Transcript PRESENTATION TITLE

Reefer market overview
Trans-Pacific Maritime Conference
Philip Damas
Director, Drewry Supply Chain Advisors
[email protected]
Long Beach, March 5th, 2013
Drewry | Index Linked Container Contracts
Agenda
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Resilient demand despite economic problems
Import patterns have changed in the past decade
Decline in specialised reefer fleet
Expansion of container reefer capacity
Increase in containerised market share
The $1,500/reefer 40ft GRI of January 2013
Fewer options for shippers
Conclusions and Q&A
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1. Resilient demand despite economic problems
Growth in seaborne reefer volumes vs global GDP
Worldwide seaborne trade of
perishable reefer cargoes increased
by 4% in 2011 (numbers for 2012 not
available, yet):
– Average historical of about 3%
– Some commodity sectors growing
faster
– Not just a small market
Drewry forecasts continued growth
of 4.5% a year in next few years:
– Will there be sufficient capacity?
Source: Drewry’s Reefer Shipping Market Review & Forecast 2012/2013
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2. Import patterns have changed in the past decade
Distribution of global trade in perishables by import region
in 2001
Distribution of global trade in perishables by import region
in 2011
Source: Drewry’s Reefer Shipping Market Review & Forecast 2012/2013
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3. Decline in specialised reefer fleet
Specialised reefer vessels being
scrapped:
– 39 scrapped in 2011
– 74 scrapped in 2012
Age profile of specialised reefer fleet for 100,000+ cft
(no of vessels)
Specialised reefer vessels’ age
profile:
– Ships are getting old
– New ships delivered: zero!
Source: Drewry’s Reefer Shipping Market Review & Forecast 2012/2013
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3. Decline in specialised reefer fleet (continued)
The specialised reefer fleet (100,000+ cft) during 2001-2011
10 years of decline for the
specialised reefer fleet
… progressively shrinking fleet
Source: Drewry’s Reefer Shipping Market Review & Forecast 2012/2013
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4. Expansion of container reefer capacity
Global reefer container capacity is increasing:
– Up 8% in 2011
– Estimated increase of 6% in 2012
Source: Drewry’s Reefer Shipping Market Review & Forecast 2012/2013
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5. Increase in containerised market share
Containers are winning the
battle
Container reefer fleet:
Up to 91% of world reefer
capacity and growing
Specialised reefer fleet:
Down to 9% of world reefer
capacity – supply reduced
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6. The $1,500/reefer 40ft GRI of January 2013
“Maersk Line Chief Executive Officer
Soren Skou said Tuesday at a
refrigerated logistics conference in
Antwerp that his company plans to
hike reefer rates by roughly 30% on a
global basis from Jan 1, 2013.”
Drewry benchmarking of actual
increase in reefer freight rates:
– Varied considerably between
routes, varied between carriers
– Up to 33% increase between
November 2011 and February 2013
Drewry reefer container freight rate benchmarks (Nov 2012=100)
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7. Fewer options for shippers
Specialised reefer ships are
full
Box carriers less willing/able
to invest
Capacity bottleneck, repeat
of January 2013 GRI?
but…
Major reefer shippers have
huge negotiating power over
shipping lines
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8. Conclusions
 Worldwide seaborne trade of perishable reefer cargoes is a
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growing market
Import patterns have changed in the past decade
Very fast decline in the specialised reefer fleet
Expansion of the reefer containership fleet and box fleet
Containers now dominate reefer shipping
Impact of $1,500/FEU GRI
What is to stop it happening again in
future years?
© Drewry 2012
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Thank you. Any questions?
Drewry was founded in 1970 as a provider of
independent information and advice to the global
maritime industry. Since then we have worked
with over 4,000 clients in more than 100 countries.
Philip Damas [email protected]
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