Transcript Title – Times New Roman 36pt Title 2 – Times New Roman 36pt

Results of CFO Survey in Central Europe
The only way is up
Gavin Hill
Partner, Central Europe
Deloitte Q1 2013 CE CFO Survey
4th
CE CFO survey
8+ Industries
Financial services, TMT, Transport,
Real Estate, Pharmaceutical, Manufacturing,
Energy, Consumer Business and other industries participated
14
geographies
668 CFOs responded
2
Central European CFO Survey
Kosovo
© 2013 Deloitte Central Europe
Key findings from the Q1 2013 CE CFO survey
Cut, minimise, grow
•
•
•
CFOs feel the same way or somewhat more optimistic regarding financial prospect for their
companies than they did 6 months ago.
This mild decrease of pessimism is consistent with the results of the recent Deloitte survey of
Private Equity executives.
There is a significant north/south split in the sentiment of CFOs (south being more negative
and north positive in most questions).
• Are less cautious than 6 months ago
• Focus on revenue growth on current & new markets,
followed by cost cutting and improvement of liquidity
• Are quite risk averse
CFOs in Central
Europe
• Forecast that financing costs will increase
• Remain cautious about gearing
• Do not expect talent shortage in finance
3
Central European CFO Survey
© 2013 Deloitte Central Europe
CFO survey results CE x UK
Greater risk averseness and cautiousness in Central Europe
Compared to the results of CFO Survey in the United Kingdom, Central European CFOs
are more risk averse and are not expecting significant improvements, unlike their UK based
counterparts.
Around 40% of the UK
CFOs claim that now is a
good time to be taking risk
onto their balance sheets.
Around 20% of CFOs in UK
evaluate external economic
uncertainty as normal
Risk
Uncertainty
The availability of Credit
is highest in 5 years in UK
Credit
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Central European CFO Survey
Only around 20% of CE
CFOs claim that now is a
good time to be taking risk
Even though majority of CFOs
claim that external economic
uncertainty levels are above
normal or high, 21% of CFOs
see the conditions as normal
On average, credit is normally
available for majority of CFOs in
CE, the exception is southern
part of the region
© 2013 Deloitte Central Europe
Detailed Results
Financial prospects for companies
Mild return of optimism
Majority of CFOs feel the same way about the financial prospects for their companies,
as they did 6 months ago. However significant part of CFOs also feels somewhat
optimistic. Especially CFOs in Baltic countries and Serbia.
Financial prospects for companies, compared to 6 months ago
100%
7%
2%
6%
3%
5%
7%
2%
16%
90%
24%
27%
80%
27%
26%
50%
26%
70%
40%
34%
43%
33%
38%
52%
42%
60%
32%
Very Optimistic
50%
43%
Somewhat Optimistic
36%
Unchanged
55%
40%
35%
40%
43%
45%
51%
32%
30%
58%
39%
Less Optimistic
39%
39%
20%
30%
10%
30%
21%
0%
Slovenia Slovakia Poland
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Central European CFO Survey
18%
17%
16%
15%
15%
12%
10%
10%
8%
6%
Croatia Bulgaria Serbia Romania Hungary Albania Estonia Lithuania Czech
Latvia
Republic
© 2013 Deloitte Central Europe
GDP growth predictions
Expectation of stagnation
2
Again, the north/south split is clearly visible. Majority
of CFOs expect growth between
,
-1,3
0-1,5%. The only positive exception are CFOs from
4 Baltic states and Poland, where
CFOs expect moderate growth for the year ahead.
CFOs GDP growth expectations for 2013
100%
2%
7%
2%
5%
18%
90%
18%
30%
20%
7%
16%
12%
33%
80%
58%
70%
12%
52%
58%
66%
60%
84%
50%
66%
40%
72%
85%
70%
Growth (>3%)
76%
77%
Moderate Growth (1,5-3%)
Stagnation (0 - 1,5%)
52%
Recession
70%
30%
43%
42%
20%
40%
28%
10%
13%
11%
10%
10%
0%
5%
3%
7%
10%
11%
Slovenia Croatia Hungary Czech Albania Slovakia Serbia Romania Poland Bulgaria Estonia Lithuania Latvia
Republic
-2,0
-0,4
-0,1
0,0
1,8
1,1
2,0
1,6
1,2
1,4
3,0
3,1
3.8
Real GDP growth,
forecast 2013 (%)
Source: Eurostat & IMF
7
Central European CFO Survey
© 2013 Deloitte Central Europe
Availability of credit
Credit is easier to obtain in the north of the region
Credit is normally available in majority of the countries. Once again the north/south
split is clearly visible.
Rating of overall availability of new credit for companies
100%
6%
8%
13%
8%
5%
11%
13%
90%
14%
10%
28%
80%
40%
43%
41%
59%
70%
53%
63%
60%
60%
75%
70%
70%
77%
Easily available
50%
Normally available
87%
40%
30%
60%
57%
54%
41%
20%
40%
30%
10%
29%
21%
17%
16%
13%
5%
0%
Slovenia Romania Hungary Albania
8
Difficult to obtain
67%
Central European CFO Survey
Serbia
Croatia
Latvia
Bulgaria Slovakia Lithuania Poland
Czech Estonia
Republic
© 2013 Deloitte Central Europe
Willingness to take risk
Staying on the safe side
The entire region shares the opinion that now is still not a good time to take risk.
Slovenia remains most risk averse from the region with all CFOs surveyed
feeling, that now is not a good time to take more risk onto companies’ balance
sheets.
Is now a good time to be taking greater risk onto company’s balance sheets?
100%
9%
10%
18%
90%
18%
20%
20%
27%
28%
29%
31%
33%
80%
36%
70%
60%
50%
100%
91%
Yes
90%
82%
40%
82%
81%
No
80%
73%
72%
71%
69%
30%
67%
64%
20%
10%
0%
Slovenia Bulgaria
9
Serbia
Central European CFO Survey
Slovakia Croatia
Albania Romania Hungary Lithuania
Latvia
Poland
Czech Estonia
Republic
© 2013 Deloitte Central Europe
Levels of uncertainty
Time to accept the new normal?
• CFOs in CE feel that the
levels of external financial
uncertainty are above normal
/ high in most of the
countries.
Rating of general level of external financial
and economic uncertainty
Normal
Above normal
• Only Slovak and Estonian
CFOs evaluate the external
conditions as normal.
High
Very high
• The question is, whether the
uncertainty will ever decrease
or it is time to accept the
current state as the new
normal.
10
Central European CFO Survey
© 2013 Deloitte Central Europe
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