Transcript A CASE-BASED REASONING MODEL FOR STRATEGIC …

A CASE-BASED
REASONING MODEL
FOR STRATEGIC
DECISION MAKING
CASE-BASED REASONING
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CBR IS A METHOD OF SOLVING A CURRENT
PROBLEM BY ANALOGIZING THE SOLUTIONS
TO PREVIOUS SIMILAR PROBLEMS.
A CBR SYSTEM DRAWS ITS KNOWLEDGE
FROM A REASONABLY LARGE SET OF CASES
CONTAINED IN THE CASE LIBRARY OF PAST
PROBLEMS RATHER THAN ONLY FROM A SET
OF RULES.
IT SOLVES NEW PROBLEMS BY ADAPTING
SOLUTIONS THAT WERE USED TO SOLVE
OLD PROBLEMS.
CBR COMPRISES ESSENTIALLY
3 TASKS,
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RETRIEVES ONE OR A SMALL SET OF
THE MOST SIMILAR CASES.
SOLVES THE NEW SOLUTION BY
REUSING OR REVISING FORMER
SOLUTIONS
RETAINS THE NEW CASE AND
SOLUTION AS PART OF PAST CASES FOR
FUTURE RETRIEVALS.
PROCESS OF CBR
SIMILARITY
MEASURING
MODULE
CASE LIBRARY: REPOSITORY OF
PAST CASES AND MODULES
CASE INDEXING
MODULE
CASE
RETRIEVE
CASE MATCH
AND RETRIEVAL
MODULE
CASE RETAIN
CASE
REUSE
CASE
ADAPTATION
MODULE
NEW PROBLEM
CASE REVISE
REVISED SOLUTION
PROPOSED
SOLUTION
CASEBID – BID DECISION SUPPORT
SYSTEM (CHUA ET AL., 2001)
WHY THEY USED CBR FOR BID DECISIONS?
 BIDDING BEHAVIOURS ARE AFFECTED BY
MANY INTERRELATED FACTORS-COMPLEX
 UNSTRUCTURED
 NO CLEAR RULES
BID MARKUP
PROBABILITY OF WINNING
COMPETITION
COMPANY’S POSITION
IN BIDDING
EXTERNAL FACTORS:
1. JOB RELATED (NATURE OF WORK ETC.)
2. ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS
(ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ETC.)
MARKUP PREFERENCE
TRADE-OFF
RISK MARGIN
NEED FOR WORK
INTERNAL (FIRM-RELATED
FACTORS (EXPERIENCE
ETC.)
BID REASONING MODEL IN CASEBID
ABOUT CASEBID:
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IMPORTANCE WEIGHTS OF FACTORS
WITH RESPECT TO COMPETITION –
SURVEY
IMPORTANCE WEIGHTS OF FACTORS
WITH RESPECT TO RISK – SURVEY
INDEXING TREES ARE CONSTRUCTED
30 CASES DEFINED
BUILT BY USING RECALL
A BID MARKUP OPTIMIZATION MODEL
STRUCTURE OF CASEBID
BID:
UNIT PRICE:
AVAILABILITY OF OTHER PROJECTS
DATE OF BIDDING
BID RESULT
RATIO OF ACTUAL COST AND ESTIMATED COST
COMPETENCE OF ESTIMATORS
COMPETITOR’S BID (LINK VARIABLE)
INTERPRETATION OF SPECIFICATION
DEGREE OF TECHNOLOGICAL DIFFICULTY
EXPERTISE IN MANAGEMENT
OWNER
LOW BID MARKUP
PROJECT PUBLIC EXPOSURE AND PRESTIGE
PROJECT TIMESCALE AND PENALTY FOR NON-COMPLETION
SAFETY HAZARDS
SIMILAR EXPERIENCE
SIZE OF PROJECT
TIME ALLOWED FOR BID PREPARATION
TYPE OF CONTRACT
TYPE OF PROJECT
BID METHOD
COMPLETENESS OF
SPEC.
DELAY/SHORTAGE
OF PAYMENT
COMPETITION
RATING
LUMP SUM:
CASH FLOW
REQUIREMENT
OPT.
MARK
UP
COMPLETENESS OF
SPEC.
RESOURCE PRICE
FLUCTUATION
RISK
RATING
DESIGN BUILD:
ADEQUACY OF PRICE
INFORMATION
AVAILABILITY OF
STAFF
BID METHOD
CURRENT WORKLOAD
TIME ALLOWED FOR
BID PREPARATION