Transcript SF Skykomish River Wild Coho Spawners & Smolt production

Closing the Loop: Modeling the coho
salmon life cycle in the context of habitat,
climate, and management
Pete Lawson, Libby Logerwell, Nate Mantua,
Bob Francis, and Vera Agostini
OCN
Oregon Coastal Natural
Coho salmon
Queets River
•Aggregate of 13 basins
•Rain-fed streams
•Threatened status (on and off)
O
D
O
O
OCN Coho
O
D
O
D
O D
D Air Temperature Data
O Streamflow Data
Smolt Year
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
500.0
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
Coho Salmon (x 1000)
The OCN Problem:
OCN Recruits (t+1) and Spawners (t-2)
600.0
OCN Spawners (t-2)
OCN Recruits (t+1)
400.0
300.0
200.0
100.0
0.0
OCN Recruits (t+1) and OPIH survival (t)
600.0
0.1400
OCN Recruits (t+1)
0.1200
OPIH Marine Survival (t)
500.0
0.1000
0.0800
300.0
0.0600
200.0
0.0400
100.0
0.0200
0.0
1968
0.0000
1973
1978
1983
Smolt Year
1988
1993
1998
Marine Survival
Recruits (x 1000)
400.0
OCN smolts and smolts/spawner reconstructed from
OPIH- and GAM-estimated marine survivals. 1992
estimate omitted from analysis.
8000.0
500.0
1992
Adjusted Smolts
450.0
7000.0
Adjusted Smolts per Spawner
400.0
6000.0
300.0
4000.0
250.0
200.0
3000.0
150.0
2000.0
100.0
1000.0
50.0
Smolt Year
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
0.0
1970
0.0
Smolts per Spawner
5000.0
1969
Smolts (x 1000)
350.0
Environmental data sets -- freshwater
• 1969-1999 smolt year
• Stream Flow
– From 6 USGS gauging stations
• Monthly mean flow
• Standardized at each station, then averaged
• Air Temperature
– From 3 WRCC locations
• Annual mean air temperature
• Standardized at each station, then averaged
1000
-2000
0
partial for Trans
1000
-1000 0
-3000
partial for AnnTemp
Partial plots for OCN smolts
-1
0
1
2
280
320
340
1000
0
-2000
-1000
0
partial for P5
1000
Trans
Fall Transition
Transitionv
-3000
bs(P4, knots = 0, degree = 1)
AnnualAnnTemp
Temperature
300
-2
-1
0
1
WinterP4Flow (t1)
2
-1
0
1
SpringP5Flow (t1)
2
7000
Observed and fitted OCN smolts
4000
3000
2000
1000
Smolts
Adj Smolts
5000
6000
Observed
Predicted
1970
1975
1980
1985
Year
Year
1990
1995
2000
So why should we believe this?
Because I repeated the analysis with a
completely independent data set
from the Queets River, Washington.
•One basin
•Glacier-fed
•1981-2000 smolt years
•Smolts and spawners measured directly
•No dams
•Flow data from USGS -- one station
•Air temperature data from WRCC -- one station
100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000
Smolts
Smolts
0
10^5
-1
0
1
1985
-2*10^5
-10^5
0
10^5
bs(P4, knots = 0, degree = 1)
-1.5*10^5
partial for AnnTemp
Results for Queets Smolts
2
-1
Annual AnnTemp
Temperature
1990
Year
Year
0
1
1995
2
P4Flow (t1)
Winter
Observed
Predicted
2000
The bottom line:
Freshwater
Marine
Marine and freshwater environmental variables are correlated
so that good (poor) marine survival is associated with good
(poor) freshwater production.
Year
SST.JFM.t0
Trans
UW.AMJ
SST.JFM.t1
SST.JFM.t0
0.466
1
Trans
0.246
0.225
1
UW.AMJ
-0.239
-0.196
-0.462
1
SST.JFM.t1
0.439
0.134
0.261
-0.140
1
Fall Trans
0.058
-0.019
-0.235
0.011
0.124
P4
-0.054
-0.125
0.352
0.175
-0.054
P5
0.156
0.047
0.468
-0.399
0.082
Ann Temp
0.676
0.375
0.424
-0.461
0.359
Spawners
Metapopulation
Dynamics
Early
OO
Harvest
Management
++
Medium
High
(0.0008 to 0.0014 )
(0.0015 to 0.0039)
(>0.0040 jacks/smolt)
Medium
Low
Parent Spawners > 19% & <
50% of full seeding
Very Low
Parent Spawners > 4 fish
per mile & < 19% of full
seeding
2/
Critical
Parental Spawners < 4 fish
per mile
E
J
O
T
< 8%
< 15%
< 30%
< 45%
D
I
N
S
< 8%
< 15%
< 20%
< 38%
C
H
M
R
< 8%
< 15%
< 15%
< 25%
B
G
L
Q
< 8%
< 11%
< 11%
< 11%
A
F
K
P
0 - 8%
0 - 8%
0 - 8%
Egg-to-Parr Survival Rate
Low
(<0.0008 jacks/smolt)
Parent Spawners > 50% & <
75% of full seeding
0 - 8%
Sub-aggregate and Basin Specific Spawner Criteria Data
"Critical"
100% of
Full
Seeding
4 Fish per
Mile
Very Low, Low, Medium & High
12% of Full 19% of Full 50% of Full 75% of full
Seeding
Seeding
Seeding
Seeding
899
21,700
3,596
NA
4,123
10,850
16,275
North - Central
1,163
55,000
4,652
NA
10,450
27,500
41,250
South - Central
1,685
6,740
NA
9,500
25,000
37,500
Northern
Southern
Coastwide Total
50,000
450
5,400
4,197
132,100
NA
86
15,074
1,026
2,700
4,050
25,099
66,050
99,075
0.50
0.40
Sparr = 0.064P
0.30
-0.743
2
R = 0.68
0.20
0.10
0.00
0%
25%
50%
75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200%
Percent of Full Seeding (P)
Freshwater
Habitat
Marine Survival
0.16
10
0.14
+/- 1 S.E.
0.06
5
OCN Coho Index
0.08
4
2
0.02
WOC Coho production
Year
GAM modelled survival
Observed survival
GAM forecast survival
GAM hindcast survival
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1975
1973
1971
1969
1967
1965
1963
1961
1959
1957
1955
1953
1951
0
1949
0
Standardized Anomaly
4
0.04
1947
production - millions of fish
0.1
6
OPI marine survival
0.12
8
1977
Sub-aggregate
Miles of Available
Spawning Habitat
++
Eggs
(based on return of jacks per hatchery smolt)
Extremely Low
Parent Spawners > 75% of full
seeding
OO
*
fecundity
Marine Survival Index
Parent Spawner
Status 1/
High
Population
Dynamics
* Late
3
1500
0
1950
2
2000
Climate Patterns
1
0
-1
-2
-3
Observed PDO
-4
1900
1950
Projected PNA
2000
Year
2050
2100
33 Generation Time Series of
Spawning Escapements with
Zero Harvest and Two Harvest Strategies
1000
800
Base
Thousands of Spawners
600
400
200
0
800
Exploitation Rate <= 35%
600
400
200
0
800
Escapement Goal = 200 thousand
600
400
200
0
0
10
20
Generation
30
Local Extinction Probabilities with
Zero Harvest and Two Harvest Policies
Basin
Nehalem
Tillamook
Nestucca
North Tribs
Siletz
Yaquina
Alsea
Siuslaw
Mid Tribs
Umpqua
Base
Exp. Rate
Esc. Goal
Coos
Coquille
Rogue
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Probability of Extinction in 100 Years
DON’T PANIC!
The model is definitive, reality may vary.
Nine Questions to Validate Models
1. Is the structure adequate to serve the purposes for which it
will be used?
2. What characteristics of the simulated system have been left
out or simplified?
3. What might the effects be?
4. How do model structure and behavior compare to similar
models?
5. How are uncertainty and error incorporated into the
analysis, and how do the results depend on uncertainties
and assumptions?
Nine Questions to Validate Models (cont'd)
6. Are the parameter definitions and ranges justifiable?
7. Does the model produce expected behaviors for ordinary,
as well as extraordinary cases-i.e., have the authors defined
the range over which the model is valid, and the
circumstances under which the model is questionable or
invalid?
8. Does the model respond appropriately and usefully to
simulated policies?
9. How does the analysis relate to the problem as it is defined,
and the conclusions drawn?
a: Freshwater Habitat Quality
+
b: Ocean Environment
Escapement
=
c: Population Size
B
C
0
A
Time
Lawson 1993
D
PDO Projected by Hadley Centre Model
OCN Coho Index
5
Standardized Anomaly
4
3
1500
0
1950
2
2000
1
0
-1
-2
-3
Observed PDO
-4
1900
1950
Projected PNA
2000
Year
2050
2100
Peter Lawson
NMFS/NWFSC
2030 SE Marine Science Drive
Newport, OR 97365
541-867-0430
[email protected]