Transcript Slide 1

What Program Areas
And In Which State Regions
Do We Need To Grow?
Part I
Commission on Higher Education Access and Attainment
December 10, 2012
2
Part A
Introduction
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3
Key Questions
Shorter-term
• What industries and occupations are projected to be in greatest demand in
Florida between now and 2020?
• State-wide
• By region
• Operationalizing an example of Gap Analysis: What is the gap between
projected demand and potential supply for I.T.?
• State-wide
• For what regions
• If we accept BOG degree projections to 2020, what is the potential demand for
graduates in top occupations?
Longer-term
• Does the Commission envision a more ambitious future for Florida – with
demand for higher levels of education for future workers? If so, what is the
benchmark (an overall growth factor)? The Big 4 states? High Performing
States? Other?
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4
Definition of Terms
Demand: Degree-holders employers are projected to need
Supply: Degree-holders the higher education system can potentially generate
Total Employment: All non-agricultural jobs in Florida
Total Openings: The combined job openings from both growth and replacement
Annual Openings: The projected job openings each year
Growth Job: Additional jobs above and beyond the replacement jobs total
Replacement Job: Job vacancy created by retirees and leavers
Industry Sectors: Employer industry categories of FL DEO & U.S. Dept. of Labor
SOC Codes: Standard Occupational Classification codes (FL DEO & U.S. DOL)
IPEDS: Federal Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (U.S. Dept. of
Education)
CIP Codes: Classification scheme for curricular disciplines and majors (IPEDS
degree categories, U.S. DOE)
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Part B
The Current Demand Picture
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Florida Employment
Florida’s recession job loss was huge.
Projecting supply, demand and gaps is especially
challenging in this economic climate.
•
•
•
•
•
Employment levels dropped to what they were almost a decade ago.
Recovery is projected to be slower than past recoveries.
More unemployed Floridians with college degrees will be seeking jobs
alongside newly graduated degree-holders in the future.
Florida is projected to gain more than one million new jobs between 2012 and
2020 (1.6% annual growth).
The unemployment rate is forecast to decline to 6.5% by 2020, and projected
total employment will be just over 9 million jobs.
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Occupational Employment by Educational
Requirement (Projected to 2020)
Florida Occupational Employment by Educational Requirement
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Education Codes
Projected
10,000,000
9,000,000
8,000,000
7,000,000
372,300
288,500
1,185,200
305,300
6,000,000
s
317,900
1,106,950
1,743,450
448,100
435,150
1,691,400
3,524,200
1,257,000
518,900
Master's and above
495,500
Bachelor's Degree
Associate's Degree
b
5,000,000
o
J
3,908,500
4,000,000
Postsecondary
Vocational
High School Diploma
3,000,000
2,000,000
Less than High School
3,244,100
2,255,400
1,000,000
2,540,800
0
2004
2012
2020
Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center, Employment Projections Program.
Prepared: October 2012.
Source: Florida Dept. of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics, Ctr., Employment Projections Program,
Prepared Oct. 2012
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Florida Projected Job Growth and Replacement
(Baccalaureate Level and Higher)
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Florida Projected Job Openings Requiring a Bachelor's Degree or Higher
Cumulative Growth 2012 - 2020-
(BLS Education Codes)
450,000
Column A
400,000
Column B
Job Openings (Growth and Replacement)
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
393,498
338,579
Column C
100,000
104,322
50,000
2012 - 2020
2012 - 2020
2012 - 2020
0
Requiring a Bachelor's
(RNs included)
Requiring a Bachelor’s
(RNs excluded)
Requiring a Master's or Higher
Source: Florida Dept. of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Ctr. Employment Projections Program. Prepared Oct. 2012
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Current Jobs Requiring a Bachelor’s Degree
by Industry in Florida (2012)
Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center, Employment Projections Program, Forecast to 2020, released September 2012.
9
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Total Jobs: Workforce Demand within Industries
by Educational Level (if current trends continue)
INDUSTRY
TOTAL
JOBS
Projected for 2020
TOTAL, All Industries
Education and Health Services
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Professional and Business Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Self Employed
Government
Financial Activities
Construction
Other Services (Except Government)
Manufacturing
Information
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
Mining
9,092,891
1,928,405
1,651,109
1,287,322
1,105,742
706,032
569,907
526,575
449,302
345,770
311,954
130,016
77,513
3,244
Associate Degree
#
518,913
284,055
16,068
92,888
7,468
30,037
27,767
6,521
23,871
15,334
10,370
4,137
307
90
%
6%
15%
1%
7%
1%
4%
5%
1%
5%
4%
3%
3%
0%
3%
Bachelor's & Higher
#
1,629,281
634,886
100,373
325,046
27,776
138,987
135,182
97,883
23,988
57,341
46,095
39,451
2,122
151
%
18%
33%
6%
25%
3%
20%
24%
19%
5%
17%
15%
30%
3%
5%
Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center, Employment Projections Program, Forecast to 2020, released September 2012.
(*Projections rounded to the nearest 100.)
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Annual Average Occupational Demand
Growth by Specific Occupation (Baccalaureate Level)
Accountants and Auditors
3,240
Elementary School Teachers, Except Special…
2,890
Management Analysts
1,870
Secondary School Teachers, Exc. Special and…
Market Research Analysts and Marketing…
Securities and Financial Services Sales Agents
Chief Executives
Public Relations Specialists
Sales Managers
Personal Financial Advisors
Civil Engineers
Software Developers, Systems Software
Financial Managers
Kindergarten Teachers, Except Special Education
$51,430
1,240
$58,670
780
760
660
$88,070
$191,750
$59,430
600
600
580
580
From Growth
540
530
From
Replacement
510
$74,160
$53,580
1,450
Middle School Teachers, Exc. Special & Voc.…
Average Annual Salary
$66,760
$50,960
$129,490
$82,420
$83,100
$90,720
$122,960
$50,440
Source: Dept. of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Ctr., Employment Projections Program, Forecast to
2020, released Sept.2012. NOTE: Data rounded by FL Board of Governors.
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Part C
Regional Considerations in Workforce Demand
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Florida’s Workforce Regions
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Greatest Number of Annual Openings
by Workforce Region
Occupational Titles (BLS Baccalaureate Level)
Accountants and Auditors
Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education
Secondary School Teachers, Exc. Special and Voc. Ed.
Management Analysts
Middle School Teachers, Exc. Special & Voc. Education
Statewide
3,300
3,060
1,670
1,650
1,290
Jacksonville
230
220
110
130
100
Miami
420
370
200
190
130
Orlando
540
470
250
270
210
Sales Representatives, Wholesale & Mfg, Tech. & Sci.
Products
Public Relations Specialists
Recreation Workers
Graphic Designers
Compliance Officers, Exc. Safety, Agri, Constr & Transp.
Civil Engineers
Securities and Financial Services Sales Agents
Chief Executives
Sales Managers
Grand Total
1,250
820
770
750
740
.
.
.
.
15,300
90
70
.
.
.
70
110
.
70
1,180
190
120
.
130
170
.
130
.
.
2,050
130
160
.
160
.
.
.
140
130
2,470
SOURCE: Board of Governors staff analysis of Dept. of Economic Opportunity 2011-19 Occupational Projections.
NOTE: DEO 2020 projections have been rounded to the nearest tens digit.
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Part D
Gap Analysis
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CIP: Classification of Instructional Program
CIP codes provide more detailed information on degree
production at the two-digit, four-digit, and six-digit levels,
respectively.
CIP Code 11: Computer and Information Sciences and Support
Services
11.02 Computer Programming
11.0201 Computer Programming/Programmer General
11.0203 Computer Programming, Vendor/Product Certification
11.08 Computer Software and Media Applications
11.0803 Computer Graphics
11.0804 Modeling, Virtual Environments and Simulation
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DEMAND
Elements of a Demand-Supply
Gap Analysis
Employers
In Florida
Surveyed by FDEO
to determine
projected hiring
using USDOL
Standard
Occupational
Classification
codes
USDOL &
National
Crosswalk
Center
SOC codes have
been cross-walked
to related
educational CIP
codes by the
National Crosswalk
Center
US Dept. of
Education
(NCES/IPEDS)
Classification of
Instructional
Programs (CIP)
codes assigned to
educational
programs using a
taxonomy
established by the
U.S. Department
of Education
Educational
Institutions
(SUS, FCS,
ICUF, CIE)
SUPPLY
Colleges and
universities offer
degrees identified
by CIP codes
which can be
reasonably aligned
with SOC codes
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Step 1 of Supply-Demand ‘Gap’ Analysis
for Computer Occupations, SOC 15-11 (as an example)
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Associated Degree CIP Codes
SOC
Titles & Codes
1st step: Identify the 6-Digit SOC/CIP relationships for Computer Occupations
Network and
Computer
Database
Systems
Administrators
Architects and
(15-1141)
Administrators
(15-1142)
Information
Security
Computer
Analysts and
Occupations,
Web
All Other
Developers
(15-1199)
(15-1179,
15-1122)
Computer and
Information
Research
Scientists
(15-1111)
Computer
Systems
Analysts
(15-1121)
Computer
Programmers
(15-1131)
Software
Developers,
Applications
(15-1132)
Software
Developers,
Systems
Software
(15-1133)
11.0101
11.0201
11.0102
11.0102
11.0101
11.0101
11.0103
11.0101
27.0301
14.3701
11.0103
11.0202
11.0103
11.0103
11.0802
11.1001
11.0701
11.0301
27.0304
52.1301
11.0501
11.0203
11.0104
11.0104
11.1003
11.1003
11.0901
11.0401
27.0501
11.0901
11.0299
11.0201
11.0201
11.1001
11.0701
27.0502
11.0701
11.0202
11.0202
11.1002
11.1005
27.0503
11.0803
11.0701
11.0401
11.1003
26.1103
27.0599
11.0804
11.0804
11.0701
11.1005
26.1104
52.1304
15.1204
14.0901
14.0901
43.0116
30.0801
51.0709
14.0903
14.0903
30.1601
52.1201
15.1204
15.1204
30.3001
Computer
Support
Specialists
(15-1150)
26.1103
30.3101
51.2706
43.0116
CIP codes in RED are associated with more than one SOC code.
51.2706
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Step 2 of Supply-Demand ‘Gap’ Analysis
for Computer Occupations (as an example)
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2nd Step: Total Projected Demand and Determine Unduplicated Supply
6-DIGIT
SOC CODE 6-DIGIT SOC TITLE
PROJECTED
DEMAND
DUPLICATED
SUPPLY*
15-1111
Computer and Information Research Scientists
18
1,160
15-1121
Computer Systems Analysts
865
1,157
15-1131
Computer Programmers
556
468
15-1132
Software Developers, Applications
651
1,112
15-1133
Software Developers, Systems Software
537
1,118
15-1141
Database Administrators
222
652
15-1142
Network and Computer Systems Architects and Administrators
629
652
15-1179
Information Security Analysts and Web Developers (15-1122)
800
457
150
660
TOTAL DEMAND
UNDUPLICATED
SUPPLY
4,428
2,330*
15-1799
Computer Occupations, All Other (15-1199)
3-DIGIT
3-DIGIT SOC TITLE
SOC CODE
15-11
COMPUTER OCCUPATIONS (SOC 15-1100)
*Note: Due to individual CIP codes being associated with more than one SOC code, considerable duplication of degree
graduate counts occur at the six-digit SOC/CIP level. Rolling the analysis up to the three-digit SOC level provides a more
accurate Gap Analysis of Demand/Supply.
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Which Emerging Businesses Should Be a First
Priority for a Gap Analysis?
•Aviation & Aerospace
•Information Technology
•Clean Technology
Modeling, Simulation, and Training
Solar
Photonics/Optics
Biofuels
Digital Media
Storage
Software & Computer System Design
Ocean
Computer & Microelectronics
Smart Grid
Telecommunications
Advanced Materials & Products
•Life Sciences
Green Buildings
Biotech
Water
Medical Devices
Air & Environment
Pharmaceuticals
•Financial/Professional Services
Health Care
•Homeland Security/Defense
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Part E
The Longer-Term Future for Florida?
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Re-cap: Florida’s National Rankings

% of 18-24 yr. olds enrolled in college:
31st

High school to college continuation rate:
38th

% of 2010 population with a bachelor’s or higher:
37th

Bachelor’s degrees per 18-24yr population:
34th

Per capita gross domestic product:
40th

Per capita net earnings:
45th

Knowledge jobs in 2010 New Economy Index:
33rd
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Case Examples (Baccalaureate Level)
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Additional Demand Needed: Benchmarking Florida’s Workforce to Other
Indicators
SOC
2012 Base
SOC Title
Code
Employment
113021
Computer and
Information
Systems
Managers
National
High
Top 10
Big 4
Average
Performing
Occupational
Occupational
Occupational
Occupational
Density
Density
Density
Density
8,200
2,600
1,950
1,300
1,100
2,200
Accountants
81,400
60
-300
-1,700
-700
-500
Financial
Managers
18,200
3,300
2,500
1,400
1,600
2,100
132011 and Auditors
113021
Top 5
Occupational
Density)
Source: Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center. Projected Demand for Labor by Occupation (2012-2010). Occupations Requiring Bachelor’s Degree, sorted by Annual Total
Openings (Growth and Replacement) BLS Education Codes.
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Workforce Demand
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Is Florida’s Projected Workforce Demand Competitive with Other States?
2008-2018 JOB PROJECTIONS BY STATE & BY EDUCATION LEVEL
Projected Total Job Openings (New & Replacement) as a Percentage of Total Jobs in 2008
United
States
BIG10
Less than high school
38%
39%
40%
High school diploma
or equivalent
29%
28%
Some college, no degree
41%
Postsecondary
non-degree award
Educational Levels
North
Carolina
Ohio
Texas
35%
39%
34%
46%
26%
23%
28%
25%
35%
38%
39%
30%
40%
36%
46%
40%
33%
29%
30%
33%
32%
40%
29%
34%
34%
30%
27%
33%
31%
36%
36%
32%
41%
35%
32%
28%
35%
32%
45%
39%
39%
38%
48%
38%
35%
34%
36%
34%
51%
38%
35%
37%
33%
38%
34%
32%
27%
41%
32%
42%
34%
33%
34%
30%
38%
33%
30%
28%
33%
29%
40%
California Florida
Georgia
Illinois
35%
45%
38%
35%
28%
25%
33%
28%
38%
34%
34%
49%
35%
34%
34%
32%
Associate's degree
33%
32%
30%
Bachelor's degree
38%
35%
Master's degree
40%
Doctoral or professional degree
ALL LEVELS
More than 105% of BIG 10
Michigan New York
+/-5% of BIG 10
Less than 95% of BIG 10
SOURCE: Projections Central - State Occupational Projections
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Questions and Next Steps
25
1. Is the gap analysis method appropriate?
a.
b.
c.
Focus first on under-supply relative to projected demand
Use six-digit SOCs and CIPs, but aggregate at the threedigit SOC levels
Use the 24 workforce regions to customize demand
2. Should we accept the status quo for baccalaureate
degree production . . . . or consider a more
ambitious, competitive future for Florida?
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