Transcript global energy - for SEI-Boston

Global Energy Modeling
Dick Lawrence
Berlin 2004
Photo from Jim Baldauf
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
Agenda
Introductions – who’s here
Why we are here
Presentation
Discussion
• Is this the right thing to do?
• What does the project look like? How many people, and who?
• Modeling expertise?
• University connections?
• How is it funded? Sponsoring organizations?
• Time frame: start => end
• Modeling tools
ARs –
• What do we do next?
• When do we meet next?
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
Energy Matters 1
“Energy is at the core of virtually every problem
facing humanity. We cannot afford to get this
wrong. We should be skeptical of optimism
that the existing energy industry will be able to
work this out on its own.”
Testimony of witness Dr. Richard E. Smalley to the Senate
Committee on Energy and Natural Resources – Full Committee
Hearing on sustainable low-emission electricity generation, 27
April, 2004
Dr. Smalley is Director of the Carbon Nanotechnology Laboratory
at Rice University
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
Energy Matters 2
“… the momentous decisions we take
in the next few years will determine
whether our heirs thank us or curse
us for the energy choices we
bequeath to them.”
Alex Kirby, BBC News Online environment
correspondent, 19 April 2004
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
Everything Depends on Energy
Whatever cause motivates you will be a lost
•
•
•
•
•
cause if we do not have the energy to sustain
society, industry, and agriculture in something like
its present form …
Raising standard of living in developing nations
Reducing disease and illiteracy
Eliminating hunger and famine in Africa, Asia,
South America
“Sustainable development” and economic growth
Extending democratic institutions around the world
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
Energy? Not a Problem … Right?
Why is it so hard to communicate the Peak Oil message?
• The Boy Who Cried Wolf … “we’ve heard that before”
• “They’re always finding more oil!” (true, but …)
• Reserves/production = “40 years, at present rate of use”
Acknowledging Peak Oil is only the first step toward
understanding the problem:
• “OK, I buy your Peak Oil story, but market forces will
ensure adequate energy for everyone – when prices go up,
people will find alternatives!” (free-market theory)
• “OK, I buy your Peak Oil story, but we’ve got 40 years for
science and technology to come through with something!”
(they always did, before)
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
Everyone Agrees “Peak Oil” is
Just a Matter of Time
But… huge uncertainty as to WHEN
1. Optimistic or contradictory oil and gas projections
lead to complacency and confusion
2. No agreement on consequences of peak oil,
whenever it comes
Result: Little has been done since oil crisis of 1973 • Contribution of “renewables” still very small
• Nuclear is practically at a standstill
• Economic recovery leading to record consumption
of oil, gas, and coal => what about global
warming?
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
Energy
Energy
Future
Future
According
According to
to ASPO
USGS
Huge
Disagreement!
120
How can something this important have
so much uncertainty? (+/-100%!)
100
URR According
URR = 3 Trillion Bbl
to USGS, IEA, …
World
2+ Trillion Remaining
URR According
URR = ~2 Trillion Bbl
to ASPO
1+ Trillion
Remaining
OPEC
80
60
40
20
0
1920
USA
1940
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1960
1980
2000
2020
World Energy Modeling
2040
1) No Agreement on Crude Oil URR
• Unreliable, missing, or unbelievable reserve
numbers
• Variable estimates for “reserve growth” applied at
global level
• How much “Yet to Be Discovered” exists?
• Disagreement on impact of new technology
• Uncertainty re. relation of price to exploration,
discovery, and extraction rates
• Wildly-varying estimates for future production rates
and URR for tar sands, Venezuela heavy, shale oil
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
2) More Reasons for Confusion and
Complacency
For every Fossil-Fuel alarmist, there is another
expert saying “No problem”
Opinions run the gamut:
• Utopian scenarios of fusion-enabled hydrogenfueled industry, transport, and agriculture
• Magical reversion to 18th-century way of life
• Cataclysmic scenarios of war, starvation, death
Without science or numbers behind them,
all opinions are equally valid
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
Oil Demand Exceeding Expectations
Population – world population projected to
continue rising past 2050 or later (9-10 B)
Industrial development – China’s oil imports
rise 30+% in 2003, surpasses Japan; India
and rest of SE Asia also exploding demand
Middle-class aspirations in China, India
Although losing industry, N American demand
continues to rise – transport, electricity, gas
Rest of world coming out of recession – EIA
repeatedly raising estimates of demand
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
Agriculture
Agriculture was once very
labor-intensive in human
and animal power; what will
substitute for fossil fuels
now that we number 6.4
billion (heading for 9 to 10
billion) ?
US horse population
peaked in 1915 at 25
million; 20% of all
arable US land was
used to feed horses.
US humans numbered We have never seen a
100 million. In 2015, plan for feeding 9 billion
expect 300M people. people without fossil fuel!
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
M bbl/day
The Big Picture –
Oil Production over History
100
80
World
World
World
World
World
60
40
?
OPEC
OPEC
OPEC
OPEC
OPEC
20
USA
USA
USA
USA
USA
0
2200 2200 2300
18801920
2100
2100
2100
2060
2060
2080
1900
1900
1900
1920
1940
1800
1960
1800
1980
1980
1980 2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
20202040
2040
1700
2040
2040
1920
1920
1960
1960
1960
2020
2020
1940
1940
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
What the World Needs Now
Better data on reserves, production capability
(Simmons, Bakhtiari, Campbell et al) –
improve forecasts of future oil, gas production
A good world energy model
(us, here) – improve our ability to:
• Accompany ASPO’s Peak Oil message with
energy modeling to show its implications
• Understand consequences of decisions made
• Analyze relative feasibility and net energy of
future energy scenarios
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
Complex Systems Modeling History
Big Studies
• Limits to Growth (Meadows et al 1972)
• Beyond Oil (Gever, Kaufmann, Skole, Vorosmarty
1986, 1991)
Techniques, Papers, Books
• HT Odum, Cutler Cleveland, Charles Hall …
Modeling Software and Systems
• Must handle hundreds of variables, complex
feedback relationships
• Limits to Growth – IBM mainframe, MIT
• Beyond Oil – Fortran on a Prime supermini
• Now: Stella – dynamic systems modeling software,
used by Richard Duncan and others
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
Linking Multiple Models
• There are many different “energy models”,
most dealing with one aspect of energy –
typically focusing on supply only, or demand
only, or one particular type of energy
• Imagine a modeling structure that could tie
several models together: output of one model
(for example) can be input to another;
• No model known tackles the problem in a
holistic, worldwide and integrated way; we
want to understand the implications of an
integrated supply and demand model, for all
types of energy
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
What’s an Energy Model Good For?
• Raise awareness of fossil-fuel depletion and its
consequences for global policy makers, decision makers
• Analyze and quantify the consequences of fossil-fuel
depletion on agriculture, industry, commerce and homes
• Show the impact of different rates of adoption for various
mixes of renewable/fossil/nuclear sources
• Make world energy information program-accessible, in one
database, in standardized format
• With standardized and rigorous ERoEI methodology, show
what mix of conventional and renewable energies has the
best outcome – point the way, avoid dead ends
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
What’s an Energy Model Good For?
(detail)
• Impact of ERoEI on URR (example)
• Impact of ERoEI on NET ENERGY (example)
• Quantify impact of delaying investment in
alternatives (example)
• Critical analysis of alternative energy sources
–
–
–
–
–
The Hydrogen Economy
Biofuels like ethanol
Tar sands and other unconventional oil
Shale oil
Nuclear power
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
Impact of ERoEI on URR
URR
Unavailable
URR
Time
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
Understanding Net Energy
• All energy sources require up-front
investment in energy, as well as $ capital
and human effort, to yield a return on that
investment
• NET ENERGY: Energy Returned on Energy
Invested = ERoEI
• Some investments are better than others
• Some investments are energy losers!
• How can we know which ones to invest in?
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
The Energy Cost of Energy
3% decline per year
100
75
- NET ENERGY
Analysis
Cumulative new
energy from
investment
Useful Lifetime 25 Years
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
The Energy Cost of Energy
75
60
85
Cumulative new
energy from
investment
Available (net) Energy after Investment
100
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
- NET ENERGY
Analysis
Consequence of Delayed Investment
Net Energy Production
120
begin investment before decline
100
80
Begin
investment
during decline
60
40
20
0 0
10
20
30
Time
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
40
From Beyond Oil, fig. 7-1
Comparative Analysis of Future
Energy Resources
• Any realistic future contains a mix of energy
sources; what’s the best mix?
• Which are the energy losers and dead ends?
• Where should we invest our energy and $
capital for the best return (net energy),
best long-term sustainable future, and
best outcome for the environment?
Good data and a high-quality model will
point the way
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
Model Structure and Organization
• Database of best-known world energy information
• World energy information is program-accessible
• Use of spreadsheets as database inputs, outputs,
and program-to-program intermediary
• Can link multiple programs for energy supply,
energy demand, mixes of renewable energy
• Peripheral programs may input data on oil & gas
production, demand, population, …
• Model output shown as graphs, tables – future
total energy and per-capita net energy by type, by
region, by year, as function of scenario
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
Energy
Demand
Model
Input data
Oil & Gas
from IEA,
Supply
BP,USGS,
Model
O&G Journal
Spreadsheetdatabase
UN
Population
Model
Spreadsheetdatabase
Model Structure (example)
Model Core
Dynamic
System
Simulation
(Stella or
similar
software)
ASPO Oil-Gas
Model, OPEC
Model, Wocap
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
Future
Scenario
Spreadsheetdatabase
Model Attributes
• Transparency
– Model inputs are databases / spreadsheets
– Database inputs & outputs directly human-viewable as
spreadsheets, or easily converted to spreadsheets
– Inner workings of model and underlying assumptions
are visible and easy to understand
• Accessibility
– Any reasonably-equipped PC can run the models and
view results
– Modeling software is reasonably priced, or shareware,
or free
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
Model Attributes (detail)
• Linkable
– One model can feed into another via standardized
database (e.g. spreadsheet)
• Standardized Database Format
– “Oil Export from Nigeria in 1997” goes to predetermined
(Row 97) location in “Africa Production” spreadsheet
– Every program has SW modules that tell it where to get
input data, and where to put output data
• Database Structure Has Extensible Detail Level
– Data in any cell of a spreadsheet can be sourced from
another page of the spreadsheet, or another spreadsheet
– down to oil-field level of detail, if wanted
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
Example of Per-Country Energy Spreadsheet
Country X
Cell
A
B
C
D
E
Year
Conventional
Offshore
Deep Water
Gas-toLiquid
059 1959
3.5
0
0
0
0
060 1960
4.6
0
0
0
0
061 1961
4.8
0
0
0
0
062 1962
5.4
0
0
0
0
063 1963
5.8
0.1
0
0
0
064 1964
6.9
0.3
0
0.20
0
065 1965
7.4
2.5
0
0.31
0
066 1966
7.5
5.1
0
0.55
0
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
F
Oil Sands
Production
By-Country Database Development
• View adjacent countries as 3D space with
energy flows across the boundaries;
• Track all energy flows – all types of fossil-fuel
imports, exports; electricity; include storage,
gas-to-liquid, refinery gain;
• Show consumption of all types (net energy of
typeX in = consumption + storage);
• checking mechanism: S(all imports) = S(all
exports) for each energy type, elec generation
& consumption
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
Tracking Energy Flow Between Countries
“Country” is
natural boundary
for a spreadsheet – IEA
data, BP data, etc. all on
per-country basis
24 May 2004
•checking mechanism: S(all
imports) = S(all exports) for
each energy type, elec gen’n
& cons’n
World Energy Modeling
Building the World Energy Model
What’s Needed
• Work together and agree on goals, scope, and process
• Identify several strong and committed co-sponsoring
organizations
• Develop preliminary project and funding plan
• Core team of 4-6 experienced staff for 2-3 years, with
solid academic connections & resources
• Need a strong visionary leader and experienced modeling
advisors
• Identify funding sources to meet staffing requirements
• Develop model; use worldwide Internet, academic
connections for data-entry job developing machinereadable database / spreadsheets;
• Agree on initial scenarios, start model runs, document
results
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
Long-Term Prospect
Funded team runs scenarios on model, documents
results – but, the need does not end there!
World’s need to keep model updated, improve it, run
new scenarios will continue beyond this decade
The People’s Energy Model
• Outreach program: Train others to develop and run
scenarios
• Continue to refine detail and accuracy in model’s database
• Set up energy equivalent to Open Software Foundation for
long-term continuing development, maintenance, and
future scenario running
• Could be some great PhD dissertations in this!
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
Meeting
of
End
of Presentation
It’sFirst
Up
to
You Now
The Club of Berlin
Is Now Called to Order
Thanks to Ken
Deffeyes and
son for the
design!
Your Name Here
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
Backup
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
Outline & notes
Things to add:
need better reserve estimates, more transparency, standardized test & reporting methods; (reserve growth)
The fact that the remaining amount of such a critical resource to global industry, commerce, and civilization as we
know it can have such a wide range of estimates ought to be a huge concern for anyone planning more than
a decade into the future; governments plan social security, transportation systems,
Need better oil & gas future production estimates
Need robust ERoEI technique and numbers for FF, nuclear, renewable energy sources
Outline:
•
Uncertainty over oil, gas reserve estimates 2:1 range
•
Complexity of economic/energy analysis: response of price to shortage, response of demand to price,
•
Modeling
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
History and Future of Oil Supply
Oil & NGL’s, from ASPO
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
You are here
Energy Supply
• ODAC database for all liquid fuels
• Samsam Bakhtiari’s Wocap program
•
Projections from the reference case of OPEC’s World
Energy Model, “OWEM”
• Richard Shepherd, Maarten van Mourik – see Word doc
• Other supply-side programs
• Near-term production estimates use known mega-project developments;
longer-term, on basis of known discovery and any other data
• breakdown by region
• breakdown by type
• contribution of fossil fuel alternatives
• Take into account all known constraints on development and production
• Some “yet-to-be-discovered” will never be discovered due to energy cost
of finding and developing (see Lower48 actual vs. USGS projections)
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
The Supply-Demand Gap
100
?
80
World
60
40
OPEC
20
0
1920
USA
1940
24 May 2004
1960
1980
2000
2020
World Energy Modeling
2040
Energy Demand Trend
• historical; % per year now (1.7%?)
• basis: population, development, growing
expectations
• per-capita
• by region
• by use-type
• special mention: China
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
Energy Demand
• If world per-capita energy is to remain constant
• Population models or tables (UN) are inputs 1AD
= 170M, 1500 = .5B, 1804 =1B, 1938 2B, now
6.5B; 2.5B bbl/yr to 27B. Avg rate 0.5% for 5K
yrs, now 1.3%
• By-country data and trends
• Monitor trends in domestic consumption of OilExporting countries
• Tellus Institute model?
• Complication: feedback of supply, demand,
mismatch and price => demand
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
Energy Demand Trend
•
•
•
•
historical
per-capita
by region
by use-type
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
Supply-Demand Mismatch
•
•
•
•
No near-term substitute for oil
US Hubbert peak 1970
World Hubbert peak (plateau?) 2005-2010
(highlight the gap btwn production curve
and demand curve) – see Bakhtiari
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
The Mismatch
Show 2 graphs: the pessimist (“realist") version,
the optimist (conventional wisdom) version
Ask “how much time do we have left?” for case 1, case 2
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
Alternative Energy Sources
•
•
•
•
•
alternative contribution now
hydro, wind, solar, biomass, ...
hydrogen is not an energy source
negative ERoEI for methanol, etc.
capital and energy costs of developing the
infrastructure
• estimated ERoEI for each type
• nuclear and coal
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
Searching for Our Energy Future
• Rush to coal will accelerate already-high CO2 growth
• Nuclear is politically problematic
– Concern about weapons proliferation
– New issues as terrorist target
– Controversial and unpopular in Europe, N America
• Alternatives to oil
– Coal to liquid
– NatGas to liquid
– Tar sands & Shale Oil
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
Likely energy mix scenario
• creation of alternative energy infrastructure large enough to
make a contribution takes capital, and energy
• chart from Beyond Oil: per-capita energy decline as function
of delay in transition to alternatives
• Run the scenarios with ERoEI, quantify energy diverted to
building/acquiring new infrastructure
• Many are convinced we should be undertaking massive
transitions NOW – while FF energy is still cheap and
abundant - to renewable / sustainable sources of energy – but
can’t prove it
• Not convinced that market “price signals” are working well
enough to avert disaster
• A good model should be able to quantify the net-energy
impact of delaying deployment of alternative energy sources
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
The Big Picture
Mio t
4000
Oil production
Oil production
?
OPEC
USA
0
1920
24 May 2004
1940
1960
1980
2000
ROW-Russia
2020
World Energy Modeling
2040
The Big Picture
•
•
•
•
•
•
Population trend
Graph of population and fossil-fuel use
Industrialized agriculture
Humans as detritovores, in overshoot
Concept of sustainable population
Leibig’s theory of population constraint; relation to
globalization and increased interdependence
• The numbers: est’d peak ~10B; decline to 0.5B-2B
in next 40 years?
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
The Big Picture (cont’d)
• Population and energy
• Malthus, Ehrlich, Jimmy Carter, and the
Club of Rome were right
• Factors presently reducing sustainability for
post-fossil-fuel humanity
– pollution & environmental degradation
– soil degradation and aquifer depletion
– majority of world fisheries over-fished
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
Problem Statement: How do we
get there from here?
•
•
•
•
•
Historical record not encouraging
Typical: famine, disease, war
Resource wars underway?
Power centers making resource grabs now
Is there a “soft” way down?
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
Soft Way Down?
• Population must rapidly stabilize and then decline,
or
• Massive transition to non-fossil-fuel sources of
energy must begin very soon; it may be too late
• Maximize investment in alternative energy
sources, nuclear, ... requires diverting a portion of
present cheap energy stream away from current
uses
• Reverse current trend of growing inequality;
wealth = access to energy = survival
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
Role of Modeling
• historical
• per-capita
• by region – unlike Limits to Growth, include
regional & nation level of detail to encompass
huge regional differences in energy production
and use
• by use-type
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
Step 1: World Energy Database
• Enter world energy statistics into softwarereadable spreadsheet or database
• What’s so great about a spreadsheet?
– Human-accessible – most people are familiar with
spreadsheets, can read and modify them easily
– Machine-accessible (1)– programs and database
software can extract and use values from sprdsht
– Machine-accessible (2)– programs and database
software can insert values and generate graphics
– Any PC with the right software can run them
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
World Energy Database (cont’d)
• Put all available energy info into a collection of spreadsheets
• “Country” boundaries are useful convention to distinguish
geographical regions – nearly all energy statistics available on
per-country basis, may be aggregated to “region” and “world”
• Data from EIA, IEA, BP, O&G Journal, ASPO
• Decide on STANDARD SPREADSHEET FORMAT for the percountry spreadsheet (show example); year on vertical axis,
energy type horizontally. Example: Cell 57 J will always be
“Conventional oil production in 1957” for a country.
• Output from another model – for example, Mr. Bakhtiari’s
Wocap model – can be input to the spreadsheet and to the world
energy use model (see ER 56353)
• Any existing program, with simple interface software, can send
its output to spreadsheet or get its input from a spreadsheet
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
Spreadsheets, cont’d
• Once we do this right, we’re done; we should never have to go
back and re-enter historical data again, just update each year
• Getting the best agreed-on format at the beginning is critical
• We may convince other organizations to generate data in
compatible spreadsheet format, so it’s automatically ready for
direct program accessibility with no human intervention
• Per-country spreadsheet is “standard” resolution;
• May be easily aggregated into geographical regions, up to world
totals
• “Drill down” to finer resolution, down to individual fields or
wells – any cell value may come from another spreadsheet or
defined mathematical operation on other cells
• Build in “extension” codes to point to additional rows, columns,
or other spreadsheets, for expansion and unanticipated data types
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling
Relationship of Spreadsheets to
Modeling Programs
• This slide shows a block diagram illustrating how any
program can (with small i/f sw) output to a spreadsheet, or
input from a spreadsheet; spreadsheet values may also be
manually input
• Example inputs: ASPO data (model?); Bakhtiari model;
manually entered (mega-project database*); Tellus Institute
model for energy demand; may even have models that try
to project energy price as function of supply-demand
mismatch, energy supply as function of price, and
“demand destruction” as function of price
• LOPEX (Tobias Rehrl, IER) - oil supply & demand
with cost feedback
•
* Petroleum Review, Jan 2004
24 May 2004
World Energy Modeling