Transcript Slide 1
Findings from two
European-led research
programmes
Part 2: Getting the politics right for
economic transformation in Africa
David Booth, Africa Power and Politics,
ODI, London
Johns Hopkins – SAIS, Washington DC,
12 March 2012
www.institutions-africa.org
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Overview
The problem 1: economic growth and economic transformation in
Africa
The problem 2: what about the politics?
What do we know about rent-seeking and transformation in
Africa?
Conclusions
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The problem 1: Not just economic growth …
Economic headlines of 2010: Africa on the move
McKinsey report “Lions on the Move”: accelerating growth during 2000s;
not just a resource boom
Steven Radelet CGA book: steady economic growth and democratisation
since mid-1990s in 17 “cheetah” countries
Economic headlines of 2011: not just growth but …
Justin
Lin
K.Y.
Amoako
UN
ECA
… economic transformation
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The challenge of economic transformation
Structural change (diversification of production and exports)
Productivity breakthroughs in smallholder agriculture (esp. Tracking
Development)
Acquisition of skills and technological capabilities by firms +
anticipation of comparative advantages (especially Lin)
And, therefore, an active state, to
tackle major infrastructure obstacles (transport, power, water)
free-up markets for inputs and outputs
improve health, education and skills
facilitate and force firms to grow and upgrade
But …
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The problem 2: What about the politics?
A 30-year conventional wisdom about Africa has ruled out successful
state interventionism:
Inevitability of political corruption and managerial inefficiency – “rent
seeking”, “neopatrimonialism”
“First get good governance” – so that states are accountable to citizens
That means better public financial management, multi-party elections and
… democratic decentralization
Global hype around the Arab Spring – renewal of public belief in
democratization as magic bullet
The trouble is:
Asian experience does not support the Good Governance orthodoxy or
popular faith in democracy as the solution to all problems …
… nor does African experience
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What do we know about “rent seeking” and transformation
in Africa?
In Africa as in Asia, the formula that seems to work
for transformation combines
A mechanism enabling centralization of control of
economic rents and their deployment with a view to the
(relatively) long term
Political protection for competent, socially embedded,
sector bureaucracies
Recent theory tells us why this should be the case
Historically, this “developmental patrimonialism” has
only happened under two particular conditions …
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Rarely, if ever, have developmental regimes emerged from
multi-party electoral competition … why?
In history, elections and liberal-democratic
institutions have very different effects in different
socio-economic settings
Until societies have substantial organizational
capacity, so that promises to deliver public goods are
realistic and credible …
… it will always be cost effective to win elections with
bold gestures plus distribution of private rewards
(and punishments) to voters and clients
The short-termism that elections generate is worse,
and more damaging for development, when
countries are divided into big ethnic blocs, and the
Constitution says “winner takes all”
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Conclusions
Developmental patrimonialism is not a new “model”
Questions about origins and durability
In Africa, policies still weak on smallholder transformation
The challenge is to make democracy safe for development:
Ways of blunting competitive clientelism, short-termism and “winner takes
all”
Is there a role for the international community in this? If we can be:
Humble about our knowledge of “what works”
Aware that in history all good things don’t go together
Resistant to global bandwagons
Engaged enough to undertake painstaking analysis of the political economy
of possible change, country by country
Thank you!
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Africa
power and
politics
Developmental regimes in Africa brings together
Tracking Development, led by the ASC & KITLV interinstitutes of Leiden University, Netherlands and Africa
Power and Politics, led by the Overseas Development
Institute, London. The project is supported by the
Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs
www.institutions-africa.org