Should People Living Near Mt. Vesuvius be paid to relocate?

Kevin Rodrigues October 28 th ,2005

Location

►

Southern Italy: north

of the metropolis of Naples ►

Location: 40.8N,

14.4E

►

Elevation: 4,200 feet

(1,281 m)

From Above:

► ►

Somma Rim

, a caldera-like structure formed about 17,000 years ago from collapse of strato-volcano Right hook part of the caldera of

Phlegraean Fields

►

Mt. Vesuvius

Complex volcano  Consists of: “an extensive assemblage of spatially, temporally, and genetically related major and minor volcanic centers with their associated lave and pryoclastic flows ► Oldest dated rock is about 300,000 years old- part of Somma volcano ► Vesuvius formed after collapse of Somma (about 17,000 years ago) ► Described as stratovolcano  A large, steep-sided, symmetrical cone built of alternating layers (strata) of lava, ash, cinders, blocks, and bombs. Also called composite volcano,  Characteristically form some of Earth's grandest mountains rising as much as 8,000 feet above their bases.

 Demonstration: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/seg/hazard/stratoguide/movies/strato.m

ov

Past Eruptions

► Long history of violent eruptions ► 5960B.C and 3580 B.C Vesuvius had two eruptions that rate as largest known in Europe ► Next known earthquake was in 62 A.D

Decorative stonework damaged by 62 A.D earthquake ► 79 A.D eruption of Vesuvius was first to be described in detail, by Pliny the Younger

Past Eruptions cont’d…

► 79 A.D eruption famous for the destruction of city of Pompeii ► Three dozen eruptions since 79 A.D

► Most recent was the 1913-1944 eruption cycle ► Geologists think that above cycle:

“end of an eruptive cycle that began in 1631”

►

August 24

th

-25

th

, 79 A.D

Massive damage to cities of Pompeii (pop. 20,000) and seaside resort of Herculaneum (pop. circa 5,000) ► Estimated

3,360 people died

… number based on excavations ► Occurred in two phases:  Plinian : material ejected in a tall column, spread in the atmosphere, and fell to earth like rain ► ► Column was 20km (66,000 ft.) high Began at midday, lasting 18 hours  Pelean :material flowed down sides of volcano as avalanches of gas, dust, and rock fragments ( pryoclasts ) ► ► ► ► Lasted approx. 20 hours High temperatures, and fast-flow caused majority of the damage Buried numerous buildings, save for the roofs of high lying structures Herculaneum buried under 23m (75 ft.) of ash ► Animation of eruption sequence: http://urban.arch.virginia.edu/struct/pompeii/images/video/dobran simulation.mpeg

Images of Pompeii

Postcards from the 1913-1944 Cycle

Current Situation

► 61 years of dormancy ► Pop. Explosion from 200,000 (1944) to current 800,000 on the slopes ► 3 million live within 10-mile radius ► Continuous monitoring by seismic probes that ring volcano’s perimeter ► Vesuvius will erupt again, but monitoring is hard   Long periods of rest that end in explosive eruptions No signs of eruption since 1980

Issues

► 15-20 days of prior notice required for evacuation, but possible ► Pompeii was buried in 48hrs, and impossible to evacuate 800,000 ► Weak response as residents refuse to budge ► Naples notorious for disorganization and inertia ► Cost of relocation of residents prohibitive approx. $40 billion in direct costs  Goodwill and other indirect costs escalate cost ► Space constraints, and weak Sicilian economy ► Politics, politics, politics…

Economic Issues

► Campagna region crucial to Italian ecnomy-18% of Italian GNP ► 138,000 enterprises function in Naples, employing 591,000 people ► Tourism: region received 10.9 million tourists in 2001, 53% foreign ► 51,000 agricultural enterprises- horticultural products worth €500m (2002) ► One of Italy’s three main ports

Recommendations

► Strengthen community awareness programs on emergency measure in case of eruption ► Demolish poorly and illegally constructed structures ► Prohibit additional settlement on slopes ► Allow for increased control of region by central government ► Improve the Southern Italy economy, reducing poverty ► Establish long term (30 year) repatriation program  Involve financial incentives to leave surrounding regions  Provide housing and economic opportunities in new regions

Questions?