Transcript Future Trends in Technology IS Strategic Perspective for

The Future of Technology
CIO Summit, Lansdowne, VA
April 6, 2008
Edward Granger-Happ
CIO, Save the Children
Chairman, NetHope
Executive Fellow, Tuck/Dartmouth
The Future of Technology
• Looking Back: From where have we come?
• Looking Ahead: what are the leading
indicators, principles and broad themes?
• IT Strategy and the Future: what are our
bets and hedges?
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"The art of prophecy is
very difficult-- especially
with respect to the
future." --Mark Twain
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Looking Back
"Progress, far from consisting in change, depends on
retentiveness. Those who cannot remember the past are
condemned to repeat it.” --George Santayana
The price index for computers has dropped 99.997%.
Price Indexes for Computers
1,000,000.0
100,000.0
10,000.0
1,000.0
100.0
10.0
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1.0
Mainframes
Personal Computers
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In 7 yrs, cost drops 30x and speed increases 400x
Mobile Data Cost versus Speed for 100 KB
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$ Cost for 100KB Message
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200
10
150
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6
100
Speed Observed in Kbps
250
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4
50
2
0
0
Codan HF
(1998)
Mini M
(2000)
Thuraya
SatPhone
(2001)
Iridium
SatPhone
(2002)
RBGAN
(2003)
BGAN
(2007)
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A Triad of IT Drivers
Metcalf’s Law
the network effect is exponential
Nielsen’s Law
high-end user's connection speed grows by 50% per year
Moore’s Law
CPUs double
every 18 months
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Everything Old is New
IT Pendulum between the Extremes
Left Brain (60s, 90s)
• Centralized
• Standardized
• Generalized
• Rationale
• Autocratic
• Big is Better
• In-source
• Tight
Right Brain (70s, 80s)
• Decentralized
• Customized
• Specialized
• Creative
• Democratized
• Small is Beautiful
• Outsource
• Loose
The next wave?
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User Revolutions
• Users of technology find ways to get what they
need
– Case of the Wall Street analysts and the Apple II
• Centralized and controlling technology policies
usually invite revolt among the users.
– Seeing this again with influx of consumer applications
like SKYPE, Blogger and Facebook in the workplace.
• IT managers would do well to heed Lyndon
Johnson’s advice:
– “better to have them inside the tent pissing out than
outside pissing in.”
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Looking Ahead
Some Broad Principles
Advice from a Hockey Legend
“I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.”
--Wayne Gretzky
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What’s a computer going to be?
• Verizon FIOS service
• 100 MB/sec fiber to
homes!
• This is the same speed
as the backplane of a
laptop 3 years ago!
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Don’t Bet Against the Network
By the time it will take
you to work around the
connectivity issues, the
network will be where
you need it to be.
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Who is Your Leading Indicator?
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Another Leading Indicator
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Current University Students
• I asked Dartmouth Graduate students:
– So what do you use to communicate more, IM or
Texting?
• Answer: Neither
• Neither?
• We do everything in Facebook
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It’s the Social Network not the Wired Network
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“Did You Know?” presentation, Arapahoe High School in Centennial, Colorado, United States.
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Why?
• The social network is about the way people
relate to each other, then work together
• Working together in loose-tight ways
– “Loose” geography (e.g. the NGO community)
– “Tight” purpose (e.g. disaster relief)
• Richer collaboration (e.g. NetHope)
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Who are you spending time with?
“If you’re a CIO, you need to spend a lot of
time out on the fringes of the Web because
that’s where the innovation’s taking place.
You need to spend a lot of time with people
under 25 years old.” –Gary Hamel
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For the rest of the world, this is the Internet
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Looking Ahead
The Big Themes
Top Ten Themes (for nonprofits)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
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10.
Continuing explosion of computing hardware triangle
Global communication growing geometrically
The Thomas Friedman Effect
Retirement of the current middle class
Run-the-business software (SaaS ERP)
Increasing regulatory framework
Results-oriented philanthropy
Rise in world-class, operational excellence
Rise in merger and acquisitions
Disruptive innovations
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Top Ten Themes (for nonprofits)
1.
2.
3.
4.
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6.
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10.
Continuing explosion of computing hardware triangle
Global communication growing geometrically
The Thomas Friedman Effect
Retirement of the current middle class
Run-the-business software (SaaS ERP)
Increasing regulatory framework
Results-oriented philanthropy
Rise in world-class, operational excellence
Rise in merger and acquisitions
Disruptive innovations
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4. Retirement of the current middle class
•
50% of people in technology jobs will be leaving their jobs in the
next 10 years. With this will go their knowledge &
experience. More importantly there are fewer technology people to
take their place. :
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Immediate impact will be on staffing positions (technology and
others!), with a resulting sellers market and bidding war among
organizations. This will require three responses:
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NASA has 3 times number of people over 60 versus those under 30
More than 50% of IT workers in US government are eligible to retire
by 2013
Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) Case: 40% of TVA’s staff is
eligible to retire in 5 years
moving more jobs offshore, developing our field locations to do
more headquarters jobs,
moving up food chain to do higher-level tasks in HQ (e.g.,
integration rather than development for IT), and
use of more standard, off-the-shelf software and tools.
opportunity is keep aging workers engaged, with more creative
retirement and semi-retirement plans
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8. Rise in world-class, operational excellence
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Following corporations, we can expect a rise
in world-class, operational excellence to be a
factor in nonprofit success.
We will see streamlining programs such as
Work Out, Six Sigma and Lean Thinking
applied to nonprofits
–
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Our own recent experience with business process
improvement (BPI) in Leadership Giving, and the
streamlining task force are cases in point.
However, in order to be world class in
programs, nonprofits will need to take a “good
enough” approach to IT
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Corporations will need to do the same
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10. Disruptive Innovation
• Value chain for a typical non-profit
 from donor through fundraising and programs (nonprofit products) to
beneficiary
 driven by mission
 Internet-based technologies making it possible to directly connect
donors to beneficiary projects, cutting out the typical role non-profits
play.
 Not unlike disruption caused by iTunes and MySpace in the music
industry.
• Three non-profit “dot-com’s” provide the cases to which
non-profits need to pay attention
 Global Giving, Donors Chose, and Kiva challenge nonprofit value
chain.
 Role change from providing end-to-end donor-beneficiary
experiences to unbundling programs, programs delivery, and quality
assurance.
• Social entrepreneurs, such as Mohammed Yunus, bring
business principles to social problems so that programs are
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economically sustainable
Looking Ahead
Strategy & The Future
Increasing Strategic Leverage
Leveraging IT
e.g., US Literacy
Program; Bolivia
Education Program
New
Program
Venues
1. Child-facing
Work Flow Application
Program Delivery
2. Field-facing
Program Mgmt, Supply Chain, M&E., etc.
Work Flow Applications
Revenue/Donation Delivery
3. Donor-facing
Grant Mgmt, Web Donations, Donor Mgmt
Infrastructure:
4. Supporting
“Keeping the Lights On”
Desktop PC’s, Email, Internet, Servers
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Six strategic questions ED/CEOs should ask
1. How can we ensure Convergence rather than
Divergence?
2. How do we balance innovation and foundation
building? process and work-flow applications, and
reserve some
3. What’s the technology future and what’s the past?
4. How do we meet near-term business needs while
building for the long term?
5. How do we invest enough and not too much?
6. From where will disruptive innovations come for
nonprofits come?
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Six questions for Nonprofit CIOs
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What new programs (that directly serve beneficiaries)
have you helped engender that would not have been
possible without the new use of technology?
What have you done to help close the "productivity gap"
in the way your nonprofit delivers programs and operates
as an organization?
How have you helped bridge the divide that will be
caused by disruptive innovations in the nonprofit space?
For relief organizations: How have you helped disaster
response be 50% faster with 50% greater impact?
How have you helped your organization attract and retain
knowledge workers (and IT professionals) in the face of
crisis of the baby boom generation retirement wave?
What are you doing to move commodity functions out of
your organization and contribute time, dollars and support
to the truly value-added functions of your agency?
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What if we’re wrong?
Strategy is about making bets!
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A final piece of advice
Before you make your bets:
– when there is rapid change and uncertainty,
smart organizations vary like mad.
– Run pilots, experiments and test ideas. Throw
away what doesn’t work. Take to scale that
which succeeds.
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Questions?
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Appendix
• Additional detail slides
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Worldwide cellular access is exploding
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International Internet Bandwidth Growth by Region, 2002-2005
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To Build Capacity We Need to Do Seven Things
More Effective Impact
At Greater Scale
Standards
Processes
Tools
Advocacy
Partnering
Training
Hiring
Effective, Efficient, Scalable Programs
Systems Impact
Funding Support
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