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Open Source Intelligence for the 21

Century

Electric Shock

in Four Parts May 2008 [email protected]

“Jim Woolsey and Bill Clinton’s relationships exposes the problems of analysis and information in a global world where research, intelligence and authority arguably have new owners”.

“Woolsey was Old Testament and Clinton was Post Modern” Al Gore

Theory and different types of analysis is one of the major growth areas in the last few decades.

We are now going to add to that trend.

Part One

Unreliable Evidence

Information Agenda

• I want to discuss what it means to do analysis and intelligence in a world where few respect information’s authority. • Where the client often believes that they have as much to contribute as the specialist. • Where electronic distribution technology has overwhelmed most government organisation’s ability.

• And where a clear understanding of delivering information/intelligence for an individual user and their particular needs is often missing.

• Let us begin with a brief history and some important information events…..

Open Source Information Transition 1455 to 2008

1994 to 2008 1898 to 1994 1455 to 1898

Printer/ Publisher (Reformation)

Multimedia Radio/Cinema TV/Databases (Mass one way Communications)

Intranets Online/Web E-open source intelligence

Information/intelligence is now about linking actionable knowledge for immediate use of a particular user...

Part Two

Suicide Terror and Hidden Agenda

Issues surrounding 9/11

• Open sources were seen as secondary.

• Most intelligence clients subscribed to open sources in paper and electronically.

• Many had marked relevant articles for reading. • Problems of overload, classified traffic and lack of strategic focus on asymmetric threat.

• Fundamentally the terrorists were seen as a minor not major threat at that time.

What Else Did We know?

100s of Al-Qaeda Articles

50 45 40 35 USS Cole - Yemen US embassy bombings - Nairobi / Dar es Salaam Threats against US assets 30 25 20 15 10 Articles in the hundreds Threats against US assets 5 0 Ja n-9 5 Ap r-9 5 Ju l-9 5 O ct -9 5 Ja n-9 6 Ap r-9 6 Ju l-9 6 O ct -9 6 Ja n-9 7 Ap r-9 7 Ju l-9 7 O ct -9 7 Ja n-9 8 Ap r-9 8 Ju l-9 8 O ct -9 8 Ja n-9 9 Ap r-9 9 Ju l-9 9 O ct -9 9 Ja n-0 0 Ap r-0 0 Ju l-0 0 O ct -0 0 Ja n-0 1 Ap r-0 1 Ju l-0 1

Part Three

Different Methodologies

Objective

Deliver information that is conditioned and designed to support the intelligence collection and analysis process: • Quicker and easier to find • More usable / ‘ready for analysis’ • Analysis and report building tools

Customer Problem

• Not finding the precise data because of info overload. The cost, the time and resources.

• Not knowing what is and isn’t validated.

• Problem of not knowing what you know. • 75% of operational information requests are for information that is already known.

• Problem of not knowing what you don’t know and missing critical information.

Intelligent Search & Discovery

Google experience

Information Sources

Search Knowledge-enabled experience

Results List Xxxxxxxxx Xxxxxxxxx Xxxxxxxxx Xxxxxxxxx Xxxxxxxxx Xxxxxxxxx Xxxxxxxxx

•1,000s of results

that may or may not be relevant to users actual needs

•Important info is

easily missed or not even found Information Sources

Domain Knowledge Metadata Layer

Guided search/nav Profiling & alerting Analytical tools Info discovery Data visualisation Report building

Highly Focused Results That meet User Needs

Content/Technology Landscape

Content

Chat Rooms Blogs Real time Online News Online Journals Research Reports Reference Databases Unstructured Massive volume Some structure Moderate volume After the event Emerging technology Automated processes Established technology Manually intensive Data Visualisation

Technology

Entity Extraction Alerts / Profiling Search / Retrieval Content Management

Evolution of Taxonomy Technologies Search and Retrieval Software ( “and”, “or” and “not” ) Boolean Logic ( search results return too many possible documents ) Meta-data ( “data” about “data” : Relevancy and consistency were questionable) Link Ranking ( importance determined by popularity and use ) Taxonomy

Future Information Architecture

Tailored Information Services Reusable Information Objects

Hard Copy Offline Data Services Online Applications • Alerting • Search/browse • Guided nav • Visualisation • Report building

Domain Knowledge / Exploitation

Content Management • Taxonomies • Entities/relships • Key facts/data • XML • Databases Reference News Images • Editorial ops

Linking of data to produce immediate trend analysis

Taxonomies, Data Conditioning, Visualisation and Deeper Analysis.

Intelligence Centres Providing knowledge workers with work tools to quickly access highly focused information from multiple sources ANALYST WORK TOOLS Searching Alerting Taxonomies Visualisation Exporting Reporting Other Analytical Tools CONTENT SOURCES News Analysis Reference Images world news Web Resources Web Monitoring Company Press Releases Contextual Advertising Other sources

Data Visualisation

Data Visualisation

Creating Open Source Intelligence

• The Intelligence process uses Rationalism : collect the data, make an assessment, write the analysis and deliver/publish the intelligence.

• This is only one method of producing intelligence and we should continue to use a rationalistic approach.

• Also another process that we are now exploring is non-linear. It is more of a dialogue between specialists and generalists and is more interactive.

• This has ramification: everything from office layout, meetings to editorial systems/practice. And the connectivity of content and improved service.

Part Four

Post Modern Mirrors Variable Future - New Past

Information and Intelligence Methodologies

•Linear Intelligence

•Scenario Planning.

•Mosaic Method.

• These are not meant as final answers.

Traditional Linear Intelligence

• Task, collect the facts, rank and validate facts , make assessment, Independent review , complete the analysis and present the results.

• This process is very robust as a method .

• However it is not enough as a process in uncertain threat environments.

Alneda – the call

• Site hosted in Malaysia.

• Appeared before 911.

• Al Qaeda named by US Intelligence .

• Shut down in 2002 by Al Qaeda as they opened new sites with their new name.

Things known about Al Qaeda

• Once they have targeted a person or place they continue until they believe the task to be completed.

• They use Western technology but despise its creators.

• They seriously believe women are lower in the social and intellectual order.

• Their revolution had failed in every country they tried.

• Use Toyota vehicles.

• They have been given prominence by the West. • They have been branded by America.

Scenario Planning – Creative Options •These methods suggest thinking out of the box.

• They mean teams of both specialists and generalists working rather than the focus of a few specialist individuals . • These methods are very useful for bringing ideas to the surface • They are not a replacement for Linear techniques but should work as a complementary methodology. • We are using technology and scenario techniques to clarify our thought processes.

Twelve Categories of Information

• Factual • Contextual • Analytical • Opinion • Covert • Operational • Publicity • Historical • Inaccurate • Propaganda • Spin • Bias Unintended Consequences – future training and targeting – historical parallels and practices

A Scenario Analysis Model

Bias, Spin, Propaganda History Opinion Analysis B

focus Validation

Analysis

Scenario Finally lets look at a Mosaic Method

Mosaic Method

• Created by Information thinkers like Marshall McLuhan and writers like Robert D. Kaplan. • Building the world you wish to investigate from its history, imagery, graffiti, popular culture, humour through to its boundaries, prejudices, cultural conventions, social economics and local politics. • Useful as a means towards new perspectives on a problem but a method that works along side others.

Mosaic

• Research methods that link different cultural understandings such that usable new knowledge is created.

• Using technology to condition information’s context so the links are relevant and actionable.

• Bringing clients, researchers and generalists together in an equal and collaborative focus.

The Global Stress Point Matrix (GSPM)

15 Lebanon – Hezbollah

Mosaic Method

Open Sources

Al Qaeda

• Copies other terrorist organisations.

• Uses technology it despises.

• Encourages suicide attacks and pays martyrs’ families for sacrifices.

• 9/11 originally included an attack on LAX Los Angeles airport.

• Trained pilots one of whom said he did not need training in landing.

• Had studied Kamikaze pilot techniques.

Hezbollah

• Has carried out more suicide attacks than Al Qaeda.

• Designated as a terrorist group by some Western governments and not by others. The IRA was similarly designated by some and not others.

• Has had significant disagreements with al Qaeda.

• What is considered acceptable by one culture is not allowed in another.

• Sophisticated Web sites continue to move location to stop interference and censorship.

• They consider they won the recent 2006 conflict with Israel.

Summary

• In a global electronic environment pattern recognition has become as important as linear analysis.

• As analysis and consultants we have to be aware of the new client requirements for actionable Intelligence that will measurably save them people, time and money.

• We must understand where our cultural bias lies and what effect this has on our final analysis.

• We have to take account of the cultural shock that the Web is causing and the effect it has on understanding, authority and power.

• Intelligence must be designed for the action and the understanding of the final user.

Final Conclusion

• • Digital Publishing is altering the cultural landscape.

Re-writing the past and the future will be common place.

• Expect massive technology and social shifts - and a backlash as government e-surveillance increases.

• Continually re-educate yourself to ensure that someone in another country who you will never meet, cannot take your job.

Intelligence for the 21 st Century