Transcript Nessun titolo diapositiva

MACROECONOMIC
FORECASTS AND THE
INDUSTRIAL SECTORS’
COMPETITIVENESS
Rome June 19, 2002
Chart 1 – INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(indexes: 1990=100)
150
140
130
120
United States
Euro area
Italy
110
100
90
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Source: Istat,Thompson Financial, Csc “rapid” survey.
Chart 2 - ITALY: BUSINESS CONFIDENCE
(Seasonally adjusted data)
110
35
Confidence climate (left scale)
105
30
3-month production expectations
25
100
20
95
15
10
90
5
85
0
80
1995
Source: Isae.
-5
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Chart 3 – UNITED STATES: INVENTORY VARIATION
(as a % of GDP)
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Source: Thompson Financial.
Chart 4 – UNITED STATES: EXTERNAL DEFICIT
(as a % of GDP)
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
Chart. 5 – REAL EXCHANGE RATES (*)
(indexes: 1990=100)
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
140
United States
120
Euro Area
100
80
60
1990
Source: Thomson Financial.
1991
1992
1993
1994
(*) Deflated with labor cost.
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Chart 6 - JAPAN: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(indexes: January 1990=100)
Chart 7 – MOODY’S RATING
110
Countries
105
100
95
90
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
Source: Thomson Financial.
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Rating
Canada
Aaa
Singapore
Aaa
Sw itzerland
Aaa
United States
Aaa
Austria
Aaa
Finland
Aaa
France
Aaa
Germany
Aaa
Ireland
Aaa
Luxemburg
Aaa
Netherlands
Aaa
Spain
Aaa
United Kingdom
Aaa
Sw eden
Aaa
Denmark
Aaa
Belgium
Aa1
Portugal
Aa2
Italy
Aa2
Czech Republic
A1
Greece
A2
Slovenia
A2
Japan
A2
Hong Kong
A3
South Korea
A3
Chart 8 – FUTURES ON 3-MONTH RATES
7
June 2002
6
Euro area
5
4
3
2
United States
1
2001
2002
2003
4.5
Chart 9 – INFLATION IN THE UNITED STATES AND IN THE
EURO AREA
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
Source: Thomson Financial, Eurostat.
United States
Euro area
0.5
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Chart 10 – PRODUCER PRICES IN THE EURO AREA
(y-o-y % changes)
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
1999
2000
2001
2002
1
Chart 11- INFLATION RATE DIFFERENTIAL:
ITALY-EURO AREA
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
Source: Eurostat.
-0.6
1999
2000
2001
2002
Chart 12 – CURRENT EXPENDITURE NET OF INTEREST
PAYMENTS IN REAL TERMS
(Deflated with consumer prices)
5
4
Base scenario
3
2
1
B
0
C
-1
A
-2
-3
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Alternative A: balanced budget in 2003, fiscal reform.
Alternative B: A+ higher GDP growth.
Alternative C: B + emergence of underground economy.
Source: Istat, Csc.
Chart 13 – EMPLOYMENT IN SELECTED EURO AREA
COUNTRIES
(Indexes: 1995=100)
130
125
Germany
Spain
120
France
Italy
115
110
105
100
95
1995
1996
1997
Source: Eurostat, Istat.
1998
1999
2000
2001
Chart 14 FIXED CAPITAL PER EMPLOYEE ( 1970=100 ) AND
LABOR MARKET RIGIDITIES
Labor market rigidities
Chart 15
Rates of growth of productivity and per capita GDP
(1992-2000 average)
Productivity
Source: Ocse
per capita GDP (*)
Italy
2.1
1.4
Germany
1.8
1.3
France
1.4
1.5
Spain
1.1
2.4
United Kingdom
2.2
2.3
United States
1.7
2.7
Chart 16 –
80
SHARE OF EMPLOYMENT IN MANUFACTURING
FIRMS WITH LESS THAN 100 EMPLOYEES
70
60
Seventies
50
Nineties
40
30
20
10
Chart 17
0
Italy
France
Germany
Source: National censuses.
United
Kingdom
United
States
THE ITALIAN FIRMS IN THE FORTUNE 500 LIST
Position
Company
Revenues
(Billions of dollars)
46
Assicurazioni Generali
53.333
47
Fiat
53.190
69
Eni
45.139
156
Olivetti
27.832
196
Enel
23.142
206
IntesaBci
22.512
345
UniCredito Italiano
14.776
392
Montedison
13.216
Italy's total
253.140
Italy's share
1,8%
Source: Fortune (2001).
Chart 18 - PERCENTAGE OF SELF EMPLOYED WORKERS OVER THE
TOTAL NUMBER OF WORKERS IN NON-AGRICULTURAL SECTORS
30
25
20
France
Italy
United Kingdom
15
Germany
Japan
United States
Chart 19
10
Labor market rigidities and percentage of nonagricultural self employed workers in 1998
% of self employed over the
total
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
1967
1965
5
35.0
Corea
30.0
25.0
Belgio
20.0
15.0
10.0
Canada
Regno Unito
5.0
Stati Uniti
Italia
Spagna
Portogallo
Irlanda
Giappone
Olanda Germania
Finlandia
Svezia
Austria Francia
Danimarca
Norvegia
0.0
0
Source: Ocse.
Grecia
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Labor market rigidities
3
3.5
4
Chart 20 – NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES NOT COVERED BY
ARTICLE 18 OF THE WORKERS’ STATUTE (Year 2000)
(full-time equivalent units)
1) Total employees
(no. of persons)
23,494,600
23,129,200
3,538,000
3,404,270
2,960,000
2,830,000
578,000
574,270
6,470,000
5,470,630
Not covered by article 18:
Workers in the underground economy
wage earners
self employed
3) Regular self-employed workers
4) Wage earners in firms with less than 15 employees(a)
2,900,000
5) Term-contract employees(a)
1,530,000
6) Others
7) Total (=2+3+4+5+6)
45,400
14,483,400
13,350,300
8) As a % of total employment (=7:1*100)
62%
58%
9) Public employees
3,536,800
10) Wage earners in firms with more than 15 employees(a)
5,474,400
(a)
Data refer only to the number of persons since data on full-time equivalent units are not available.
Source: Istat, National accounts; Istat, labor force survey; Istat, the 1996 intermediate census of industry and
services; Istat, survey of non-profit institutions
Chart 21 – PRODUCTION IN MANUFACTURING SECTORS
(Indexes: 1995=100, constant prices)
Electronics, office and computing equipment
137.9
3.8
121.1
2.9
Rubber and plastic products
120.2
3.6
Paper products, printing and publishing
120.0
6.0
Professional goods
118.5
1.6
Non electrical machinery
115.0
7.9
Chemicals, drugs and medicines
114.7
8.1
Radio, Tv and communication equipment
113.7
3.1
Metal products
113.3
10.7
Glass and ceramics
111.4
1.9
Electrical machinery
110.1
4.3
Wood products, furniture and fixtures
109.2
5.2
Food and beverages
108.5
10.7
Shipbuilding, aircraft, railroad equipment and cycles
107.6
2.2
Motor vehicles
107.3
5.8
Petroleum refineries and products
106.4
1.5
Wearing apparel
106.2
4.4
Iron, steel and non ferrous metals
105.5
5.3
Textiles
101.2
5.4
Leather products and footwear
87.2
4.0
Others manufacturing
85.1
1.8
119.0
100.0
Primary building materials
Total manufacturing
Source: CSC calculations based on Asi data.
Chart 22 – SHARE OF WORLD PATENTS IN
SELECTED INDUSTRIES
1990-2000
Chemical
Electronic
Mechanical
Total
Italy
2.9
2.7
6.7
3.4
France
7.4
8.5
9.8
7.6
Germany
19.9
16.1
31.3
19.4
United States
42.3
36.5
27.6
28.9
Japan
19.7
31.5
18.2
18.3
7.5
4.4
6.2
5.0
United Kingdom
Source: Cespri-Epo database.
MACROECONOMIC
FORECASTS AND THE
INDUSTRIAL SECTORS’
COMPETITIVENESS
Rome June 19, 2002