Transcript External costs of power plants in Poland

External costs of
power plants
in Poland
Mariusz KUDELKO
Wojciech SUWALA
Jacek KAMINSKI
Mineral and Energy Economy Research Institute
Krakow, Poland
Polish energy sector – energy production
1. 97% of electricity produced from fossil fuels
2. Domestic sources of primary energy
dominate the total supply
3. All consumed oil and half of natural gas are
imported
4. Hard coal and lignite are the main primary
energy sources
5. Renewables still have a small share in the
energy balance
Polish energy sector – structure
1. Electricity generation sector consists of
about 15 large public power plants and
30 public CHP plants
2. District heat sector is more decentralized
and is characterized by companies owned
by local authorities
3. Coal mining sector is organized in four
hard coal companies (42 mines) and 5
lignite mines
Polish energy sector – emissions
4000
SO2
000 tons
3000
2000
1.The highest reduction of SO2 in the
energy sector is due to FGD
investments progress
1000
0
1990
1993
1995
Total
1997
1998
1999
2000
Energy sector
000 tons
1500
NOx
1000
500
2.The level of NOx emissions from the
energy sector is stabilized owing to
the technological constrains
0
1990
1993
1995
Total
1997
1998
1999
2000
Energy sector
000 tons
3000
PM
2000
1000
0
1990
1993
1995
Total
1997
1998
Energy sector
1999
2000
3.Decrease of TSP emissions is caused
by the relatively low cost of
equipment applied within the
industry
Polish energy sector – CO2 emissions
500000
000 tons
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
1988 1990 1992 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Total
1.Kyoto target = 94% of 1988 level
2.CO2 emissions stabilized in the mid nineties at
the level of 360-370 Mtons in total
3.The energy sector, which is the main consumer of
solid fuels, is responsible for 56% of CO2
emissions
Plant characteristics
Data
The type of power plant
Gross electricity production in 2002 [MW],
Electricity send out in 2002 [MW],
Energy production in 2002 brutto [GWh],
Energy production in 2002 netto [GWh],
% of total annual production of the country
Full load hours per year [h]
SO2 Emissions [t]
NOx Emissions [t]
TSP Emissions [t]
SO2 Emissions [mg/Nm3]
NOx Emissions [mg/Nm3]
TSP Emissions [mg/Nm3]
Stack height [m],
Anemometer hieght [m]
Stack diameter [m],
Flue gas volume [Nm3/h],
Flue gas temperature [K]
Elevation at site [mnpm].
Geograpfical longtitude [degree]
Geograpfical latitude [degree]
Location
Kozienice Belchatow
coal
lignite
2820
4410
2605
4084
9013
27362
8327
25422
6.0
18.5
3196
6224
44579
174195
16128
37203
2133
2381
1884
1777
557
380
84
24
200
300
200
300
13.8
20.8
7404182 15750000
396
386
107
196
21o29'
19o22'
51o40'
51o22'
rural
rural
Lagisza
coal
840
656
3087
2810
2.0
4284
14954
6644
690
1245
553
60
180
180
9.2
2800000
420
320
19o08'
50o19'
urban
Ostroleka Dolna Odra
coal
coal
600
1600
559
1455
1939
4974
1805
4524
1.3
3.3
3232
3109
15486
24497
4264
10578
994
613
2130
1239
586
535
137
31
120
200
120
200
6.2
13.1
2250000
6360000
373
393
100
5
21o35'
14o28'
53o05'
53o12'
urban
rural
Siekierki
coal
1293
1179
4386
3999
2.9
3392
19333
5305
1574
1425
391
116
200
200
11.6
4000000
426.7
81
21o02'
52o12'
urban
Patnow
lignite
1200
1111
6459
5982
4.3
5383
90878
10786
2371
3211
381
84
150
150
13.9
5258000
453
93
18o16'
52o13'
rural
Adamow
lignite
600
549
3618
3311
2.4
6031
14790
6806
1396
916
422
86
150
150
9.9
2676600
453
111
18o05'
52o16'
rural
Połaniec
coal
1600
1467
6845
6278
4.6
4278
37156
11727
1758
1551
489
73
250
250
11.7
5598242
393
161
21o17'
50o26'
rural
Location of selected power plants
Russia
Gdansk
Belarus
PP Dolna Odra
CHP Ostroleka
Germany
Lignite PP Patnow
Warszawa
Poznan
CHP Siekierki
Lodz
Lignite PP Adamow
Lignite PP Belchatow
Ukraine
PP Kozienice
PP Lagisza
Katowice
Total number:
hard coal 65
lignite
5
PP Polaniec
Czech
Republic
Slovakia
Energy production, 2002, GWh
Russia
Gdansk
4524
Belarus
PP Dolna Odra
1805
Germany
CHP Ostroleka
Lignite PP Patnow
Warszawa
Poznan 5982
3311
Lodz
Lignite PP Adamow
CHP Siekierki
3999
Lignite PP Belchatow
25422
Ukraine
8327
PP Kozienice
2810
PP Lagisza
6278
Katowice
Total energy
production, TWh:
hard coal 83
lignite
50
PP Polaniec
Czech
Republic
Slovakia
SO2 emissions, 2002, mg/Nm3
Russia
Gdansk
1239
Belarus
PP Dolna Odra
2130
Germany
CHP Ostroleka
Lignite PP Patnow
Warszawa
Poznan 3211
Lodz
916
1425
CHP Siekierki
Lignite PP Adamow
1777 Lignite PP Belchatow
Ukraine
1884
1245
PP Lagisza
Katowice
Total emissions, 000 t:
SO2
780
NOX
242
PM10
58
PP Kozienice
1551
PP Polaniec
Czech
Republic
Slovakia
Stack height, m
Russia
Gdansk
200
Belarus
PP Dolna Odra
120
CHP Ostroleka
150
Germany
Lignite PP Patnow
Poznan
150
300
Warszawa
200
CHP Siekierki
Lodz
Lignite PP Adamow
Lignite PP Belchatow
200
180
Ukraine
PP Kozienice
PP Lagisza
250
Katowice
PP Polaniec
Typical stack height, m:
Czech
hard coal 120
Republic
lignite
160
Slovakia
Results (EcoSense 2.0)
External costs of Polish power plants, cents Euro/kWh
Kozienice
human
low
mid high
1.80 2.07 2.34
crops
low
mid high
0.00 0.03 0.00
material
low
mid high
0.05 0.09 0.16
forest
low
mid high
0
0
0
ecosystems
low
mid high
0
0
0
Total
low
mid high
1.86 2.20 2.50
Belchatow
human
low
mid high
2.48 2.87 3.26
crops
low
mid high
0.00 0.06 0.00
material
low
mid high
0.09 0.15 0.26
forest
low
mid high
0
0
0
ecosystems
low
mid high
0
0
0
Total
low
mid high
2.57 3.08 3.52
Lagisza
human
low
mid high
2.61 2.99 3.37
crops
low
mid high
0.00 0.04 0.00
material
low
mid high
0.10 0.16 0.29
forest
low
mid high
0
0
0
ecosystems
low
mid high
0
0
0
Total
low
mid high
2.70 3.20 3.66
Ostroleka
human
low
mid high
2.51 2.87 3.23
crops
low
mid high
0.00 0.02 0.00
material
low
mid high
0.07 0.12 0.20
forest
low
mid high
0
0
0
ecosystems
low
mid high
0
0
0
Total
low
mid high
2.58 3.01 3.43
Dolna Odra
human
low
mid high
2.23 2.56 2.89
crops
low
mid high
0.00 0.03 0.00
material
low
mid high
0.06 0.09 0.14
forest
low
mid high
0
0
0
ecosystems
low
mid high
0
0
0
Total
low
mid high
2.29 2.68 3.04
Siekierki
human
low
mid high
1.56 1.78 2.01
crops
low
mid high
0.00 0.02 0.00
material
low
mid high
0.05 0.08 0.14
forest
low
mid high
0
0
0
ecosystems
low
mid high
0
0
0
Total
low
mid high
1.60 1.89 2.14
Patnow
human
low
mid high
4.97 5.76 6.55
crops
low
mid high
0.00 0.13 0.00
material
low
mid high
0.18 0.30 0.52
forest
low
mid high
0
0
0
ecosystems
low
mid high
0
0
0
Total
low
mid high
5.14 6.19 7.07
Adamow
human
low
mid high
2.03 2.32 2.60
crops
low
mid high
0.00 0.03 0.00
material
low
mid high
0.06 0.10 0.17
forest
low
mid high
0
0
0
ecosystems
low
mid high
0
0
0
Total
low
mid high
2.09 2.45 2.77
Połaniec
human
low
mid high
2.24 2.56 2.89
crops
low
mid high
0.00 0.03 0.00
material
low
mid high
0.07 0.11 0.20
forest
low
mid high
0
0
0
ecosystems
low
mid high
0
0
0
Total
low
mid high
2.30 2.71 3.09
low
64
mid high
75
86
low
308
mid high
370
423
low
69
mid high
81
92
low
145
mid high
170
194
low
50
8
6
mid high
60
69
9
10
6
7
low
299
-4
13
mid high
361
413
-5
-5
14
15
low
48
14
8
mid high
58
67
15
16
8
9
low
116
20
8
mid high
140
161
21
23
9
10
2595
1528
3739
3115
1660
4063
3292
-416
5485
3973
-452
5960
3241
1998
5562
3908
2171
6043
3135
1671
4790
3757
1815
5204
Total damage estimates of the power generation stage in mln Euro/year
low
155
mid high
183
208
low
652
mid high
784
896
low
76
mid high
90
103
low
47
mid high
54
62
low
103
mid high
121
137
Damage structure estimates of the power generation stage in mln Euro/year
low
128
17
9
mid high
154
177
19
21
10
11
low
622
17
14
mid high
751
860
18
19
15
16
low
62
10
5
mid high
74
86
10
11
5
6
low
36
7
3
mid high
42
49
8
9
4
4
low
73
28
3
mid high
88
101
30
33
3
4
Damage estimates of the power generation stage in Euro/t poluttant emitted
low
mid
high
low
mid
high
low
mid
high
2874
1084
4253
3453
1178
4621
3970
1272
4989
3569
446
5791
4311
485
6291
4937
524
6793
4118
1435
6981
4966
1559
7585
5751
1683
8190
2301
1745
3472
2743
1895
3772
3168
2046
4073
2962
2633
4875
3587
2861
5297
4129
3089
5719
3584
1793
4387
4544
-488
6435
4499
2344
6525
4332
1960
5619
Results (EcoSense 2.0)
Euro cents/kWh (mid values)
7
average lignite power plant (mid value) = 3,56
6
5
average hard coal power plant (mid value) = 2,48
4
ecosystems
forest
material
3
2
crops
human
1
0
Kozienice
Belchatow
Lagisza
Ostroleka Dolna Odra
Siekierki
Patnow
Adamow
Połaniec
Results (EcoSense 2.0)
8000
Euro/Mg polutant emitted
(mid values)
7000
average NOx (mid value) = 1206
average SO2 (mid value) = 3942
average PM10 (mid value) = 5685
6000
5000
4000
SO2
NOx
PM10
3000
2000
1000
0
-1000
Kozienice
Belchatow
Lagisza
Ostroleka
Dolna Odra
Siekierki
Patnow
Adamow
Połaniec
Results (EcoSense 2.0)
Total external costs of power plants
2500
Połaniec
Siekierki
mln Euro/year
2000
Dolna Odra
Ostroleka
1500
Lagisza
Kozienice
1000
Adamow
Patnow
Belchatow
500
0
low
mid
high
Results, external costs, Euro cents/kWh
6,19
3,58
9,43
4,68
Russia
2,68
3,00
Gdansk
3,41
3,48
PP Dolna Odra
2,44
1.88
3,08
Germany
Lignite PP Patnow
Poznan
Belarus
4,38
CHP Ostroleka
Warszawa
CHP Siekierki
Lodz
4,45 2,19 2,50
Lignite PP Adamow
Lignite PP Belchatow
3,19
Ukraine
2,70
4,52
PP Kozienice
PP Lagisza
Katowice
PP Polaniec
v. 2.0
v. 4.0
Czech
Republic
Slovakia
Results
10
Euro cents/kWh (mid values)
9
8
7
6
v. 2.0
5
v. 4.0
4
3
2
1
0
Kozienice
Belchatow
Lagisza
Ostroleka
Dolna Odra
Siekierki
Patnow
Adamow
Połaniec
Results
SO2
8000
Euro/Mg polutant emitted
(mid values)
7000
6000
5000
v. 2.0
4000
v. 4.0
3000
2000
1000
0
Kozienice Belchatow
Lagisza
Ostroleka Dolna Odra
Siekierki
Patnow
Adamow
Połaniec
Results
NOx
Euro/Mg polutant emitted
(mid values)
3000
2500
2000
1500
v. 2.0
v. 4.0
1000
500
0
-500
Kozienice
Belchatow
Lagisza
Ostroleka Dolna Odra
Siekierki
Patnow
Adamow
Połaniec
Results
PM10
Euro/Mg polutant emitted
(mid values)
12000
10000
8000
v. 2.0
6000
v. 4.0
4000
2000
0
Kozienice
Belchatow
Lagisza
Ostroleka Dolna Odra
Siekierki
Patnow
Adamow
Połaniec
Results
Energy production in Poland, GWh
hard coal
lignite
Total
83069
50557
133626
All countries
v. 2.0
Average external costs, cents Euro/kWh
hard coal
lignite
Total external cost, mln Euro
hard coal
lignite
Total
Average external costs, Euro/t
SO2
NOx
PM10
Poland
v. 4.0
v. 4.0
low
mid
high
mid
mid
2.12
2.96
2.50
3.56
2.85
4.06
3.95
5.17
1.59
2.43
low
mid
high
mid
mid
1764
1499
3263
2077
1799
3876
2364
2054
4418
3278
2614
5892
1319
1227
2546
low
mid
high
mid
3271
1110
5233
3942
1206
5685
4527
1302
6138
6045
1418
7469
National, as% of total costs
Russia
45%
Belarus
PP Dolna Odra
34%
50%
Germany
CHP Ostroleka
Lignite PP Patnow
Poznan
48%
49%
Lignite PP Adamow
45%
CHP Siekierki
Lignite PP Belchatow
39%
47%
PP Kozienice
Ukraine
PP Lagisza
35%
Czech
Republic
Slovakia
PP Polaniec
Total external costs, mln Euro:
All countries
5892
Poland
2546 (43%)
The model of power sector development
Key issues:
1. A mid-term planning of development of the
Polish energy system based on the criterion
of effective allocation of resources
2. External costs of emissions from energy
technologies internalised
Criteria of resources allocation
1. Cost-effective allocation, which means a
cost minimization for objective function to
achieve a specific environmental objective –
the desired emissions level
2. Maximization of social welfare defined as a
sum of producers’ and consumers’ surplus
minus external costs
Main assumptions - 1
1. Supply side:
public power plants, public CHP plants, industry CHP
plants and municipal heat plants aggregated as energy
generation technologies divided into three groups:
existing, modernized and new plants
2. Demand side:
industry and construction, transport, agriculture, trade
and services, individual consumers and export
Main assumptions - 2
3. Demand curves estimated by price and income
elasticity coefficients, both for electricity and heat
markets
4. Damages related to energy technologies and derived
from the ExternE estimations
5. Implementation – GAMS package, solvers – CPLEX and
CONOPT
General structure of the model
Supplies
Consumption
Transformation
hard
hard coal
coal
lignite
lignite
Public
Publicpower
power
plants
plants
natural
natural gas
gas
Public
PublicCHP
CHP
plants
plants
oil
oil
Industry
IndustryCHP
CHP
plants
plants
renewables
renewables
nuclear
nuclear energy
energy
Municipal
Municipalheat
heat
plants,
plants,industry
industry
heat
heatplants
plants
Domestic + Import
Technologies
electricity
Industry
Industry
heat
Transport
Transport
Existingtechnologies
technologies
Existing
Modernised
technologies
Modernised technologies
New
technologies
New technologies
Primary energy
supplies
Demand
electricity
heat
Agriculture
Agriculture
electricity
Trade
Tradeand
and
services
services
heat
heat
Households
Households
Export
Export
Domestic + Import
Private costs
Type of fuel.
Fuel costs
Social welfare
Fixed and
variable costs
of technol.
prod.
Investment
costs of
technol. prod.
Investment
costs of
abatement
technol.
Fixed and
variable costs
of abatement
technol.
Balance of
Import and
export costs
Consumers and
producers
surplus
External costs
Source of
supply
Domestic
Technology
efficiency
Import
Capacity of
supply
Balance of fuels
supplies
Modernization
of technologies
Production
investments
Fuel consump.
rate
Existing
technologies
Energy balance of
production
Fuels
supplies
Balance of production
investments
Capacity
Demand
sectors
Electricity/heat
ratio
Energy
production
Transport
losses
Load periods
Demands ratio in
load periods
Balance of production
and demand for final
energy
Balance of production
capacity
Consumers
demand
Import
Energy price
Export
Demand
functions
New
technologies
Availability factor
Abatement
technologies
Environ.
investments
Balance of environ.
investments
Capacity
Balance of abatement
capacity
Emissions
reduction
Balance of emissions
reduction
Legend:
Balances
Variables
Parameters
Costs
component
Efficiency of
abatement
technologies
Technology
efficiency
Emissions
factor
Price
elasticity
Balance of emissions
Emissions
Unit external
costs
Income
elasticity
Scenarios
Variant 1
Variant 2
scenario 1
scenario 2
scenario 3
Type of the model
linear
non-linear
non-linear
non-linear
Objective function
minimization of
cost of energy
production
maximization of
consumers’ and
producers’
surpluses
maximization of
consumers’ and
producers’
surpluses less
external costs
consumers’ and
producers’
surpluses less
external costs
determined
calculated
calculated
calculated
limited
calculated
calculated
calculated
not considered
not considered
partly considered
(only SO2, NOX,
and TSP)
fully considered
(SO2, NOX, CO2
and TSP)
Demand
Emissions
External costs
Results, variant 1
1400
Production [PJ]
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
Hard coal
Lignite
Renewables
Other
Production, PJ:
Electricity
Heat
Total
Unit cost of electricity production,
zl/MWh
Unit cost of heat production, zl/GJ
Technological investments, MW
Abatement investments, MW
2010
2015
2020
Natural gas
2002
2003
2004
2005
2010
2015
2020
513
572
1085
518
567
1085
518
559
1077
525
554
1079
540
552
1092
656
551
1207
762
551
1313
112,7
20,6
0
0
113,5
21,2
3600
0
114,7
21,7
3420
0
116,5
22,3
4185
12145
120,8
25,3
20806
1790
135,6
31,8
37555
26905
146,4
34,3
23084
6344
Results, variant 2, scenario 3
1400
Production [PJ]
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2002
2003
2004
Hard coal
Lignite
Renewables
Other
Production, PJ:
Electricity
Heat
Total
Price of electricity production, zl/MWh
Price of heat production, zl/GJ
Technological investments, MW
Abatement investments, MW
2005
2010
2015
2020
Natural gas
2002
2003
2004
2005
2010
2015
2020
448
324
772
183,6
56,1
0
108534
457
337
794
186,2
55,6
3091
3464
462
347
809
190,8
55,2
3457
3441
461
360
821
202,7
54,7
5234
2899
512
398
910
205,0
55,5
22715
13550
558
442
1000
211,6
55,3
18237
21431
605
480
1085
215,9
55,9
17151
28610
Results, private and social welfare
bln zl
Variants
Variant 2
scenario 1 scenario 2 scenario 3
Variant 1
Consumers’ surplus
Producers’ surplus
Private costs
External costs, including:
SO2
NOX
CO2
TSP
Private welfare
Social welfare
358
265
97
33
63
72
-
547
109
311
285
115
33
64
73
656
371
478
121
318
139
44
15
54
26
599
460
442
134
325
114
37
12
48
17
576
462
%
Consumers’ surplus
Producers’ surplus
Private costs
External costs, including:
SO2
NOX
CO2
TSP
Private welfa
re
Social welfare
-
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-13
11
2
-51
-62
-55
-16
-64
-9
24
-19
23
5
-60
-68
-64
-25
-77
-12
25
Conclusions - 1
1. The structure of energy production in the cost-effective allocation
scenario is dominated by the low-cost energy conversion
technologies that are generally based on solid fuels – hard coal
and lignite
2. In the partial equilibrium model with external costs internalised
the dominant position of solid fuels decreases in favour of gas
and renewables
Conclusions - 2
3. Projected long-term increase of energy prices amounts to about
100% comparing with their present level. Decrease of energy
production is predicted on 20-30% of the total
4. Existing abatement technologies are economically efficient
strategies to lower emissions
5. From a social point of view a full internalisation of external costs
by the energy price implies that this scenario is the most
advantageous