Transcript College Age Student Demographics

Demographic Statistics and
Trends
Knowing who is (and who isn’t) knocking at the college door
Becky Brodigan
Middlebury College
College Board Forum
October 31, 2005
1
What goes into the equation?




High School Graduation Projections (by
race and income) by region through
2018
College Going Rates
Migration Data
Enrollment Patterns by Race and
Gender
2
New England, Surrounding States,
Regions and the United States

Projections by Race/Ethnic Group and
Income


Vary widely by racial/ethnic group and region
Overall picture not rosy
3
Number of Public High School Graduates Peaks in
2009 and doesn’t recover until 2018…
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
0
Source: WICHE/The College Board
HS Graduates in New England
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
20
04
-0
20 5
05
-0
20 6
06
-0
20 7
07
-0
20 8
08
-0
20 9
09
-1
20 0
10
-1
20 1
11
-12
20
12
-1
20 3
13
-1
20 4
14
-1
20 5
15
-1
20 6
16
-1
20 7
17
-1
8
0
Native American
Asian American
African American
Hispanic
5
HS Graduates in New England
20
04
20 05
05
20 06
06
20 07
07
20 08
08
20 09
09
20 10
10
20 11
11
20 12
12
20 13
13
20 14
14
20 15
15
20 16
16
20 17
17
-1
8
120,000
110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Native American
Asian American
African American
Hispanic
White, Non-Hispanic
6
Changes in actual numbers
from 2006 to 2108
5,800
4,407
6,000
3,000
575
492
0
(3,000)
(6,000)
(9,000)
(12,000)
-10,829
(15,000)
(18,000)
-17,842
White
Hispanic
Asian American
Native American
African American
Overall
7
Chance for college by age 19 in
New England
50%
49%
47%
43%
45%
39%
40%
38%
35%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Massachusetts
Connecticut
New
Hampshire
Maine
Rhode Island
Vermont
8
SAT Takers by Race/Ethnicity
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
86%
New England
1% 1%
Native
American
5%
10%
Asian
American
US
73%
13%
5%
Hispanic
4% 4%
White
Other
9
Changes in HS graduates in the
Northeast
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
(10,000)
(20,000)
(30,000)
(40,000)
(50,000)
(60,000)
(70,000)
23,474
14,871
616
-6,343
-7,427
-36,637
Native
Asian
African Hispanic
American American American
-63,851
White,
NonHispanic
Public
-42,980
Private
Total
10
Changes in HS graduates in the
Pennsylvania
4,000
0
(4,000)
126
2,799
1,637
-1,182
-2,705
(8,000)
(12,000)
-12,250
(16,000)
-14,955
-15,178
(20,000)
Native
Asian
African Hispanic
American American American
White
Public
Private
Total
11
160,000
Projections of HS Graduates
in the South
135,838
140,000
134,637
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
26,003
4,972
14,963
0
(20,000)
-21,726
(40,000)
Native
American
Asian
American
African
American
Hispanic
White
Total
12
Chance for college by age 19
in South
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
28%
31%
33%
33%
33%
Texas
Louisiana
Alabama
31%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Nevada
Florida
Georgia
13
Projections of HS Graduates
in the Midwest
60,000
42,088
40,000
14,657
20,000
0
675
4,025
4,140
1,884
-2,256
(20,000)
(40,000)
(60,000)
Native
Asian
African Hispanic
American American American
-54,043
White
Public
Private
Total
14
Projections of HS Graduates
in the West
79,952
80,000
60,000
50,157
46,397
40,000
19,344
20,000
0
(20,000)
-67
-3,694
-3,760
(40,000)
-49,615
(60,000)
Native
Asian
African Hispanic
American American American
White
Public
Private
Total
15
Chance for college by age 19 in the West
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
40%
33%
35%
35%
35%
28%
on
t
g
n
hi
s
a
W
gon
e
r
O
New
ico
x
e
M
nia
r
o
f
i
Cal
ho
Ida
do
a
r
o
Col
16
Projections of HS Graduates
in the United States
272,749
280,000
210,000
139,938
137,490
140,000
83,478
70,000
6,196
7,867
2,448
0
(70,000)
(140,000)
-189,235
(210,000)
Native
Asian
African Hispanic
American American American
White
Public
Private
Total
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Ca
lif
or
11%
10%
U
S
ni
a
as
11%
Te
x
na
ts
hu
se
t
Ar
iz
o
sa
c
M
ai
ne
Is
la
nd
42%
M
as
de
48%
Rh
o
ire
ct
ic
ut
ps
h
am
t
50%
nn
e
H
on
rm
60%
Co
ew
N
Ve
Emigration of College Students
57%
46%
42%
40%
32%
30%
18%
20%
8%
0%
18
Percent of Freshmen from Out-of-State
80%
70%
70%
67%
60%
51%
50%
39%
40%
34%
40%
30%
25%
20%
20%
8%
10%
8%
US
rn
ia
Ca
lif
o
as
Te
x
na
Ar
izo
sa
c
hu
se
t
ts
M
ai
ne
de
Is
lan
d
Rh
o
icu
t
ct
nn
e
Co
M
as
N
ew
H
Ve
am
rm
ps
h
on
t
ire
0%
19
Levels of Education for the High School
Class of 1992 ( by 2000)
60%
53% 51%
51%
50%
38%
40%
41%
33% 35%
35%
30%
20%
19% 20% 17%
16%
6%
10%
20%
6%
0%
No College
Native American
Hispanic
Some College
African American
BA
Caucasian
Asian American
20
Four-Year College and University Enrollment Rates of
1992 HS Graduates by Family Income and Math Test
Scores
90%
80%
70%
Lowest Income
Second Quartile
Third Quartile
Highest Income
78%
68% 69%
59%
60%
47%
50%
40%
33%
30%
20%
84%
15% 14%
21%
37%
27%
10%
0%
Lowest Third
Middle Third
Top Third
21
Participation by Low-income


All New England states above the national average
of 25%
Lowest rates are in the south and west
22
College going rates: Where are the boys?




Males outnumber female through age 30 –
for every 100 girls born, 105 males are born
Males account for less than 50% of high
school graduates
Males account for 47% of college freshmen
Continuation rates vary by gender – men
around 61% and women 67%
23
What about boys?




Among 15-24 year olds, suicide rates are almost 6 times
higher for boys than for girls
There are 707 prisoners for every 100,000 people and
90% are male
The male voting rate has declined from 72% to 53%
from 1964 to 2000 – twice the decline in the female
voting rate
Do/will males have an advantage in college admissions?
From Fact Sheet: What’s Wrong with the Guys? Thomas G. Mortenson
24
SAT Takers by Gender
60%
50%
54%
54%
46%
45%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
US
New England
Men
Women
25
Fall 2004 Freshmen by Gender by
Institution Type
70%
60%
50%
57%
50%
50%
43%
62%
59%
42%
40%
38%
30%
20%
10%
0%
VS Private
Universities
Private Colleges
Men
Black Colleges
Catholic
Women
26
Fall 2004 Freshmen
by Gender and Region
60%
50%
55%
45%
46%
57%
55%
54%
45%
43%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Eastern
Midwestern
Men
Southern
Women
Western
27
Fall 2004 Freshmen
by Gender by Income
20%
15%
15%
19%
17%
12% 13%
12%
10%
19%
14%
14%
15%
17%
14%
9%
7%
5%
0%
Less than 20 to 40
20
40 to 60
60 to 75
Men
75 to 100 100 to 150 150 and
above
Women
28
Fall 2004 Freshmen
Average HS Grades by Gender
39%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
27%
20%
27%
26%
21%
20% 20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
A or A+
A-
B+
Men
B or lower
Women
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NE Enrollment Patterns: Full-Time
80%
Men
Women
70%
50%
56%
55%
60%
45%
55%
45%
44%
55%
45%
54%
52%
48%
46%
55%
45%
55%
45%
40%
30%
20%
10%
U
S
To
ta
l
To
ta
l
on
t
Ve
rm
RI
H
N
as
s
M
ai
ne
M
Co
nn
e
ct
ic
ut
0%
30
NE Enrollment Patterns: Part-Time
Women
63%
U
S
59%
To
ta
l
To
ta
l
66%
Ve
rm
on
t
H
63%
RI
63%
62%
N
M
ai
ne
Co
nn
ec
tic
ut
62%
68%
Men
M
as
s
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
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Enrollment at Liberal Arts Colleges
66%
70%
60%
54%
59%
60%
61%
57%
60%
58%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
al
n
tio
n
n
n
ic
a
a
a
n
c
c
c
ri
ri
ri
pa
e
e
e
s
a
i
m
m
m
rn
H
A
A
A
e
t
e
n
n
In
ia
ca
tiv
s
i
a
r
A
N
Af
Men
Women
W
e
hit
n
w
no
k
Un
tal
o
T
32
Enrollment at Ivy League
70%
58%
60%
51%
44%
50%
52%
50%
46%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
t
In
al
n
o
ati
n
er
A
an
c
i
fr
an
c
i
er
m
A
N
ve
i
t
a
an
c
i
er
m
A
A
Am
n
sia
Men
an
c
i
er
Women
i
an
p
is
H
c
W
e
hit
33
Doctoral
(minus technical universities)
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
62%
l
a
n
r
te
n
a
c
ri
f
A
e
m
A
n
ir ca
Na
e
tiv
n
Am
ca
i
r
e
A
A
n
sia
Men
57%
52%
44%
a
n
o
ti
In
56%
n
ca
i
r
me
Women
isp
H
i
an
c
52%
e
hi t
W
34
Percent of Total Undergraduate State Aid
Not Based on Need, 1982 to 2002
(Source: College Board)
35
Summary



HS graduation projections
 in NE going down over all
 Increases in groups with lower college
continuation rates
 Increasing in states that do not export students
Male/Female ratios not likely to improve
Colleges in NE going to have to work harder just to
maintain market share – expand marketing efforts
and develop new strategies
36
What do these colleges have in common?





Bradford College
Westbrook College
Ricker College
Trinity College
Notre Dame
No longer exist or exist under a different name
37
References
Publications

Postsecondary Opportunity July 2004, October 2004, November 2004 and December 2004

Trends in Educational Equity of Girls and Women, NCES.

College Board Data and Reporting Products, Integrated State Summary Report New England - All Schools

2004 College-Bound Seniors: A Profile of SAT Program Test Takers

Enrollment in Postsecondary Education Institutions, Fall 2002 and Financial Statistics, Fiscal Year 2002

The Condition of Education, 2004: National Center for Education Statistics

Education Pays 2004: The College Board

Gender Equity in Higher Education: Are Male Students at a Disadvantage? American Council on Education
Center for Policy Analysis, 2000 and updated tables and figures, August 2003.

Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State, Income and Race/Ethnicity:
Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, December 2003.

The American Freshman: National Norms for Fall 2004, Cooperative Institutional Research Program, Higher
Education Research Institute, UCLA, December 2004.
Books

Mismatch: The Growing Gulf Between Men and Women, Andrew Hacker, Scribner, 2003.

Raising Cain: Protecting the Emotional Life of Boys, Dan Kindlon and Michael Thompson, Ballantyne, 2000.

Conditions of Access: Higher Education for Lower Income Students, Donald Heller, Editor, Praeger/ACE,
2002.

America’s Untapped Resource: Low Income Students in Higher Education, Richard D, Kahlenberg, Editor,
The Century Foundation, 2004.

The Source of the River: The Social Origins of Freshmen at America's Selective Colleges and Universities;
Douglas s. Massey, Camille Z. Charles, Garvey F. Lundy, Mary J. Fischer, Princeton University Press, 2003. 38
39