Climate Resilience in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Societies

Workshop on Climate Sceince Needed to Support Robust Adaptation Decisions Georgia Tech, Atlanta, 6th February 2014 Janani Vivekananda Manager, Environment, Climate Change and Security Programme International Alert

1. Understanding the Linkages between Climate Change and Security

2. Approaches to the addressing links between climate, resilience and peace 3. Conclusion and Discussion

Elements of Vulnerability Exposure

Rate and variation of climate change

Vulnerability Sensitivity

Availability and importance of the affected resource

Adaptive Capacity

Generic Impact specific Depend on climate change impacts and environment Depends on governance and stability Adapted from IPCC 2007

Adaptation and Resilience

• • Adaptation to climate change “ Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities” (IPCC 2007:896) focuses on managing impacts of specific climate effects Resilience Adaptation • Resilience “ Ability of countries, communities, and households to anticipate, adapt to, and/or recover from the effects of potentially hazardous occurrences (climate change, natural disasters, economic instability, conflict) in a manner that protects livelihoods, accelerates and sustains recovery, and supports economic and social development” (IAWG-R, 2013)

Wars in the 21 st century

That was the good news

• Decline in annual incidence of armed conflict has ended – not clear if it has reversed: 30 in 2010 --- 37 in 2011 --- 32 in 2012 • In many conflicts, violence has only been suppressed Risk of recidivism • Peace processes usually need international support May get harder to initiate and sustain • And there are other dimensions of violence

Pressures - population trends

Positive And Negative Cycle 5/16

Climate and Environmental Change Fragility Stability decrease increases Vulnerability Resilience Human Insecurity* Human Security Violent Conflict Peace * Human security = “freedom from the risk of loss or damage to a thing that is important to survival and well being” (Barnett et al 2010. p4)

International Alert‘s Rationale Behind Working on Climate Change

• If climate change is a ‘

risk multiplier

’ which interacts with pre existing social, economic and political risks, making peace and stability harder to achieve, • then addressing the pre-existing root causes of vulnerability will help build resilience to climate change and contribute to stability

Local Perspectives and Narratives – understanding complexity

N. Shresta/International Alert

Local Perspectives and Narratives - maladaptation

N. Shresta/International Alert

N. Shresta/International Alert

1. Understanding the Linkages between Climate Change and Security

2. Approaches to the addressing links between climate, resilience and peace

3. Conclusion and Discussion

Approaches to the climate-resilience-peace nexus 11/16

•

Focus on Resilience

•

Rethinking development

•

Getting the institutions right

•

Face the challenges of migration

•

Peace positive low-carbon economy

Example of silo-ed aid approaches Question 1:

The call states that “

while insecurity and violence affect many cities in [Latin America], reducing exposure to those hazards is outside the scope of this [call]. Activities that respond to those affected by complex emergencies will not be considered under this [call]

”? Given the

post-conflict context of the region,

would it be acceptable to

propose an approach

that will ensure that interventions will “

do no harm” in

the given urban setting, and

build resilience holistically to all hazards in those contexts, including

(but not exclusively)

violence and insecurity

?

Response to Question 1:

[The donor] intends that projects funded focus on reducing the risks associated with natural hazards,

rather than human-made threats

. Proposed activities must clearly reflect this emphasis.

1. Understanding the Linkages between Climate Change and Security 2. Approaches to the addressing links between climate, resilience and peace

3. Conclusion and Discussion

Positive And Negative Cycle

Climate and Environmental Change

Climate Change Funding

Fragility Stability decrease s increases Vulnerability Resilience

Research, Policy and

• • •

Practice Understanding Complexity Adjusting Funding Changing Institutions

Human Insecurity Human Security Violent Conflict Peace

Conclusions

1. Focus of qualitative literature = identifying correlations and arguing causality does not help determine how to promote resilience in FCAS. Need more

multivariate analyses

to

address multivariate, complex risks

.

2. Most models are at a

resolution

which offer limited value to development programmers at national and

subnational

level.

3. Research required for policy and programming requires a

nuanced understanding power, politics and political economy of context

.

4. In FCAS, we need to understand links between fragility, vulnerability, and security in order to build

resilient communities

to cope with variability.

5.

Implementation

will still be a challenge, but better understanding of

complexity

will at least put policy and practice on the right track.

Thank You for Your Attention Janani Vivekananda Manager – Climate Change and Security International Alert, London [email protected]

+44 207 627 6823 www.international-alert.org