Transcript caribgrowth.competecaribbean.org

CARIBBEAN GROWTH FORUM
St. Kitts and Nevis Chapter
FIRST ACCOUNTABILITY WORKSHOP
Marriott Hotel  June 11, 2014
The Caribbean: The Need to
Adapt to Restore Growth and
Competitiveness
Wayne Mitchell
International Monetary Fund
Caribbean Growth Forum
Phase 2 – Accountability Workshop
St. Kitts and Nevis Chapter
Marriott Hotel
June 11, 2014
The recovery is picking up pace, but global
risks remain…
2011
2012
2013
Estimate
2014
2015
Projections
World
3.9
3.2
3.0
3.6
3.9
USA
1.8
2.8
1.9
2.8
3.0
Canada
2.5
1.7
2.0
2.3
2.4
UK
1.1
0.3
1.8
2.9
2.5
Euro Area
1.6
-0.7
-0.5
1.2
1.5
Latin America and the Caribbean
4.6
3.1
2.7
2.5
3.0
0.3
0.1
0.7
1.4
1.9
-0.1
0.2
0.7
1.9
2.4
2.6
3.7
3.2
3.2
3.2
Caribbean
Tourism-dependent
ECCU
Commodity Exporters
Sources: World Economic Outlook (April 2014) and ECCB
3
St. Kitts and Nevis will recover lost ground by 2015
but not the rest of the region…
104
102
100
98
96
94
92
90
88
86
2008
2009
2010
ECCU
2011
2012
St.Kitts and Nevis
Source: ECCB and IMF Staff estimates
2013
flat
2014
2015
….. but that’s no cause for complacency. Growth
lags that of peer countries.
Source: IMF staff
5
6
Conclusion
• Macroeconomic stabilization is necessary
• Allocation - are we doing the right things?
– promote competitiveness and private sector
development
• Efficiency – are we doing things right?
– Success depends on technical efficiency,
communication, transparency, and discipline.
• The CGF is an important initiative that can
facilitate the above
7
Thanks
CARIBBEAN GROWTH FORUM
St. Kitts and Nevis Chapter
FIRST ACCOUNTABILITY WORKSHOP
Marriott Hotel  June 11, 2014
OVERVIEW OF CGF PROJECT
 Caribbean Growth Forum (CGF):
 Regional initiative supported by Compete Caribbean,
IDB, World Bank, CDB, DFID and DFATD
 Aimed at:
 Identifying priority actions that contribute to private
sector-led growth and job creation in the region
 Focusing on their implementation over the medium term
 Providing accountability in monitoring progress of
implementation
 Launched in total of 12 Caribbean countries
HIGHLIGHTS OF CGF PROCESS
CGF Regional Launch held in Jamaica 18-19 June, 2012
CGF St. Kitts and Nevis Chapter
Launch
CGF St. Kitts and Nevis Draft Action
Plans prepared
CGF Regional Workshop, Nassau,
The Bahamas
First CGF St. Kitts and Nevis Chapter
Accountability Workshop
February 26, 2013
Feb-May, 2013
June 24-25, 2013
June 11, 2014
CGF ACTION PLANS
 Three Thematic Areas:
 Logistics and Connectivity
 Investment Climate
 Skills and Productivity
 Action Plans prepared through meetings of
stakeholders from the public sector, private sector
and civil society
 The Ministry of Finance serves as National Focal
Point/Secretariat for CGF SKN Chapter
 Progress reporting by Ministries/Agencies involved
in implementation
BENEFITS OF CGF PROCESS
 Implementation supported by National Budget and
CGF Grants
 Contributes to the Monitor & Evaluation
framework and culture of accountability for SKN.
CARIBBEAN GROWTH FORUM
St. Kitts and Nevis Chapter
FIRST ACCOUNTABILITY WORKSHOP
Marriott Hotel  June 11, 2014
TRAFFIC LIGHT FRAMEWORK
STATUS OF IMPLEMENTATION OF PRIORITY ACTIONS
Taking Stock of a 12 month period
Sept. 2013 – August 2014
Implementation of Recommendations is Delayed
Implementation of Recommendations is In Progress
Implementation of Recommendations is Completed
No milestones to be reported for this period
RESUMEN MESA 1
Logistics and Connectivity
Thematic Area
Presented by:
Theodore Brown and Launlia Archibald
Thematic Area 1 – Logistics and Connectivity
OBJECTIVE 1 : IMPROVE OPERATIONAL
EFFICIENCY OF AIR AND SEA PORTS
1.1 Determine the most appropriate structure for
the Customs and Excise Department taking
into consideration the functionalities offered
by the new system and the potential for
streamlining the operations to make Customs
and Excise facilitators of trade and not simply
collectors of Revenue and source of
employment.
May
2014
Thematic Area 1 – Logistics and Connectivity
OBJECTIVE 1 : IMPROVE OPERATIONAL
EFFICIENCY OF AIR AND SEA PORTS
1.2 Strengthen the linkages between the Port
Authority and Customs to reduce duplication
and save time and reduce costs in the
importation process
May
2014
Thematic Area 1 – Logistics and Connectivity
OBJECTIVE 1 : IMPROVE OPERATIONAL
EFFICIENCY OF AIR AND SEA PORTS
1.3 Standardize the clearance of non-commercial
items from customs across all points of entry
into the Federation
1.4 Operationalize the Trade Facilitation Committee
in order to monitor and discuss new
procedures, policies concerns, and
developments to improve competitiveness
May
2014
Thematic Area 1 – Logistics and Connectivity
OBJECTIVE 2 : HARNESS THE POWERS OF ICT
THROUGH E-GOVERNMENT
2.1 Identify Government Services that can be
delivered through the use of ICT. Develop a
migration path and schedule for moving the
identified services online. Facilitating the
movement of goods
A. Upgrade of the Postal Services
B. EDU NET Programme
C. Closed Circuit Television (CCTV) Project
D. Inland Revenue E-Payments
May
2014
Thematic Area 1 – Logistics and Connectivity
OBJECTIVE 2 : HARNESS THE POWERS OF ICT
THROUGH E-GOVERNMENT
2.2 Design fiscal incentives for the adoption and
use of ICT in the Private sector and its
interaction with the Federal Government.
May
2014
Thematic Area 1 – Logistics and Connectivity
OBJECTIVE 3: FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
INTRA-REGIONAL TRADE
3.1 Improving access to trade/logistics information
available for islands of the region
3.2 Expansion of the Port to serve as a sub regional
hub
3.3 Incentivize and facilitate the expansion of the
services offered by liners in St Vincent,
Grenada, St Lucia and Dominica to include the
rest of the island
May
2014
SUMMARY
Thematic Area 1 – Logistics and Connectivity
RESUMEN MESA 1
1
5
1
2
RESUMEN MESA 1
Investment Climate
Thematic Area
Presented by: Dorietta Fraites
Thematic Area 2 – Investment Climate
OBJECTIVE 1 : ICT REFORM
1.1 Conduct an ICT Audit Review to take stock of
personnel (in public, civil and private sectors),
infrastructure/incentives/taxes and education
system (content, method and delivery)
May
2014
Thematic Area 2 – Investment Climate
OBJECTIVE 1 : ICT REFORM
1.2 Identify relevant and useful information to 1.1
Adopt the recommendations of the ICT4EDC to
establish an ICT Foundation that would consist of
private, public and civil society components with
at least one third private sector resources suitably
qualified
May
2014
Thematic Area 2 – Investment Climate
OBJECTIVE 2 : FACILITATE AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE
PROPERTY REGISTRATION PROCESS
2.1 Identify the inefficiencies in the Property
Registration System and facilitate its
improvement
May
2014
Thematic Area 2 – Investment Climate
OBJECTIVE 3 : CREATION OF AN OFFSHORE
EDUCATION POLICY
3.1 Fully operationalizing the Accreditation Board
3.2 Creating the environment to advance the
international education (offshore) sector
May
2014
Thematic Area 2 – Investment Climate
OBJECTIVE 3 : CREATION OF AN OFFSHORE
EDUCATION POLICY
3.3 Creating incentives for sector expansion, while
making it nationally beneficial by developing
nationals in accordance with national skills and
training gaps and needs
3.4 Canvasing reputable international schools to open
branches or segments of their operations in the
Federation
May
2014
Thematic Area 2 – Investment Climate
OBJECTIVE 4 : ESTABLISHMENT OF AN ENERGY
COMMISSION
4.1 Creation of an Energy Commission by
implementing an appropriate organizational /
management structure and systems.
May
2014
SUMMARY
Thematic Area 2 – Investment Climate
RESUMEN MESA 1
3
3
1
1
RESUMEN MESA 1
Skills and Productivity
Thematic Area
Presented by: Spencer Amory
Thematic Area 3 – Skills and Productivity
OBJECTIVE 1 : DETERMINE AND ADDRESS THE LABOUR
SKILLS GAP
1.1 Determine Skills sets and capacity of Labour &
Statistics Departments for conducting manpower
Survey
1.2 Identify Business Sector Needs - Needs will be
identified under the Compete Caribbean Project
" Consultancy to support Private Sector Development
in SKB-NEV - Gap Analysis of the World Bank Doing
Business Report"
1.3 Identify Workforce Skills Set
May
2014
Thematic Area 3 – Skills and Productivity
OBJECTIVE 2 : CURRICULUM REFORM, TO BALANCE SOFT
AND HARD SKILLS
2.1 Identifying the gaps – Soft and Hard Skills.
2.2 Enhancing the implementation and promotion of the
White Paper on Education Development Policy
2009 – 2019
2.3 Rebranding TVET
May
2014
Thematic Area 3 – Skills and Productivity
OBJECTIVE 3 : ENHANCE THE QUALITY AND SERVICE
PROVISION
3.1 Conduct an assessment to determine the level of
Service Excellence in the Federation.
3.2 Develop a National Culture of Service Excellence.
3.3 Establish a framework for sustainability of Service
Excellence within organizations
May
2014
Thematic Area 3 – Skills and Productivity
OBJECTIVE 4 : INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK: IMPLEMENT
TRI-PARTITE FRAMEWORK AND A NATIONAL
PRODUCTIVITY COUNCIL IN ADDITION TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
STRATEGY
4.1 Review and/or Assess the Barbados Tri-Partite
Arrangement for Possible Emulation
4.2 Institutionalize a Tri-Partite Committee
4.3 Create a National Productivity Council
May
2014
SUMMARY
Thematic Area 3 – Skills and Productivity
RESUMEN MESA 1
4
3
2
3
Summary of First Accountability Workshop
CGF Saint Kitts and Nevis Chapter
June 11, 2014
Nothing to
Report
21%
Delayed
27%
Completed
14%
In Progress
38%
Status on
Implementations Recommendations
Delayed
8
In Progress
11
On Track
4
Nothing to Report
6
CARIBBEAN GROWTH FORUM
St. Kitts and Nevis Chapter
FIRST ACCOUNTABILITY WORKSHOP
Marriott Hotel  June 11, 2014
CARIBBEAN GROWTH FORUM
SAINT KITTS & NEVIS CHAPTER
LAUNCH OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR
ORGANIZATIONS’ CIVIL OBSERVATORY
BASSETERRE
40
JUNE 11, 2014
WHAT IS THE
OBSERVATORY’S ROLE?
 To provide, under the co-ordination of the St. Kitts & Nevis
Antenna of the OECS Business Council, an independent
monitoring of the CGF Action Plan
 To engage Government constructively and propose
corrective measures in the reforms implementation
process
41
 To report every six months, in conjunction with the
Government CGF Accountability Workshops, on the
progress of reforms and their related impact
HOW WILL THIS BE
DONE?
 Inclusion of CGF monitoring in the OECS Business Council’s Work
Programme
 Participation in the technical training on reforms delivery and
accountability, together with the OECS Government’s CGF Focal Points
and Private Sector Organisations (PSOs) in SKN on June 12-13, 2014
 Appointment of three PSOs to co-ordinate the monitoring of the three
pillars of the CGF Action Plan, which are:
 Logistics and Connectivity
 Investment Climate
 Skills and Productivity
 Collection of evidence through the use of social accountability
techniques to monitor reforms
42
 Provision of continuous feedback to Government on reforms’
implementation
WHAT ARE SOME
EARLY MILESTONES?
 Launch of the PSOs CGF Civil Observatory by June 26, 2014 with
endorsement of a MOU among interested parties
 Publish by June 15th a Work Program for the following 6 months,
indicating which reforms will be monitored and which techniques
will be used
 Organise regular meetings with specific CGF point persons
responsible for the implementation of the Action Plan
43
 Present a First Report on implementation in November 2014 (in
conjunction with the Government’s Report)
OECS Business
Council SKN Antenna
(NAME OF PSO)
Pillar: Logistics
and Connectivity
(NAME OF PSO)
Pillar: Investment
Climate
Recommendation
X.X
Recommendation
X.X
…
…
(NAME OF PSO)
Pillar: Skills and
Productivity
…
44
WHO
Recommendation
X.X
WHY IS THIS PROJECT
NECESSARY?
 The PSOs Civil Observatory views this exercise as an
effective means of engaging the Government of St Kitts &
Nevis in constructive dialogue
 Strengthen the PSOs voice and facilitate their inclusion in
decision-making
45
 Contribute to fostering a culture of accountability,
dialogue and inclusiveness in the development of public
policy
Summary of First Accountability Workshop
CGF Saint Kitts and Nevis Chapter
June 11, 2014
Nothing to
Report
21%
Delayed
27%
Completed
14%
In Progress
38%
Status on
Implementations Recommendations
Delayed
8
In Progress
11
On Track
4
Nothing to Report
6
CARIBBEAN GROWTH FORUM
St. Kitts and Nevis Chapter
FIRST ACCOUNTABILITY WORKSHOP
Marriott Hotel  June 11, 2014
Youth unemployment in the Caribbean
Preliminary Findings and Policy Considerations
Social Protection and Labor
The World Bank
Mónica Parra-Torrado
Saint Kitts
June 11, 2014
Agenda
I. Unemployment in the Caribbean
A. External shocks
B. Unemployment dynamics
C. Gender gap
II. Youth is at higher risk of unemployment
A. Youth unemployment
B. Key contributing factors
C. Risks and costs of youth unemployment
III. Policy recommendations
A. Collection of data and information systems
B. Active Labor Market Policies
49
Agenda
I. Unemployment in the Caribbean
A. External shocks
B. Unemployment dynamics
C. Gender gap
II. Youth is at higher risk of unemployment
A. Youth unemployment
B. Key contributing factors
C. Risks and costs of youth unemployment
III. Policy recommendations
A. Collection of data and information systems
B. Active Labor Market Policies
50
Unemployment in the Caribbean
 Recent external shocks have left most Caribbean
countries with high unemployment rates
2008 global financial crisis
 Fall in commodity prices - softening of the Chinese demand for
raw materials.
 Natural disasters - Ivan (2004), Dean (2007), Omar (2008), Tomas
(2010), Tropical Storm Nicole (2010), and Haiti’s earthquake in
2009

→
Negative to zero average growth in 2009 and 2010.
51
Unemployment in the Caribbean
Real GDP annual growth in the Caribbean, 2000-2012, percentage
Country Name
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Anguilla
3.4
-4.0
5.4
14.0
13.1
20.3
13.2
-1.3
-18.3
-3.7
4.0
Antigua and Barbuda
5.1
-3.1
2.9
6.6
4.9
6.1
13.5
9.6
0.0
-12.3
-7.7
-3.0
2.8
The Bahamas
4.1
2.6
2.7
-1.3
0.9
3.4
2.5
1.4
-2.3
-4.2
1.0
1.7
1.8
Barbados
2.3
-2.6
0.7
2.0
1.4
4.0
5.7
1.7
0.3
-4.1
0.3
0.8
0.0
Belize
13.0
5.0
5.1
9.3
4.6
3.0
4.7
1.2
3.8
0.3
3.9
2.3
5.3
4.7
-3.3
-12.6
3.8
14.3
1.4
0.7
1.5
4.3
4.5
2.5
British Virgin Islands
Dominica
-5.6
-0.1
-2.1
7.4
3.0
-0.8
9.5
0.4
8.0
5.9
1.0
-0.3
-1.7
Dominican Republic
5.7
1.8
5.8
-0.3
1.3
9.3
10.7
8.5
5.3
3.5
7.8
4.5
3.9
Grenada
2.5
-2.1
3.6
9.6
-1.0
13.5
-3.9
5.9
1.0
-6.6
0.0
1.0
0.6
Guyana
-1.4
2.2
1.1
-1.0
3.3
-2.0
5.1
-3.6
2.0
3.3
4.4
5.4
4.8
Haiti
0.9
-1.0
-0.3
0.4
-3.5
1.8
2.3
3.3
0.8
2.9
-5.4
5.6
2.8
Jamaica
0.9
1.3
1.0
3.7
1.3
0.9
2.9
1.4
-0.7
-4.4
-1.5
1.7
-0.5
2.6
0.0
2.9
2.6
3.2
1.1
4.5
3.3
0.4
-3.8
1.8
Montserrat
St. Kitts and Nevis
0.7
5.2
1.9
-1.4
4.4
9.9
4.7
2.8
4.7
-6.9
-2.4
2.1
6.9
St. Lucia
0.7
-4.8
0.1
4.4
8.4
-1.9
9.3
1.5
5.3
0.1
0.4
1.3
0.5
St. Vincent and the Grenadines -0.6
1.6
6.3
7.6
4.2
2.5
7.7
3.4
1.4
-2.2
-2.8
0.1
2.3
Suriname
-0.1
4.6
4.3
6.0
9.3
4.6
3.8
5.1
4.1
3.0
4.2
5.3
3.9
Trinidad and Tobago
6.1
4.1
8.0
14.4
7.9
5.8
13.7
4.8
3.4
-4.4
0.2
-1.6
1.5
Average
2.29 1.42 1.87 3.51 3.93 5.03 6.4 3.66 2.27 -2.2 0.0 1.95522.33
Unemployment in the Caribbean
 Rapid rising unemployment: The Bahamas, Barbados, St. Lucia
and Belize.
 Slower pace of rising unemployment: Jamaica, Grenada,
Antigua and Barbuda.
 Relatively stable unemployment: Dominican Republic at
around 14% since 2008 and Guyana at around 21% since
2007.
 In contrast, Trinidad and Tobago experienced a decreasing
unemployment rate since 2000. But stable after 2008.

The lowest unemployment rate in the region
53
2012
2011
2010
21.1
2009
St. Vincent & The Grenadines
18.8
54
2012
18.1
2011
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
24.9
2010
22.2
2009
2008
14.7
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
Dominica
2004
2003
5.1
35
30
25
16.5
20
15
10
5
0
2002
St. Kitts and Nevis
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2001
13.9
2000
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
 Unemployment dynamics 2000-2012,
2000
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
5.1
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
11.0
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2001
11.0
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2002
Montserrat
2000
10.0
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2001
2012
Antigua and Barbuda
2000
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
8.4
2011
2010
2009
12.0
2008
2007
13.0
2006
2005
2004
2003
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2002
2001
2000
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2001
2000
Unemployment in the Caribbean
OECS countries.
Grenada
29.0
10.2
St. Lucia
20.6
14.0
4.6
2012
Trinidad & Tobago
4.8
55
2012
9.4
2011
2010
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
8.2
2009
2008
2007
2006
11.0
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
9.1
2005
35
30
25
20 15.5
15
10
5
0
2004
20.2
2003
21.0
2002
Guyana
2001
11.6
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2001
Barbados
2000
 Unemployment dynamics 2000-2012,
2000
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
7.4
2012
28.5
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
11.0
2007
24.4
2006
Dominican Republic
2005
2004
28.1
2003
2002
9.3
2003
2002
14.7
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2001
13.7
2000
7.6
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2001
2012
2011
2010
2009
Bahamas
2000
2012
14.1
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
14.2
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
18.4
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
10.8
2006
2005
35
30
25
20 12.1
15
10
5
0
2004
2002
2001
2000
6.9
2003
2002
35
30
25
20 13.9
15
10
5
0
2002
2001
2000
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2001
2000
Unemployment in the Caribbean
non-OECS countries.
Belize
13.0
Jamaica
12.7
Unemployment in the Caribbean
 Unemployment in the region tends to be of long duration

Individuals who spend more than a year unemployed after
they lost or left their last job:
⁻
⁻
⁻
⁻
Dominica: 51% (2008-09)
Grenada: 48% (2007-08)
Barbados: 34% (2010)
St. Kitts and Nevis: 32% (2007-08)
56
Unemployment in the Caribbean
 Unemployment is considerably higher among females
than among males in most countries.
35
Male
32
Female
Fem./Male
2.5
30
25
22
%
18
14 14
11
17
12
10
1.5
19
17
1.0
12
10
10
8
10
7
4
5
0
0.5
0.0
2011
2012
2009
The
Bahamas
Barbados
Belize
2012
2008
Dominican Grenada
Republic
2011
2011
Guyana
Jamaica
2007
2008
2012
St. Lucia St. Vincent Trinidad &
& The
Tobago
Grenadines
57
Female/Male
20
20
15
2.0
26
26
Unemployment in the Caribbean
 Dynamics of unemployment gender gap:

It has decreased in recent years in The Bahamas and
Barbados.
⁻ But because unemployment increased more for males
than for females

The gender story has been more positive in the
Dominican Republic (2004-2011)
⁻ Female’s unemployment actually decreased more than
male’s
58
Female
17
15
13
11
9
7
5
3
2011
2012
2012
2012
2009
2008
2011
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
2010
10
2011
15
2010
20
2010
25
2009
St. Vincent and the Granadines
2009
Guyana
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2008
2007
2006
Trinidad and Tobago
2002
%
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
%
25
2005
30
2004
15
2003
20
2002
Male
Female
2001
St. Lucia
2000
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
Grenada
2001
2000
2012
%
2011
2010
2009
2008
25
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
30
2007
4
2003
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2006
9
2002
5
2005
5
2001
%
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
2004
14
2003
10
2002
Dominican Republic
2001
7
2000
9
2001
2000
%
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
11
2002
19
2000
Jamaica
%
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
13
2001
%
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
The Bahamas
2000
Male
2006
2005
24
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
%
15
2004
2002
2001
2000
%
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2003
2002
2001
2000
%
Unemployment in the Caribbean
Barbados
Belize
20
15
10
5
0
59
Agenda
I. Unemployment in the Caribbean
A. External shocks
B. Unemployment dynamics
C. Gender gap
II. Youth is at higher risk of unemployment
A. Youth unemployment
B. Key contributing factors
C. Risks and costs of youth unemployment
III. Policy recommendations
A. Collection of data and information systems
B. Active Labor Market Policies
60
Youth at higher risk of unemployment
Total youth
4.8
12.0
33.8
18.8
12.7
20.6
30.1
34.0
46.1
Total
21.0
24.9
15.6
30.3
27.54
11.14
20
7.9
%
18.9
40
42.0
60
Total
Jamaica
St. Lucia
St. Vincent & Trinidad &
The
Tobago
Grenadines
23.9
Male youth
3.6
9.6
17.2
21.2
6.7
20
9.3
16.7
%
40
Males
Male
43.6
60
10.5
Guyana
27.8
2010
Grenada
12.2
2011
Dominican
Republic
2012
2011
2008
2008
The Bahamas Barbados*
2007
2010
2007
0
2007
2011
2011
2008
2012
Dominican Republic
Guyana
Jamaica
St. Vincent & The
Grenadines
Trinidad & Tobago
Female youth
41.4
37.9
50.0
Female
6.6
14.5
26.2
25.4
The Bahamas
17.2
20
9.1
%
21.7
40
25.7
44.5
60
2007
0
Females
2007
2007
2011
2011
2008
2012
0
The Bahamas
Dominican Republic
Guyana
Jamaica
St. Vincent & The
Grenadines
Trinidad & Tobago
61
Particularly the teenagers
Barbados, 2012
Belize, 2009
60
50
50
50
47
Female
43
Male
Total
43
Female
40
40
%
%
21
20
16
16
20
20
14 13 14
5
0
20-44
45-64
25 - 49
50-64
9
5 6
0
Dominica, 2008/09
0
15-19
6
3
65+
50
40
14 - 19
20-24
65+
47
41
37
Female
282727
30
%
22
18
13
20
10
Male
Total
24
15 16
5
14
12 13
1112 11
8
8 867
7
5
3
9
53
56
65+
7
6
5
10
60-64
10
11
10
8
Total
28
26
30
30
Male
33
0
15
17
10
7
5
3
3
0
10 - 19
20 - 39
40 - 59
60 +
3
2
3
5
4
2
6
5
3
1
4
2
4
33
3
21
0
62
60+
8
25-29
5
10
4
1
12
20-24
11
5
15-19
20
Total
55-59
18
7
6
6
50-54
%
27
Male
11
10
36
29
Female
15
14 14
45-49
Total
40-44
Male
35-39
Female
30-34
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
52
40
%
Trinidad & Tobago, 2012
20
50
30
20-24
Dominican Republic, 2012
60
15-19
0
Youth unemployment
Although it’s a global phenomenon, some Caribbean countries are
among those with the highest youth unemployment rates in the world.
60
Youth Unemployment (% )

45◦ line
50
GUY
GDR
(2008)
40
VCT
(2008)
30
JAM
20
LCA (2010)
DOM
(2007)
BHS (2007)
TTO
10
y = 1.8668x + 3.1516
R² = 0.9113
0
0
10
20
30
40
Total Unemployment (%)
50
60
63
Key contributing factors

There are two main factors preventing young people entering the labor market.

Lack of skills
Quality of education is a known issue: passing rates of CSEC in Math and English are around 45%
on average and it is not better in other subjects. Only 21.36% of students passed 5 or more CSEC
examination, others are far from this. (CXC, 2012)
⁻ Supply of skills does not respond to demand: 72% of educators vs. 42% employers think
graduates are adequately prepared for the labor market. (Mourshed et al. 2012; IDB, 2013)
⁻ Employers value socio-emotional skills, followed by higher-order cognitive skills and technical
skills but have difficulty recruiting due to lack of such skills. (Cunningham & Villaseñor, 2014)
⁻ Employers value work experience: adult workers are more likely than younger ones to
successfully apply job-specific skills and to have stronger socio-emotional skills and work ethics,
and therefore to be more productive in the workplace
⁻

Lack of information
Use of informal methods of job search.
⁻ Employers don’t have information on young workers: resumes but not work experience.
⁻ Lack of experience is an issue: no possibility of referrals and lack of skills learned and proven on
the job.
⁻

Other factors are low labor demand and specific vulnerabilities.
64
Risks and costs of youth unemployment
So, youth is out of the education and training systems, without job opportunities,
and exposed to risky behaviors: are we losing a generation to discouragement?

The share of youth NEET in the Caribbean is also high.
28% in Belize (17% of males and 39% of females) and 21% in DR (33% of males and
27% of females).
 Despite higher investment, school enrollment rates are still low in several countries in
the region.
 Decreasing labor force participation of youth compared to adults.

Youth is also exposed to risky behaviors (“ways out”):
 Early sexual activity and adolescent fertility.


Although in a declining trend, youth fertility rates are considerably high in some
Caribbean countries, some among the highest in the world.
Use of illegal substances, crime and violence.

It seems to be an increasing problem in the region.
65
Risks and costs of youth unemployment
Costly risks to be concerned about:
 Youth unemployment leaves permanent scars for life: it reduces
employment prospects and earnings.

Gregg (2001), Gregg and Tominey (2005)
 Unemployment and inactivity affect negatively the individual’s
mental health status and are not compensated when securing
employment.

Milner et al. (2013), Mckenzie (2014), Flint et al. (2013)
 High youth unemployment, early school leaving, and risky
behaviors have long-lasting individual and social costs.

Chaaban (2009), Cunningham and García-Verdú (2008)
66
Agenda
I. Unemployment in the Caribbean
A. External shocks
B. Unemployment dynamics
C. Gender gap
II. Youth is at higher risk of unemployment
A. Youth unemployment
B. Key contributing factors
C. Risks and costs of youth unemployment
III. Policy recommendations
A. Collection of data and information systems
B. Active Labor Market Policies
67
Policy recommendations
Two main policy recommendations
 Collection of data and information systems.
 Active Labor Market Policies.
68
Policy recommendations
Collection of data and information systems


The lack of information is a challenge for better diagnostics of labor markets in
the Caribbean that should be further addressed.
 Collect micro-data on a regular basis to understand labor markets
 Monitoring and evaluation systems
There are some recent promising initiatives in the region aimed at closing the
information gap.
Monitoring information systems - World Bank IDF grant with University of the
West Indies
 Sustainable Household Data Collection Programme (SDP) for the Measurement of
Living Standards in the OECS

Under the leadership of the OECS Living Standards Measurement Committee (LSMC),
with the additional support of ILO.
⁻ World Bank team has been supporting the OECS Statistical Office in the
strengthening of the statistical units in OECS countries and the development of
harmonized labor force survey.
69
⁻
Policy recommendations
Active Labor Market Policies (ALMPs)

Social Protection and Labor System based on three pillars.
ALMPs
 Social assistance
 Social insurance.


ALMPs.
Job search, job counseling, intermediation
 Training and skills development


ALMPs in the region (preliminary analysis).
Important spending but small coverage
 Considerable redundancy and duplication
 Lack of coordination and evident gaps in the supply of services

70
Policy recommendations
Youth education and employment programs to address lack of skills and information

There are several models of programs, three main groups:

Programs that focus on skills development


Chilecalifica, National Guard Youth ChallenGe and Job Corps
Programs that focus on matching employers and job seekers
Argentina’s Servicio Público de Empleo, UK’s Jobcentre Plus, A&B’s One Stop Job
Centre,
 Subsidio al Empleo Jóven and Colombia’s Contrato de Aprendizaje


Programs that aim both at developing skills and bringing together employers
and job seekers
German dual VET System, Career Academy model and YouthBuild in the US,
 Entra 21 and New Employment Opportunities in LAC, DR’s Programa Juventud y
Empleo, Jamaica’s Steps-to-Work
71

Policy recommendations
Youth education and employment programs to address lack of skills and information

Of all youth programs, those that combine skills development with on-the-job
training or work-based activities and job placement components are more
effective in improving employability and earnings

Skills are better learned on the job, in particular life and work skills.
Chance to see how the real world works in terms of the work-specific activity but
also in terms of the relationships and situations that evolve in regular days at work.
 See how the topics learned are applied in real life.
 In working environments students get the chance to face real problems,
consequences and challenges that helps them in the development of selfconfidence, problem-solving and critical thinking abilities, work ethics, among
other life and work skills (Lerman, 2013; Halpern, 2012; Halpern, 2009; Rauner,
2007).
 There is evidence that youth prefer to learn in interactive settings: on the job
(62%), hands-on (58%), multimedia (54%) (Mourshed et al., 2011).

72
Policy recommendations
Implementing key factors: actors
 The participation and commitment of employers is fundamental.
 Employers know their demand for skills.
 Training and mentoring.
 Feeding information systems.
 Government coordination and regulation is essential to ensure
quality and proper functionality of the schemes.



Beyond design and financing.
Provide institutional infrastructure.
Provide spaced for communication among actors, guide dialogue, make sure
action is taken
73
Policy recommendations
Implementing key factors: SPL System

One size does not fit all: the need for a one-stop shop with tailor-made
services.

One-stop shop: centralizing the supply of information and services in one place
S
e
r
v
i
c
e
s
⁻
Job seeker obtains information on all
services in one place (referrals).
⁻
Coordination of programs and services’
supply: avoids duplication and closes any
gaps in provision (System approach).
⁻
Policy makers can design programs in an
interconnected manner ensuring a path out
of unemployment towards a self-sustained
income generating status (quality job).
⁻
Facilitates the collection and maintenance
of databases to the authorities, for example,
using a single data registry for targeting and
service provision (Cadastro Único in Brasil). 74
Policy recommendations
Implementing key factors: SPL System

One size does not fit all: the need for a one-stop shop with tailor-made
services.
Tailor-made services: recognize the heterogeneity of job seekers and their needs

⁻
Not of all individuals have the same
needs, not of all of them lack the same
skills, not all of them lack skills at all!
⁻
It’s not just standard demographics or
academic qualification. It’s also its
interaction with life trajectories what
better explains the needs of service.
⁻
It’s more effective in responding to needs.
⁻
It’s more efficient: more accurate
targeting of programs and services.
75
Policy recommendations
Implementing key factors: SPL System
 Ensuring programs are cost effective and financially sustainable.

Scarce resources: Government needs to assess which programs are
most cost effective and suited to country context.

Monitoring and evaluation of programs allows a feedback loop to
policy makers who can then assess whether programs are well
designed, financially sustainable and effective in achieving their
outcomes.

Piloting interventions and evaluating them prior to scale up is essential.
76
Thank you!

77
CARIBBEAN GROWTH FORUM
St. Kitts and Nevis Chapter
FIRST ACCOUNTABILITY WORKSHOP
Marriott Hotel  June 11, 2014
CGF PROCESS – NEXT STEPS
 Continued implementation and monitoring of
priority actions by relevant
Ministries/Agencies
 Staging of next CGF SKN Chapter
Accountability Report on Progress –
November/December 2014
 Participation in Final CGF Regional Workshop
to compare with other countries and take
stock of the first year of reforms
CARIBBEAN GROWTH FORUM
St. Kitts and Nevis Chapter
FIRST ACCOUNTABILITY WORKSHOP
Marriott Hotel  June 11, 2014