Transcript Parkin-Bade Chapter 24

Ch. 14: Fiscal Policy
• Federal budget process and recent history of outlays, tax
revenues, deficits, and debts
• Supply-Side Economics
• Controversies on effects of deficits on investment,
saving, and economic growth
• Redistribution of benefits and costs across generations
• Fiscal policy as a stabilization tool
Federal government spending for 2009 (ending
in September 2009) is projected to be
approximately
a)
b)
c)
d)
$500 billion
$1 trillion
$2 trillion
$3 trillion
25%
$500 billion
25%
$1 trillion
25%
$2 trillion
25%
$3 trillion
20
In fiscal year 2009, the budget deficit is
projected to be
a)
b)
c)
d)
$500 billion
$750billion
$1 trillion
$1.75 trillion
25%
$500 billion
25%
$750billion
25%
25%
$1 trillion
$1.75 trillion
20
The Federal Budget and Fiscal Policy
 Federal budget
• annual statement of the federal government’s outlays and tax
revenues.
• Two purposes
o finance the activities of the federal government
o achieve macroeconomic objectives
 Fiscal policy
• the use of the federal budget to achieve macroeconomic objectives
• Employment Act of 1946
it is the continuing policy and responsibility of the Federal
Government to use all practicable means . . . to coordinate and
utilize all its plans, functions, and resources . . . to promote
maximum employment, production, and purchasing power.
Timeline for Budget Process
February to March
President submits budget request to Congress.
May-August:
House and Senate revise/amend proposals
September
House-Senate conference committees resolve differences and agree on final
versions of spending bills. President signs or vetoes final bills.
October 1
Beginning of fiscal year.
Congress passes continuing resolutions to maintain funding for any agencies
affected by appropriations bills that have not been passed and signed by the
beginning of the fiscal year.
Fiscal Policy
 The Council of Economic Advisers
• Chaired by Christina Romer
• monitors the economy
• keeps the President and the public well informed about
the current state of the economy
• forecasts of where it is heading.
• source of data that informs the budget-making process.
 Congressional Budget Office
• Forecasts effects of legislative changes on budget and
economy
Federal Government Revenues
Federal Government Spending
Federal Deficits and Public Debt
 Budgett = revenuet –outlayst
• if Budgett > 0  budget surplus
• if Budgett < 0  budget deficit
 Debtt = Debtt-1 - budgett-1
• Budget deficits increase debt
• Budget surpluses decrease debt
The national debt clock
The Federal Budget
CBO PROJECTIONS OF OBAMA BUDGET
SOURCE: http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/100xx/doc10014/03-20-PresidentBudget.pdf
The National Debt
State and Local Budgets
• The total government sector includes state and local
governments as well as the federal government.
• In 2008, when federal government outlays were about
$3,200 billion, state and local outlays were a further
$2,000 billion.
• Most of state expenditures were on public schools,
colleges, and universities ($550 billion); local police
and fire services; and roads.
• Most states have “balanced budget amendments”.
Supply-Side Economics
 Fiscal policy aimed at increasing LAS
• Income taxes affect LAS by affecting labor supply.
• Higher income taxes reduce labor supply & reduce LAS
• “Supply-siders” argue for low marginal tax rates.
 Graph the effect of an increase in income tax rate on
•
•
•
•
before-tax real wage rate, after-tax real wage rate.
Tax-wedge
Equilibrium employment
LAS
Effect of an increase in income tax rate
Tax Wedge Comparisons
In 2008, a single person with $10,000 of taxable
income would pay federal income taxes of:
a)
b)
c)
d)
$542
$937
$1526
$1924
25%
$542
25%
25%
$937
$1,526
25%
20
$1,924
In 2008, a single person with $100,000 of
taxable income would pay federal income taxes
of:
a)
b)
c)
d)
$9,371
$14,268
$17,372
$21,978
25%
$9,371
25%
25%
$14,268
$17,372
25%
20
$21,978
In 2008, a single person with $1,000,000 of
taxable income would pay federal income taxes
of:
a)
b)
c)
d)
$221,365
$328,597
$416,317
$527,102
25%
$221,365
25%
25%
$328,597
$416,317
25%
20
$527,102
Federal Income Tax Marginal Rates
For recent tax rate schedules and a tax calculator, see:
http://www.moneychimp.com/features/tax_brackets.htm
Top Marginal Tax Rates
Source: http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxfacts/displayafact.cfm?Docid=213
Historical average tax rates in U.S.
by Income Quintile: Income Tax Only
.: http://www.cbo.gov/doc.cfm?index=6133&type=0
Source:
Includes individual income tax only
“The lucky duckies”
 WSJ, November 2003.
The most recent data from the IRS, in 2000, show
that the top 5% coughed up more than half of total tax
revenue. Specifically, we are talking about folks with
adjusted gross incomes of $128,336 and higher being
responsible for 56% of the tax take. Eyebrows raised?
There's more. The top 50% of taxpayers accounted
for almost all income tax revenue--96% of the total
take.
Source: http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110002937
Share of Federal Income Taxes Paid by Quintile
.:
Source: http://www.cbo.gov/doc.cfm?index=6133&type=0
Includes individual income tax only
The Supply-Side: The Laffer Curve.
Tax Revenue
Tax Rates
The Laffer Curve
 As tax rates rise, taxable income may fall because
• People reduce work hours
• Tax avoidance increases
o Legal tax avoidance
–
–
–
–
Charities
Tax free bonds
Pension saving
Etc
o Illegal tax avoidance
– Under-report income
– Inflate deductions
Laffer Curve and Capital Gains Tax
Source: http://time-blog.com/curious_capitalist/2008/01/do_capital_gains_tax_cuts_incr.html
According to the Laffer curve, if tax rates rise,
tax revenue
..
fa
.
M
ay
ris
e
or
W
ill
33%
fa
ll
33%
ris
e
33%
W
ill
a) Will rise
b) May rise or fall
c) Will fall
20
The Supply-Side: Investment and Saving
 GDP = C + I + G + (X – M)
 GDP = C + S + T
 I + G + (X – M) = S + T
I = S + (T – G) + (M – X)
Private saving PS = S + (M – X)
Government Saving GS=T-G
 I = PS + GS
The Supply-Side: Investment and Saving
The Supply-Side: Investment and Saving
 Fiscal policy influences investment and saving in two
ways:
• Taxes affect the incentive to save and change the
supply of loanable funds.
• Government saving is a component of total saving and
the supply of loanable funds.
The Supply-Side: Investment and Saving
 A tax on capital income
decreases the supply
of loanable funds
 a tax wedge is driven
between the interest
rate and the after-tax
interest rate
 Investment and saving
decrease.
The Supply-Side: Investment and Saving
 Ricardo-Barro Equivalence
• In above diagram, it is assumed that government
budget does not shift PSLF curve.
• Ricardo-Barro:
o Larger deficits cause households to increase
savings in order to cover future tax increases.
o Net effect of larger deficit on SLF curve is zero
because PSLF curve shifts right.
o No effect on investment or interest rates
o All increases in deficits are offset by increased
saving (decreased consumption).
Assume that deficits do not affect private
saving. A larger budget deficit will lead to ___
interest rates and ___ investment
25%
Lo
w
er
;
or
e
;m
er
Hi
gh
er
;l
or
e
;m
er
25%
le
ss
25%
es
s
25%
Lo
w
Higher; more
Higher; less
Lower; more
Lower; less
Hi
gh
a)
b)
c)
d)
20
Assuming Ricardo-Barro effects, an increase in the
federal budget deficit will lead to ___ private saving,
___ interest rates, and ____ investment.
a) No change in;
higher; less
b) More; no change in;
no change in.
c) More; lower; more.
d) None of the above
b.
..
. ..
No
ne
of
th
ea
er
;m
ow
M
or
e
;l
o
;n
or
e
M
No
ch
an
ge
ch
an
in
g..
.
;.
..
25% 25% 25% 25%
20
Stabilizing the Business Cycle
 Discretionary fiscal policy
• action that is initiated by an act of Congress.
 Automatic fiscal policy (Auto stabilizers)
• fiscal policy triggered by the state of the economy.
Stabilizing the Business Cycle
 Discretionary Fiscal
Stabilization
• An increase in
government
expenditure or a tax
cut increases
aggregate demand.
• The “multiplier
process” increases
aggregate demand
further.
• Size of multiplier is
controversial.
Stabilizing the Business Cycle
• A decrease in
government
expenditure or a tax
increase decreases
aggregate demand.
• The multiplier
process decreases
aggregate demand
further.
Stabilizing the Business Cycle
 Limitations of Discretionary Fiscal Policy
• Recognition lag
o time it takes to figure out that fiscal policy action is
needed.
o Law-making lag
– time it takes Congress to pass the laws needed to change
taxes or spending.
o Impact lag
– time it takes from passing a tax or spending change to its
effect on real GDP being felt.
Stabilizing the Business Cycle
 Automatic Stabilizers
• mechanisms that stabilize real GDP without explicit
action by the government.
• Taxes that rise and fall with GDP taxes and needstested spending are automatic stabilizers.
• When real GDP decreases in a recession
• wages and profits fall, so taxes fall
• Needs-tested spending rises
• Budget deficit grows (surplus shrinks)
The Budget and the Business Cycle
 Cyclical and Structural Balances
 Actual Budget = Cyclical Budget + Structural Budget
• The structural surplus or deficit
• the surplus or deficit that would occur if the economy
were at full employment and real GDP were equal to
potential GDP.
• The cyclical surplus or deficit
• the surplus or deficit that occurs purely because real
GDP does not equal potential GDP.
• Cyclical budget < 0 if GDP< potential GDP
Cyclical and Structural Budget
If the structural budget is +$100 billion and the
cyclical budget is -$300 billion, we can conclude
that if the economy was at full employment:
ou
l
d
be
...
e
e
Th
er
Th
er
w
ou
l
d
be
ou
ld
w
th
er
e
33%
be
...
33%
.. .
33%
w
a) there would be a
surplus
b) There would be a
deficit.
c) There would be a
balanced budget.
20
If the structural budget is +$100 billion and the
cyclical budget is -$300 billion, we can conclude
that the economy is currently producing ____
potential GDP
33%
at
ow
33%
be
l
ab
ov
e
a) above
b) below
c) at
33%
20
As the economy recovers from the current
recession, the actual budget deficit should
a) Shrink as tax revenues rise and
government spending falls
b) Shrink as tax revenues and
government spending fall
c) Rise as tax revenues rise and
government spending falls.
d) None of the above.
b.
..
...
of
No
ne
as
se
Ri
th
ta
x
ea
re
...
ax
st
ka
Sh
rin
Sh
rin
ka
st
ax
...
25% 25% 25% 25%
20