Temperature anomalies relative to 20 th Century Average Approximate pre-industrial temperature anomaly (~ -0.2°C) Approximate late 20 th century temperature anomaly (~ 0.3°C) Net temperature anomaly – late 19 th century to late 20 th century ~0.5°C http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cmb-faq/anomalies.php

Climate Change Mitigation

8 billion tons go in Fossil Fuel Burning 4 billion tons added every year 800 billion tons carbon Ocean 2 + 2 Land Biosphere (net) = 4 billion tons go out

Read: NYS Interim Climate Action plan – executive Summary http://www.nyclimatechange.us/ewebeditpro/items/O109F24046.pdf

Stabilization Wedges - Science, Vol 305, Issue 5686, 968-972, 13 Aug. 2004 (on moodle)

Historical emissions profile

Science

, Vol 305, Issue 5686, 968-972, 13 Aug. 2004

Scientific American,

Special Issue, pp. 50-57, Sept. 2006

14

Billion of Tonnes of Carbon Emitted per Year Business as usual – continue at current rate of emission growth (>800 ppm, +5°C)

7

Historical emissions Hold current emissions (2007) – (525 ppm, +3°C)

1.9



0 1955 2005 2055

Cut 2007 emissions in half over 50 years– (450 ppm, +2°C)

2105

The stabilization triangle

16

Billion of Tonnes of Carbon Emitted per Year

8

Historical emissions Stabilization

O Interim Goal

500 - 550ppm in 50 years. Steep decline beyond

0 1955 2007 2057 2105

Concept of Mitigation Wedges

Assumed 2057 carbon emission sources

16

Billion of Tonnes of Carbon Emitted per Year

8

Historical emissions

16 BtC/y Eight “wedges” Flat path O 8 BtC/y 0 1955 2007 4 additional wedges needed to cut emissions by 50% by 2057 2057 2105

What is a wedge?

An activity that reduces emissions to the atmosphere

that starts at zero in 2007

and increases linearly until it accounts for

1 BtC/yr of reduced carbon emissions in 2057

Total = 25B tonnes of carbon 50 years Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 25 GtC in its first 50 years. This is 2.5 trillion dollars at $100/tC. A “solution” to the CO 2 problem should provide at least one wedge.

1 BtC/yr

What are the options?

CO 2 Capture and Storage Nuclear Fission 16 BtC/y Fuel Switching Forests & Soils 2007 Stabilization Triangle 8 BtC/y 2057 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Renewable Electricity and Fuels

Photos courtesy of Ford Motor Co., DOE, EPA

Efficiency

Double the fuel efficiency of the world’s cars or halve miles traveled There are about 600 million cars today, with 2 billion projected for 2055 E, T, H / $

Sector s affected: E = Electricity, T =Transport, H = Heat Cost based on scale of $ to $$$ Example – 1 wedge

Produce today’s electric capacity with double today’s efficiency Average coal plant efficiency is 32% today Use best efficiency practices in all residential and commercial buildings Replacing all the world’s incandescent bulbs with CFL’s would provide 1/4 of one wedge

Fuel Switching

Substitute 1400 natural gas electric plants for an equal number of coal fired facilities E, H / $

Photo by J.C. Willett (U.S. Geological Survey).

A wedge requires an amount of natural gas equal to that used for all purposes today

Carbon Capture & Storage

Implement CCS at

• •

800 GW coal electric plants or 1600 GW natural gas electric plants or

• •

180 coal synfuels plants or 10 times today’s capacity of hydrogen plants E, T, H / $$

Graphic courtesy of Alberta Geological Survey

There are currently three storage projects that each inject 1 million tons of CO 2 per year – by 2055 need 3500.

Nuclear Electricity

Triple the world’s nuclear electricity capacity by 2055

Graphic courtesy of NRC

The rate of installation required for a wedge from electricity is equal to the global rate of nuclear expansion from 1975-1990.

E/ $$

Wind Electricity

Install 1 million 2 MW windmills to replace coal-based electricity, OR Use 2 million windmills to produce hydrogen fuel E, T, H / $-$$

Photo courtesy of DOE

A wedge worth of wind electricity will require increasing current capacity by a factor of 30

Solar Electricity

Install 20,000 square kilometers for dedicated use by 2054

Photos courtesy of DOE Photovoltaics Program

A wedge of solar electricity would mean increasing current capacity 700 times E / $$$

Biofuels

Scale up current global ethanol production by 30 times

Photo courtesy of NREL

Using current practices, one wedge requires planting an area the size of India with biofuels crops T, H / $$

Natural Sinks

B / $ Eliminate tropical deforestation OR Plant new forests over an area the size of the continental U.S.

OR Use conservation tillage on all cropland (1600 Mha) Conservation tillage is currently practiced on less than 10% of global cropland

Photos courtesy of NREL, SUNY Stonybrook, United Nations FAO

Wedges Available

Choosing Appropriate Wedges

• Review Strategies available (next two slides) • You may use a strategy more than once • Use only whole numbers of wedges • You may use a maximum of – 6 electricity wedges (E) – 5 transportation wedges(T) – 5 heat or direct fuel use wedges (H) • Cost and impacts must be considered. Each wedge should be viewed in terms of both technical and political viability. • See video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-wcDHZ7Z-hQ

• • • •

NYS Plans

Gov. Paterson Executive Order 24 (Aug. 2009) ( http://www.state.ny.us/governor/executive_orders/exeorders/eo_24.html

) – Reduce emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases by 80 percent from 1990 levels, by the year 2050 ("80 by 50“) – Improve resilience to climate change in all the state's communities http://www.dec.ny.gov/energy/44992.html

– – Establish NYS Climate Action Council http://www.nyclimatechange.us/index.cfm

Develop NYS Climate Action plan (Jan. 2010) Renewable Portfolio Standard December 2009, (30 x 15) – proportion of renewable electricity consumed in NYS to 30 percent by 2015 NYSDEC – Climate Smart Communities ( http://www.dec.ny.gov/energy/50845.html

) Part of RGGI – – – a ten-state cooperative - reduce GHG emissions from electric power plants cap and trade system. – first market-based, mandatory program in the nation. http://www.dec.ny.gov/energy/rggi.html

NYS - Basic strategies for reducing emissions

• • • • 80x50 emissions target of 50 MMT CO2e Constraint: Cutting GHG emissions could have real-world consequences if low-carbon or no-carbon energy sources don’t adequately replace fossil sources. four key strategies to reduce GHG emissions: – – energy conservation through demand reduction and energy efficiency. Increased reliance on local, point-of-use renewable energy technologies such as solar is the second strategy. – – Reducing combustion of fossil fuels ( 87% of current GHG emissions) fuel switching where combustion must still be used Three Scenarios

NYS Vision of 2050

http://www.nyclimatechange.us/ewebeditpro/items/O109F22816.pdf

http://www.nyclimatechange.us/InterimReport.cfm

Sector Transporta tion

Light Duty Vehicles (cars)

Yellow

~51.3 MMT CO2e Smart growth VMT ↓ 10% CV reaches 37 mpg; (30%) HEV miles at 50mpg (30%) PHEV (40%) 50% trucks switch to rail

High Duty Vehicles (trucks)

Electricity

Efficiency Electricity Generation

~21 MMT CO2e 25% improvement *Residential * Commercial 10% - Industrial Minimize combustion; remaining switches to IGCC, NGCC w/ CCS Max hydro, wind No new nuclear 115 MMT CO 2 eq/y

Deep Blue

~15 MMT CO2e Maximize hydro 2 new nuclear plants 30% from renewables (utility-scale solar, wind) 40% NGCC and CCS <50 MMT CO 2 eq/y

Ultraviolet

~20 MMT CO2e Smart growth – VMT ↓ 40% 100% FCV @65 mpg equiv. (hydrogen (nuclear-based)) Smart growth -VMT ↓40% EV: 95% Others: 50 mpg - E85/BD 50% trucks switch to rail; 40% of balance - biodiesel 50% trucks switch to rail ~13 MMT CO2e ~10 MMT CO2e efficiency gains as in Yellow efficiency gains as in Yellow Maximize hydro Max wind 15 new nuclear plants 35% from renewables (utility scale solar, wind) 17% from NGCC and CCS 35%-40% residential from local solar <50 MMT CO 2 eq/y

Take Home Messages

• In order to avoid a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 , we need to rapidly deploy low-carbon energy technologies and/or enhance natural sinks • We already have an adequate portfolio of technologies to make large cuts in emissions • No one technology can do the whole job – a variety of strategies will need to be used to stay on a path that avoids a CO 2 doubling • Every “wedge” has associated impacts and costs

EFFICIENCY AND CONSERVATION

• • • • Improve fuel economy of the two billion cars expected on the road by 2057 to 60 mpg from 30 mpg.

Reduce miles traveled annually per car from 10,000 to 5,000.

Increase efficiency in heating, cooling, lighting, and appliances by 25 percent.

Improve coal-fired power plant efficiency to 60 percent from 40percent.

http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2007/10/carbon-crisis/img/stabilization_wedges.pdf

CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE

• • • Introduce systems to capture CO 2 and store it underground at 800 large coal-fired plants or 1,600 natural-gas-fired plants.

Use capture systems at coal derived hydrogen plants producing fuel for a billion cars.

Use capture systems in coal derived synthetic fuel plants producing 30 million barrels a day.

Use only LOW-CARBON FUELS

• • Replace 1,400 large coal-fired power plants with natural-gas-fired plants.

Displace coal by increasing production of nuclear power to three times today’s capacity.

RENEWABLES AND BIOSTORAGE

• • • • • • Increase wind-generated power to 25 times current capacity.

Increase solar power to 700 times current capacity.

Increase wind power to 50 times current capacity to make hydrogen for fuel-cell cars.

Increase ethanol biofuel production to 50 times current capacity. About one-sixth of the world’s cropland would be needed.

Stop all deforestation.

Expand conservation tillage to all cropland (normal plowing releases carbon by speeding decomposition of organic matter).