Transcript Salmon Monitoring & Flow Effects

Environmental Factors Affecting
Salmon Production
Dave Seiler
Washington Department of Fish & Wildlife
Science Division
Map
Coho spawner
Coho Fry
Coho Smolt
Sunset Falls
SF Skykomish River
Deschutes River screw trap
at Tumwater Falls
Big Beef Creek during flood
Bingham Creek
Skagit River traps from air
Skagit River screw & scoop traps, near Mt Vernon
Clearwater River scoop trap
W – Fence Trap
Adult Returns to Sunset Falls Fishway
SF Skykomish River
60,000
50,000
Coho
Chinook
Steelhead
Adults
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003
Return Year
Deschutes River Adult Coho Returns
12,000
Adults
8,000
4,000
0
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
Return Year
1998
2001
2004
Big Beef Creek Smolt Production
Coho, Cutthroat & Steelhead
Smolt Production
50,000
Coho
40,000
Cutthroat
Steelhead
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
Smolt Year
1996
1999
2002
Bingham Creek Smolt Production
Coho, Cutthroat & Steelhead
80,000
Smolt Production
Coho
Cutthroat
Steelhead
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
Smolt Year
1997
2000
2003
Big Beef & Bingham Creeks
Coho Smolt Productions
Smolt Production
80,000
Bingham
Big Beef
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
Smolt Year
1996
1999
2002
Marine Survival
Puget Sound Wild Coho
35%
Marine Survival
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Return Year
Big Beef
Deschutes
SF Skykomish
Baker River
Marine Survival
Bingham Creek Wild Coho
Marine Survival
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
Return Year
Skagit River Wild Coho Smolt Production
Production (millions)
2.5
2.0
R2 = 85%
Even Years
Odd Years
1.5
R2 = 61%
1.0
BY 2002
Low Summer Flows
& Fall Floods
0.5
0.0
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
Brood Year
1999
2001
2003
Chehalis River Minimum Spawning
Flows
& Subsequent Coho Smolt Production, BYs 19802000
4.0
Smolts (millions)
Actual
Low Escapement
Predicted
3.0
R2 = 73%
2.0
1.0
1997
1994
0.0
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Minimum Spawning Flow (cfs)
2,500
Bingham Creek Wild Coho, BYs 1980-2001
Smolt Production & Low Flows
80,000
Smolt Production
1995
60,000
1998
1996
1999
40,000
2001
R2 = 95%
2000
20,000
1997
1993
0
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
Puget Sound 60-day Average Low Flow (proportion)
Before Screen Removal
After Screen Removal in 1992
150%
Bingham Creek Coho Smolt Production
Related to Peak November Flows
Following Screen Removal at Lake Nahwatzel
% Additional Smolts
200%
R2 = 97%
150%
100%
50%
0%
-50%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Satsop Peak Daily Flow (Nov)
30,000
Cedar River Wild Sockeye Fry
Survival as a Function of Peak Incubation Flow
15%
Egg-to-Migrant Survival
R2 = 75%
10%
5%
0%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Peak Incubation Flow
6,000
7,000
8,000
Egg-to-Migrant Survival and Peak Flow
in the Skagit River
Wild Zero-Age Chinook: Brood Years 1989-2001
Egg-to-Migrant Survival
24%
Actual
2000 Outlier
Predicted
1993
1998
18%
1997
2000
1996 1994
12%
R2 = 90%
2001
1999
6%
1989
1995
1990
0%
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
Peak Incubation Flow (cfs)
150,000
175,000
Clearwater River Wild Coho Smolt Production &
Peak Flow During Egg Incubation, Brood years 1979-2001
120,000
Smolt Production
R2 = 40%
90,000
60,000
1983
Low Escapement
1994
30,000
1997
Not Included
Predicted
0
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
Peak Incubation Flow (cfs), Queets River
80,000
In-River Survival of Hatchery Sockeye Fry
Released at Landsburg Hatchery
Cedar River 1995
100%
80%
Actual
Survival
Predicted
60%
40%
20%
0%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Flow (cfs)
2,500
3,000
3,500
Bear Creek Sockeye Fry Survival
Related to Flows During Migration
Brood Years 1996 - 2003
20%
2001
Egg-to-Fry Survival
R2 = 62.8%
15%
1998
1997
10%
1999
2003
5%
2000
2002
1996
Ice Storm
0%
50
100
150
Average Flow (Feb 1 - March 31)
200
Cedar River Chinook Migration
1 8 ,0 0 0
3 ,0 0 0
2003
1 9 3 ,9 9 4 F ry
4 1 ,2 6 1 S m o lts
F lo w
1 2 ,0 0 0
2 ,0 0 0
9 ,0 0 0
6 ,0 0 0
1 ,0 0 0
F lo w (c fs )
M ig ra n ts
1 5 ,0 0 0
3 ,0 0 0
0
6,000
0
3,000
10,994 Fry
21,255 Sm olts
Flow
4,000
2,000
0
1-Jan
2,000
1,000
1-Feb
1-Mar
1-Apr
1-May
1-Jun
0
1-Jul
Flow (cfs)
Migrants
2001
Cedar River Wild Sockeye Fry Migration Timing
as a Function of Temperature
100
Median Migration Date
R2 = 59%
90
80
70
2000 Brood
Earthquake &
Low Flows
60
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
Average February Temperature (C)
7.5
8
Proportion of PIT Tagged Chinook
Detected at the Ballard Locks
Lake Washington Temperatures at Fremont Bridge
Average of years 2001 – 2003
80%
Release Site:
Cedar River
Temp.
65
Bear Creek
62
60%
59
40%
56
20%
53
0%
50
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
Statistical Week Tagged
Temperature (F)
Detection Rate
100%
Number of Days Water
Temperature Exceeded 20
degrees C
Lake Washington Ship Canal
100
90
y=3980.7+2.033*year
80
R2=0.63
70
P<0.001
Days Exceeding 20 C
60
50
40
DAYS
30
PREDICTED DAYS
20
10
0
1970
1975
Data provided by Fred Goetz, USACE
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Yakima River Flow Range at Prosser During
Fall Chinook Smolt Migration
6,000
Minimum
Mean
1992
5,000
Flow
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
04/01
05/01
05/31
Date
06/30
Fall Chinook Smolt Migration Past
Prosser & West Richland
and Stream Temperature, Yakima River 1992
90
32
(thousands)
24
80
16
70
8
60
0
04/07
50
Maximum Daily
Temperature (F)
Estimated Migration
Prosser
Richland
Temperature
04/21
05/05
05/19
Date
06/02
06/16
74,000 smolts
transported June 4-15