Transcript Slide 1
Country Report MUHAMMAD RIAZ PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT KARACHI e-mail: [email protected] • • BISHAM QILA DARBAND HARIPUR SATELLITE IMAGE OF TARBELA TARBELA RESERVOIR • Catchment area above Tarbela 65500 Sq Miles (169600 Sq Km) • Annual Average Inflow at Tarbela 64 MAF • Area of Lake 100 Sq. Miles (260 Sq. KM) • Maximum Depth (Present) 334 Ft FLOOD GENERATING SYSTEMS WEATHER SYSTEMS 1 Westerly wave 2 Southwest Monsoon River Floods Flash Floods Urban Floods • MONSOON LOW PRESSURE AREAS • MONSOON DEPRESSIONS • CYCLONES INTRODUCTION • Climate Change is burning issue not at National but also at International level. Its Scope is so wider that nothing left without coming in the grip of its impacts, either it may be human, livestock or crops (Biodiversity). • All these are leading happy and healthy life in a specific climate ,otherwise adverse effects if it is changed Average Annual Rainfall (1950-1979) 62° E 64° E 66° E 68° E 70° E 72° E 74° E Annual Precipitation (mm) 36° N Hunza Gupis NORMAL (1950-79) Chitral Drosh Dir CHINA Gilgit Chilas Bunji Kalam Astore 36° N Skardu Babusar Patan Hill Station Saidu SharifMalam Jaba Plain Station 34° N Mianwali Mundi B.D. Jouharabad Noorpurthal Sargodha D.I.Khan Jhang Faisalabad Zhob Rafiqui Quetta 30° N Barkhan 34° N Multan D.G.Khan Sibi 1200 Sialkot 1000 32° N Lahore 600 500 Bahawalnagar 30° N 400 Bhawalpur 300 Khanpur R.Y.Khan 250 Jacobabad 28° N Khuzdar I R A N 28° N SukkarRohri Larkana Moenjodaro Panjgur 100 Padidan Dadu 50 Nawabshah Lasbella Jiwani Gwadar 26° N Pasni Mir Pur Khas Chhor Hyderabad Ormara ARABIAN SEA Karachi Thatta Badin Mithi 24° N 24° N 62° E 64° E 66° E 68° E 200 150 Turbat 26° N 900 800 Sahiwal Okara Kalat Dalbandin 1600 1400 Mangala Jhelum Bannu 32° N 1800 Balakot Kakul GhariMuzaffarabad Dupatta PeshawarRisalpur Kamra Murree Rawalakot Cherat Islamabad Kohat Dhamial Kotli Parachinar Nokkundi 76° E 70° E 72° E 74° E 76° E 0 Average Annual Rainfall (1980-2009) 62° E 64° E 66° E 68° E 70° E 72° E 74° E Annual Precipitation (mm) 36° N Hunza Gupis NORMAL (1980-2009) Chitral Drosh Dir CHINA Gilgit Chilas Bunji Kalam Astore Babusar Patan Hill Station 36° N Skardu Saidu SharifMalam Jaba Plain Station 34° N Mianwali Mundi B.D. Jouharabad Noorpurthal Sargodha D.I.Khan Jhang Faisalabad Zhob Rafiqui Quetta 30° N Barkhan 34° N 1200 Sialkot 32° N 800 Lahore 600 Sahiwal Okara Bahawalnagar 30° N Bhawalpur 300 250 Khanpur R.Y.Khan Khuzdar I R A N 200 28° N Sukkar Rohri Larkana Moenjodaro Panjgur 150 100 Padidan Dadu 50 Nawabshah Lasbella Turbat 26° N Jiwani Gwadar 26° N Pasni Mir Pur Khas Chhor Hyderabad Ormara ARABIAN SEA Karachi Thatta Badin Mithi 24° N 24° N 62° E 64° E 400 Kalat Dalbandin Jacobabad 28° N 1000 500 Multan D.G.Khan Sibi 1600 1400 Mangala Jhelum Bannu 32° N 1800 Balakot Kakul GhariMuzaffarabad Dupatta PeshawarRisalpur Kamra Murree Rawalakot Cherat Islamabad Kohat Dhamial Kotli Parachinar Nokkundi 76° E 66° E 68° E 70° E 72° E 74° E 76° E 0 Average Annual Rainfall (1980-2009) minus (1950-1979) 62° E 64° E 66° E 68° E 70° E 72° E 74° E Annual Precipitation (mm) 36° N 76° E Hunza Gupis Departure (1980-09) minus (1950-79) Chitral Drosh Kalam Dir Astore 36° N Skardu Babusar Patan Hill Station CHINA Gilgit Chilas Bunji Saidu SharifMalam Jaba Plain Station 34° N Balakot Kakul GhariMuzaffarabad Dupatta PeshawarRisalpur Kamra Murree Rawalakot Cherat Islamabad Kohat Dhamial Kotli Parachinar 100 Mangala Jhelum Bannu Mianwali Mundi B.D. Jouharabad Noorpurthal Sargodha D.I.Khan 32° N 120 34° N Jhang Faisalabad Zhob Rafiqui 80 Sialkot 32° N 60 Lahore 40 Sahiwal Okara 20 Quetta 30° N Barkhan Multan D.G.Khan Sibi 30° N Khanpur R.Y.Khan -40 Jacobabad 28° N Khuzdar I R A N 28° N SukkarRohri Larkana Moenjodaro Panjgur -60 -80 Padidan Dadu Nawabshah Lasbella Turbat 26° N Jiwani Gwadar 26° N Pasni Mir Pur Khas Chhor Hyderabad Ormara ARABIAN SEA Karachi Thatta Badin Mithi 24° N 64° E 66° E 68° E -100 -120 24° N 62° E 0 -20 Kalat Dalbandin Nokkundi Bahawalnagar Bhawalpur 70° E 72° E 74° E 76° E Coastal Area Winter Rainfall 350 y = -0,9582x + 100,42 300 y = 0,0224x + 6,9282 y = -0,0853x + 26,739 y = -0,0471x + 57,064 200 150 100 50 Badin Jiwani Karachi Pasni 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 1973 1971 1969 1967 1965 1963 1961 1959 1957 1955 1953 0 1951 mm 250 Coastal Area MONSOON Rainfall 1000 900 800 y = -1,0338x + 226,96 y = -1,3322x + 203,79 y = -0,1882x + 15,802 y = -0,1941x + 22,865 700 500 400 300 200 100 Badin Jiwani Karachi Pasni 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 1973 1971 1969 1967 1965 1963 1961 1959 1957 1955 1953 0 1951 mm 600 Coastal Area ANNUAL Rainfall 1000 900 y = -0,551x + 245,1 y = -1,3275x + 251,84 y = -0,1424x + 114,54 y = -1,1776x + 157,89 800 700 500 400 300 200 100 Badin Jiwani Karachi Pasni 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 1973 1971 1969 1967 1965 1963 1961 1959 1957 1955 1953 0 1951 mm 600 Winter Rainfall y = -0,2183x + 445,66 y = -0,1698x + 30,624 y = 0,1561x + 90,095 1200 1000 y = 0,8419x + 366,86 600 400 200 0 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 mm 800 GDupatta Gilgit Muzffarabad Skardu Winter Rainfall 700 y = -1,1595x + 264,9y = 0,5209x + 199,96y = -0,2898x + 68,219 y = -0,6945x + 196,39 600 500 mm 400 300 200 100 0 Astore Cherat Chilas Chitral Monsoon Rainfall 1200 y = -4,5977x + 777,53 y = -1,9383x + 752,31 y = 0,1419x + 28,71 y = 0,2038x + 31,789 1000 mm 800 600 400 200 0 GDupatta Gilgit Muzffarabad Skardu Monsoon Rainfall 700 y = 0,2014x + 17,357 600 500 y = 0,2017x + 64,272 y = 0,5056x + 17,278y = -0,9679x + 267,97 mm 400 300 200 100 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 0 Astore Cherat Chilas Chitral Annual Rainfall 1800 y = -1,4853x + 550,37 y = -3,4506x + 754,46 1600 y = 0,3805x + 182,13 1400 y = 1,077x + 433,36 1200 mm 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Astore Cherat Chilas Chitral Annual Rainfall y = -8,2338x + 1846,4 2500 y = -1,3606x + 1565,4 y = 0,4731x + 121,57 y = 0,5711x + 211,38 2000 mm 1500 1000 500 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 0 GDupatta Gilgit Muzffarabad Skardu 14 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 °C Annual Maximum Temperature (1955-2009) 26 24 22 y = 0,0423x + 21,902 y = 0,0294x + 23,007 20 y = 0,0479x + 17,077 Chitral Gilgit Skardu y = 0,0147x + 15,145 18 16 Astore 10 0 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 °C Annual Minimum Temperature (1955-2009) 12 y = -0,0164x + 9,1311 y = -0,0108x + 5,2402 y = 0,0123x + 3,6335 y = -0,0277x + 8,6032 8 6 4 2 Chitral Gilgit Skardu Astore Temperature Range 18 y = 0,0059x + 8,2107 16 y = -0,0168x + 12,658 y = 0,0228x + 13,228 y = 0,0574x + 12,786 °C 14 12 10 8 6 Cherat Chilas Chitral Muzaffarabad Temperature Range 20 y = 0,0571x + 14,382 y = 0,0031x + 11,501 19 y = 0,0354x + 12,347 y = 0,0578x + 11,9 18 17 °C 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 G-Dupatta Gilgit Skardu Astore Annual Maximum Temperature y 36 = -0,0287x + 34,517 35 y = 0,0192x + 31,37 y = 0,0143x + 29,676 y = 0,0124x + 30,686 34 32 31 30 29 28 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 °C 33 Badin Jiwani Karachi Pasni Annual Minimum Temperature 24 y = 0,0255x + 19,984 y = -0,0069x + 21,369 y23 = 0,0185x + 19,497 y = 0,005x + 20,058 21 20 19 18 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 °C 22 Badin Jiwani Karachi Pasni Annual Temperature Ranges 18 y = -0,0435x + 14,926 16 y = -0,0032x + 11,356 y = 0,0203x + 8,3261 y = 0,011x + 10,623 12 10 8 6 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 °C 14 Badin Jiwani Karachi Pasni 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 knots BADIN Annual Wind Speed (1951-2009) 12 10 8 y = 0,0387x + 5,1868 R² = 0,1158 6 4 2 y = 0,0162x + 3,5443 R² = 0,0437 0 morning Tendency of Rainfall (Northern Area) Astore Cherat Chelas Chitral G Dupatta Gilgit 2 mm per annum 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 Winter Monsoon Annual M Abad Skardu Tendency of Rainfall (Coastal Area) Badin Jiwani Karachi 0,2 mm per annum 0 -0,2 -0,4 -0,6 -0,8 -1 -1,2 -1,4 Winter Monsoon Annual Pasni Monthly Frequency of Tropical Cyclones & Depression over Arabian Sea (1891-2010) 50 Frequency 40 30 20 10 0 Jan -10 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual Frequency of Tropical Cyclones & Depression over Arabian Sea (1891-2010) 6 5 3 2 1 Ann Annl Trend 5 years moving ave. 11 years moving ave. 2005 1999 1993 1987 1981 1975 1969 1963 1957 1951 1945 1939 1933 1927 1921 1915 1909 1903 1897 0 1891 Frequency 4 DEPRESSION/LOWS (1980-2010) 12 y = -0,0258x + 5,1871 10 Numbers 8 y = 0,0274x + 1,4968 6 4 2 0 Total Formed Crossed Pakistan 120 100 MONSOON RAINFALL (1980-2010)/MONSOON y = -0,2143x + 10,613 DEPRESSIONS 8 7 60 6 40 5 20 4 0 -20 3 -40 2 -60 1 -80 -100 0 Mosoon_%Dep_Rain Crossed Pakistan Линейная (Mosoon_%Dep_Rain) No of Dep. % Departure 80 NO SIGNIFICANT Change due to Global Warming RIVER INDUS AT TARBELA Average Inflow (CUSECS) 110000 Ave Inflow Ave Discharge Inflow y = 73,021x + 81833 90000 80000 Discharge 70000 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 60000 1980 INFLOW (CUSECS) 100000 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 INFLOW (Cusecs) RIVER JHELUM AT MANGLA Annual Average INFLOW (Cusecs) (1967 - 2010) 50000 Average Discharge years Линейная (Average Discharge) 40000 y = -35,8x + 31645 30000 20000 10000 0 Kangra 1905, M ~8 Kashmir 2005, M7.6 Kashmir Earthquake 2005: Chaman, 1892 Consequences & Causes Quetta 1935, M7.5 Himalayan Seismic Zone ChamanHindukush Seismic Zone Mach 1931, M7.4 & Seismic Himalayan Zone M. Asif Khan Ziarat/Pishin 2009,M6.4 National Centre of Excellence in Geology Sulaiman-Kirthar Seismic Zone University of Peshawar Urmara 1945, M8.3 Makran Seismic Zone Kuchch-Gujerat Seismic Zone Bhuj 2001 M7.6; Allah Band 1819 M 7.8 Stakeholders Federal Flood Commission (FFC) Provincial Irrigation and Drainage Authority (PIDA) National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) Water And Power Development Authority (WAPDA) Provincial Relief Organization Pakistan Army Pakistan Commissioner for Indus Waters (PCIW) Emergency Relief Cell (ERC) CONCLUSION • Rainfall Analysis shows decadal increase over the year from 19612009,drought condition also prevailed at intervals.( The increase is 1.2mm/year) • The increased rainfall has shifted Northern Areas of the country . • Changes in precipitation are not as significant over the southwestern parts of the country . • Annual Maximum Temperature is increasing from0.1 to 0.4c/decad while minimum Temperature is decreasing from 0.1-0.2c/decad in the Northern Areas • Diurnal variation in temperature in the Northern areas is increasing .Thus the moister holding capacity is increasing resulting heavy downpour. • Annual Maximum and minimum temperatures of Coastal Areas are increasing from 0.12-0.19 and 0.05-0.2 °C per decade respectively