5 years
POWER DEMAND CONTINUES TO EXPAND AT 6-8% PER ANNUM:2004
GROWTH AT 7.75% AND GROWTH IN FIRST 7 MONTH OF 2005 AT 6.9%
Source: EPPO
POWER DEMAND IS RELATED TO GDP BUT RELATIONSHIP IS COMPLEX
POWER DEMAND AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
20.0
15.0
10.0
-Q
4
04
20
-Q
1
04
20
-Q
2
20
03
-Q
3
20
02
-Q
4
01
20
-Q
1
01
20
-Q
2
00
20
-Q
3
99
19
-Q
4
98
19
-Q
2
-Q
1
98
19
96
97
19
19
95
-Q
4
-5.0
-Q
3
0.0
19
%
5.0
-10.0
-15.0
-20.0
Total Generation
MEA
PEA
GDP
Electric energy demand and peak demand grew at 1.2x and 0.99x to GDP growth respectively
during the last 10 years. Lower elasticity of peak demand is due to TOU pricing and DSM
PEAK DEMAND IN 2011 SHOULD BE AROUND 30,000-32,000 MW
Peak Demand (MW)
Sep.98-MER
Jan.04-LEG
Jan.04-MEG
Actual
2000
15,254
14,918
2001
16,214
16,126
2002
17,308
16,681
2003
18,399
18,121
2004
19,611
19,129
19,600
19,373
2005
20,818
20,162
21,143
20,538
2006
22,168
21,123
22,738
2007
23,728
22,129
24,344
2008
25,450
23,132
26,048
2009
27,232
24,192
27,852
2010
28,912
25,274
29,808
2011
30,578
26,404
31,844
DESPITE ECONOMIC SLOW DOWN RESERVE MARGIN OF THE POWER
SYSTEM WILL DROP BELOW 15% BY 2006
RESERVE MARGIN (% )
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2002
2003
PDP Feb.03
2004
2005
PDP Aug.04-MEG
2006
2007
2008
PDP Aug.04-MEG (Likely)
2009
2010
2011
Minimum Reserve Margin
•Reserve margin is falling faster than expected in PDP of February 2003 and will be below
15% in 2006 despite economic slow down as Peak Cut of 500 MW is unlikely to be achieved
•Delay in new capacity in 2006-07 (BLCP, Gulf) could jeopardize power system reliability
ENERGY SECTOR INVESTMENT OF 574 BILLION BAHT DURING 2005-8
ENERGY SECTOR INVESTMENT (Million Baht)
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2004
2005
2006
Gas Pipeline
Power Generation
2007
PEA
2008
MEA
Apart from these there are also investments in oil & gas exploration and production, gas
separation plants, and refinery expansion as excess capacity will disappear within 2 years
NEW POWER GENERATION CAPACITY OF 13,230 MW REQUIRED FOR 2011-15
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2008
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2004-15
EGAT
962
0
0
0
700
1,400
700
0
0
0
0
0
3,762
Source: EGAT PDP 2004
New Generation Capacity
Existing IPP New Capacity
27
0
20
0
673
0
1,537
0
2,100
0
920
0
0
0
0
2,940
0
2,205
0
2,205
0
2,940
0
2,940
5,278
13,230
Total
989
20
673
1,537
2,800
2,320
700
2,940
2,205
2,205
2,940
2,940
22,270
•Existing IPPs include
BLCP,Gulf, Union, Nam Theun
2, SPPs
•EGAT’s power plants consist of
Krabi, Lamthakong, Songkla
and expansions of North Bkk,
South Bkk, Bangpakong
•New capacity includes RPS and
projects outside Thailand
•Lower demand growth than
MEG could reduce capacity
requirement in 2011 by up to
2,000 MW
PRIVATE SECTOR INVESTMENT: BEST WAY TO MEET FUTURE DEMAND GROWTH
• Given that the government has no policy to promote consumer choice in the near future,
•
•
•
•
competitive bidding for new generation capacity is the best way of meeting future
demand growth in an efficient manner.
In order to have Commercial Operation Date by 2011, IPP solicitation should be issued in
early 2006. PPAs should be signed in 2007-H2.
Clear and fair terms and conditions for next IPP solicitation are crucial for success of
competitive bidding: role of EGAT (bidding in competition with IPPs and/or capacity set
aside for EGAT etc.) and other state enterprises or subsidiaries, form of power purchase
agreement, period and capacity to be solicited, type of fuel, Renewable Energy Portfolio
Standard (RPS)
Allocation of 50% of new capacity to EGAT is simplistic with no clear rationale, and will
affect competition in IPP bidding
IPP solicitation with long term power purchase agreement under single buyer model does
not need an independent regulator. Existing framework with EPPO as the regulator is
sufficient
EGAT PRIVATIZATION: A SIMPLISTIC CONVERSION OF PUBLIC
MONOPOLY INTO PRIVATE MONOPOLY
• Enhanced Single Buyer (ESB) Structure of power supply industry with no
•
•
•
unbundling between generation and transmission and allocation of 50% of
new capacity to EGAT : competition on an unequal footing for new
generation capacity and difficult to introduce other forms of competition at a
later stage.
No independent regulatory body established under Act of Parliament. Only
an interim regulator established with no power to regulate private
companies. Regulating EGAT after privatization will be difficult.
No clear guidelines and regulations on base tariff, tariff adjustment
mechanism (Ft), and cross subsidy yet. Credibility of regulator and
implementation of Ft (no government intervention???). Valuation crucially
depends on tariff.
Relationship with subsidiaries (EGCOMP, RATCH)
CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT WILL FALL IN H2-2005 BUT COULD REEMERGE IF INVESTMENT IN MEGA-PROJECTS PICK UP
Current Account Deficit and Investment
500,000
SAVINGS TO GDP (%)
2,550,000
30.0%
300,000
1,550,000
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
1,050,000
-300,000
Investment (M.Baht )
Deficit (M.Baht )
100,000
-100,000
25.0%
2,050,000
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
550,000
-500,000
0.0%
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
-700,000
50,000
Current Account
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
-5.0%
Household Corporate Government
Household savings have been falling over the past 15 years. The level of
savings must be raised to maintain current account balance
INCREASES IN LONG TERM SAVING NOT ONLY PROVIDE LONG TERM
FUNDS FOR MEGA-PROJECTS, IT WILL ALSO PROVIDE NEW FUNDS FOR
EQUITY AND BOND MARKETS
•
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOREIGN NET BUY AND CHANGE IN STOCK PRICE INDEX (2003-05)
120.0% Thailand-03
Change in Stock Price Index %
100.0%
80.0%
India-03
60.0%
Indonesia-04
40.0%
Korea-05
Indonesia-05
20.0%
Thailand-05
Taiwan-05
0.0%
-2.0%
3.0%
Thailand-04
-20.0%
8.0%
13.0%
Foreign Net Buy/Market Capitalisation %
18.0%
23.0%
Recent examples:
401 k-driven bull
market in America
during the 1990s,
the dramatic bull
market in
Australia as a
result of the
compulsory super
annuation system
introduced in 1992,
and Korea’s
installment fund
since 2004.
ขอขอบพระคุณ
www.kasikornasset.com
โทร. 0-2276-2233
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