Transcript Top 3
2013 – The Year in Review 1 The Fleets - 2013 Type Western Built Eastern Built Turbojets Turboprops Total 22,113 1,007 23,120 4,797 1,001 5,898 Business Jets Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service 18,072 Accident Classifications Aircraft * Type: Turbojets, Turboprops, Piston, Helicopters * Size: Weight, number of seats * Use: Passenger, cargo, business, government * Western built or Eastern built How Measured * Per hours flown * Per departures * Per number of aircraft Classification * Hull Loss Accident * Total Loss Accident * Economic Loss Accident * Substantial Damage Accident * Fatal Accident * Major Accident Accident Classifications Aircraft * Type: Turbojets, Turboprops, Piston, Helicopters * Size: Weight, number of seats * Use: Commercial, business, government * Western built or Eastern built How Measured * Per hours flown * Per departures * Per number of aircraft Classification * Hull Loss Accident * Total Loss Accident * Economic Loss Accident * Substantial Damage Accident * Fatal Accident * Major Accident Accident Classifications Major Accident: An accident in which any of three conditions is met: 1. Aircraft destroyed, or 2. Multiple fatalities to occupants, or 3. One fatality and aircraft substantially damaged Major Accidents CFIT LOC Excursion Commercial Jets 1 January 2012 to 31 December 2012 Date Operator Aircraft Phase Fatal Approach 127 Mount Salak,Indonesia Enroute 45 20 April Bhoja Airlines 9 May Sukhoi 2 June Allied Air B-727 Accra, Ghana Landing 0 3 June Dana Air MD-83 Lagos, Nigeria Approach 153 30 Nov Aero Service IL-76 Brazzaville, Congo Go Around 7 25 Dec Air Bagan F-100 Heho, Myanmar Landing 1 29 Dec Red Wings Airlines TU-204 Moscow, Russia Landing 5 Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service B-737 Location SU-100 Islamabad, Pakistan Major Accidents CFIT LOC Excursion Commercial Jets 1 January 2013 to 28 October 2013 Date Operator Aircraft Location Phase Fatal Almaty, Kazakhstan Approach 21 Approach 0 29 January SCAT Air CRJ-200 13 April Lion Air B-737 Bali, Indonesia 29 April National Airlines B-747 Bagram, Afghanistan Takeoff 7 6 July Asiana Airlines B-777 San Francisco, USA Landing 3 14 August UPS A-300 Birmingham, AL, USA Approach 2 Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service Commercial Jet Major Accidents 2000 through 2012 20 19 15 16 13 19 19 13 17 17 14 13 10 11 5 7 2001 02 Eastern Built 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Major Accidents Business Jets 1 January 2013 to 28 October 2013 Date Operator Aircraft 20 February The Vein Guys Premier I 4 March Global Jet Luxembourg 17 March 7700 Enterprises 5 May Private 29 September CREW MMCLLC 18 October Dufrense, Inc Phase Fatal Thomson, GA, USA Landing 5 Premier I Annemasse, France Takeoff 2 Premier I South Bend, IA, USA Approach 2 Lear 60 Valencia, Venezuela Approach 2 Cessna CJ2 Santa Monia, CA, USA Landing 4 Citation I Derby, Kansas, USA Climb 2 Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service Location Business Jet Major Accidents 2000 through 2012 20 15 14 15 14 10 8 9 8 12 13 11 8 7 5 2001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 7 10 11 12 10.5 Business Jet Major Accident Rate 2000 through 2012 (Accidents per 1,000 Aircraft) 1.0 .75 8 Year Average: .67 .50 4 Year Average: .52 .25 2005 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service Major Accidents CFIT Commercial Turboprops (> 14 seats) 1 January 2013 to 28 October 2013 Date Operator Aircraft Location Phase Fatal Enroute 3 23 Januray Kenn Borek Air DHC-6 Terra Nova Bay, Antarctia 13 February South Airlines AN-24 Donetsk, Ukraine Approach 5 4 March CAA Fokker 50 Goma, DRC Approach 7 8 March ACE Air Cargo Beech 1900 Anchorage, Alaska, USA Approach 2 7 April Sahel Air Service Beech 1900 San Tome and Principe Approach 1 17 April Lao Air DHC-6 Vientiane-Wattay, Laos Takeoff 0 16 May Nepal Airlines DHC-6 Jomson, Nepal Landing 0 16 May Flying Dragon Aviation Y-12 Shenyang, China Climb 0 1 June Sita Air DO-228 Simikot, Nepal Landing 0 10 June Merpati Airlines MA-60 Kupang, Indonesia Landing 0 13 June SkyBahamas SAAB 340 Marsh Harbor, Bahamas Landing 0 29 June Batair Cargo EMB-110 Francistown, Botswana Approach 2 9 Sept CorpFlite DO-228 Vina Del Mar, Chile Approach 2 3 October Associated Aviation EMB-120 Lagos, Nigeria Takeoff 13 Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service Major Accidents Commercial Turboprops (> 14 seats) 1 January 2013 to 28 October 2013 (cont.) CFIT Date Operator Aircraft Location Phase Fatal 19 October Air Niugini ATR-42 Madang, Papua New Guinea Takeoff 0 Commercial Turboprop Major Accidents 2000 through 2012 40 39 35 30 31 33 31 25.9 (12 years) 25 20 29 24 22 24 21.4 (5 years) 21 15 21 20 23 20 17 10 5 2001 02 Eastern Built 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Approach and Landing Major Accidents Commercial Jets 1 January 2013 through 28 October 2013 Date Operator Aircraft Location Phase Fatal Almaty, Kazakhstan Approach 21 Approach 0 29 January SCAT Air CRJ-200 13 April Lion Air B-737 Bali, Indonesia 6 July Asiana Airlines B-777 San Francisco, USA Landing 2 14 August UPS A-300 Birmingham, AL, USA Approach 2 Controlled Flight into Terrain Major Accidents Commercial Jets 1 January 2013 to 28 October 2013 Date Operator Aircraft Location Phase Fatal Almaty, Kazakhstan Approach 21 Approach 0 29 January SCAT Air CRJ-200 13 April Lion Air B-737 Bali, Indonesia 6 July Asiana Airlines B-777 San Francisco, USA Landing 3 14 August UPS A-300 Birmingham, AL, USA Approach 2 Sources: Honeywell (Don Bateman), Ascend Over the last 7 years, 26 of 88 turboprop major accidents has been a CFIT– that’s 30%, or almost 1 of every 3 ! 5 Year Running Average Aircraft Upset Major Accidents Commercial Jets 1 January 2013 through 28 October 2013 Date 29 April Operator National Airlines Aircraft B-747 Location Bagram, Afghanistan Phase Fatal Takeoff 7 Aircraft Upset Major Accidents Commercial Jets 1999 through 2012 Number of Accidents 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 6 0 0 0 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Being Predictive In A Reactive World 22 Being Predictive • • Can we be predictive ? Will it be successful in reducing risk ? Safety Basics Safety = Risk Management * Eliminate risk * Reduce risk * Acknowledge risk Managing Risk Risk Management • Risk = Probability X Severity • Everything in life has risk • Manage Risk by modifying P or S The Key to Risk Management #1 Identify Hazards Being Efficient Want to reduce risk in the highest risk areas e.g. Prevent 1 accident in 10 years: good Prevent 10 accidents in 1 year: better Fatalities by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy Team (CICTT) Aviation Occurrence Categories Fatal Accidents – Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet – 2003 Through 2012 Reactive: Tending to react, characterized by reaction Proactive: Preparing for, intervening in, or controlling an expected occurrence or situation Predictive: Inference regarding a future event based on probability The Spectrum of Safety Fly-crash-fix-fly Identify hazards as they appear in accidents Reactive Study past accidents and incidents to identify hazards and reduce risk Utilize data from incidents and normal operations to identify trends and reduce risk before an accident happens Proactive Predictive Single Accident Data----------Consolidated Accident/Incident Data ------Accident/Incident/Operational Data Data Availability/Utilization Predicting • We can easily predict 90% of next year’s accidents - > 50% will be approach and landing - Half of those will be runway excursions - There will be at least 2 Jet and 4 Turboprop CFIT accidents - There will be 1 or 2 upset aircraft Predicting “Black swan” events - - TWA-800 BA-038 QF-32 Being Predictive • Can we be predictive ? Being Predictive • Can we be predictive ? YES Fatalities by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy Team (CICTT) Aviation Occurrence Categories Fatal Accidents – Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet – 2003 Through 2012 Safety Fatality Data - Circa 1992 Collision with terrain Approach and landing Loss of control Maintenance ATC systems Postcrash survival Inflight fire/smoke Engine failures Airport ground control Nonconfiguration takeoffs Windshear Deicing/anti-icing Rejected takeoff 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Trending • Can detect trends and future hazards * Systems * Locations * Procedures ASAP and FOQA Analysis of OAK Arrivals Receiving TAWS Alerts TCAS Hotspot Snap Shot Being Predictive • Will it be successful in reducing risk ? Predictive Challenge - Being able to get the support of the decision makers Keys to Predictive Success 1. Data to make the risk management case 2. Decision maker support Keys to Predictive Success A Change of Paradigm Outcome Based Event Based The Spectrum of Safety Fly-crash-fix-fly Identify hazards as they appear in accidents Study past accidents and incidents to identify hazards and reduce risk Reactive Utilize data from incidents and normal operations to identify trends and reduce risk before an accident happens Proactive Predictive Single Accident Data----------Consolidated Accident/Incident Data ------Accident/Incident/Operational Data Data Availability/Utilization Negative Outcome Negative Outcome(s) Events Challenges to being successful in predicting • Data X • Technology to utilize data X • Support of a reactive system TBA Major Accident Rate Accident rate per million departures Western-Built Commercial Jets 1999 – 2012 1.20 5 year running average 0.80 0.40 0.00 Major Accident Rate 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Ascend Aviation Safety 2013 Commercial jets on pace for another great year Business jets having a better than average year Turboprops are having an average year CFIT in both commercial jets and in commercial turboprops has returned as the leading killer We now have the capability to be predictive in our safety efforts – but is the system ready to take advantage of this capability ? 53