Transcript Slide 1
Extension of the forest ecosystem simulation model FORECAST: incorporating mountain pine beetle, fire, climate change, and wildlife Hamish Kimmins, Kim Scoular, Brad Seely, Clive Welham, Yueh-Hsin Lo, Brock Simons, Angelica Boldor Abstract References Over the last few years, the mountain pine beetle has shown once again that it is a powerful force of forest disturbance. Strategies to minimize the negative impacts of this natural disturbance must be developed and incorporated into forest management plans. However, experience has shown us that for management strategies to be robust they must be developed within an ecosystem context and projected over relevant time and spatial scales. FORECAST is a stand-level, hybrid ecosystem management simulation model that acts as the foundation for the landscape-level simulation programs PFF and LLEMS, and can be used as an ecosystem-based driver of timber supply (e.g. ATLAS/FPS) and wildlife habitat supply (e.g. SIMFOR) models. The predictive capacity of FORECAST is being increased through the addition of dynamic mountain pine beetle, fire, climate change, and wildlife habitat suitability components. Together, these additions will greatly increase the power of FORECAST as a tool for predicting possible effects of proposed forest management activities within the context of risks of natural disturbance and possible climate change. 1. Ministry of Water, Land and Air Protection. 2002. Indicators of Climate Change for British Columbia. 2. Seely, B., P. Arp, and J.P. Kimmins (1997). A forest hydrology submodel for simulating the effect of stand management and climate change on water competition and stand water stress. In Amaro, A. and M. Tome (Eds.), Conference proceedings "Empirical and process-based models for forest, tree and stand growth simulation", 21-27 September, 1997, Oeiras, Portugal. 3. Shore, T.L., and L. Safranyik. 1992. Susceptibility and risk rating systems for the mountain pine beetle in lodgepole pine. Forestry Canada. Pacific Forestry Centre, Victoria BC. 4. Shore, T.L., L. Safranyik, J.P. Lemieux. 2000. Susceptibility of lodgepole pine stands to the mountain pine beetle: testing of a rating system. Feedback Mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) Photo © John Marriott, www.wildernessprints.com (Shore et al. 2000) User-Defined Habitat Suitability/ Population Demographic Equations Coarse Woody Debris Snags Trees Species Density Age Height Canopy Depth Species Decay State DBH Density Species Decay State DBH Density User-Defined Infestation Timing Loss Prediction Model Mountain Pine Beetle Shore/Safranyik Stand Susceptibility Index (Shore and Safranyik, 1992) Plants Species Height Edible Biomass Density Basal Area of Pine >15cm dbh Total Basal Area >7.5cm dbh Age User-Defined Location Mountain Pine Beetle Stand-Level Habitat Variables Habitat Variables Wildlife FORECAST Pine marten (Martes americana) Photo © John Marriott, www.wildernessprints.com Climate Change Fuel Variables Biomass Variables Soil Structure Belowground Vegetation Structure User-Defined Precipitation Pattern Overstory Vegetation Structure User-defined Climate Data Understory Vegetation Structure Litter Bryophytes Plants Above ground Below ground Precipitation Relative Humidity Wind (speed, direction) Temperature Tree Foliage Branches Bark Roots CWD Snags ForWaDy Hydrological Model (Seely et al. 1997) User-Defined Temperature Change Actual Transpiration Transpiration Demand Moisture in LFH Layers Fire Module Fire Severity Decomposition Rate Adjustment Feedback Transpiration Deficit Index a) Duff Fire Risk Fire Impact Growth Rate Adjustment b) Figure 1 a) Change in Annual Temperature, 1895-1995 (Ministry of Water, Land and Air Protection, 2002). b) Change in seasonal precipitation, 1929-1998, % per decade (Ministry of Water, Land and Air Protection, 2002). Photo by Phil Maranda Fire