Transcript (logo-IPPF)
Independent Power Producers Forum
“Update on Pan Asian Energy Development”
A Presentation from
Independent Power Producers Forum (IPPF)
At e8-GEF-UNDESA-UNESCAP
“ Financing Sustainable Electrification”
South & South-East Asia Dialogues
Bangkok, Thailand, September 8-10, 2009
By
Joel B. Laykin
Secretary General
IPP’s a definition
Brief
History
IPPF’s
about.
Role – How it all came
Our Members - 1
Aggreko
Aon
AEI Asia Ltd
Asian Power
Solutions
Black & Veatch
Caterpillar Asia
Chevron International
City Power
CLP Power
CRA International
Cormetech Inc.
Diaz, Reus, Rolff &
Targ
Our Members - 2
1
DLA Piper
EESCO P2E2 HK
Emerson Process
ExxonMobil Energy
Gibson, Dunn &
Crutcher
Golden Concord
Indra Systems
Laykin
Communications
Litamos International
Marsh
Marubeni Asia
Mayer Brown JSM
Nemron Energy
O’Melveny & Myers
Our Members - 3
PB Power
PennWell Inc
PetroVietnam
Pinsent Masons
PUFFA Ltd
RSW Inc.
Solvina International
R.W. Beck Int’l
Simmons & Simmons
Vista International
WestLB AG
Worley Parsons
Independent Power Producers Forum
“Update on Pan Asian Energy
Development”
Presentation
at e8-GEF_UNDESA-UNESCAP
Financing Sustainable Electrification
South & South-East Asia Dialogues
Bangkok, Thailand
September 8th – 10th, 2009
1. Energy Values…The Challenge
(Basic Questions)
How
to change the behavior of seven
billion people?
How to deliver the “good life” without
ending life on this planet?
How to turn “Being Green” into being
profitable
2. Redefining GHG
CDM
vrs APP plus Kyoto plus Bali, plus
COP-15
Who’s
trading what and where?
“Carbon”
Currency
as the New International
3. The ABCD’s of Energy
A.
B.
C.
D.
Supply of Energy
Demand for Energy
Sources of Fuels
Uses of Fuels
4. Changing Concerns
– Some Solutions from East Asia
Metropolitan Asia leads the way with the
convergence of capital, technology and official
commitment
Hong Kong, Singapore and (supposedly)
Shanghai are key facilitators for every possible
element, company, sector in the power
generation industry in Asia (?)
Fuel supplies, transportation, improved
regulators
5. Marketplace Sophistication
Negatives
Positives
– the UNOCAL Debacle
- Future Gen
- PRC’s economy of scale
6. The “Gold Rush”
Fools
Over
-1
rush in where angels fear to tread
eighty companies
Western
“model” didn’t work. PRC simply
wasn’t ready ….. ..or willing
Divide and conquer
7. The “Gold Rush”
-2
The
exodus float out on a sea of red-ink
and “Rome is burning back home”
Exceptions
the course”
“Last
to the rule, a select few “stay
man standing”------ Colin Tam
(Nov, 2004)
8. Because …it’s there!
Why
If
why why do they do it?
you are a global player with no
substantial presence in Asia by 2020, you
are not a global player any more.
9. Some Interesting Quotes - 1
“
Stateside power companies dare not
look overseas because the analysts will
punish them”……John Easton (Mar 2004)
“And,
why should they? There is so much
low-hanging fruit to keep them busy in the
USA”……Bill Ruccius (Dec 2007)
10. Some More Interesting Quotes
-2
Expectation – “Everyone thought that the repeal
of “PUHCA” would unleash a new tidal wave of
power investment into Asia”…...Thomas
Bispham (Jun 2008)
Predictions – Perhaps in a generation, the big
U.S. investors, might return ……Robert Bestani
(Feb 2006)
11. The PUHCA Paradox
1935-2005,
seventy years of commercial
handcuffs
A good
A bad
-1
thing in 1935
thing by 1985
12. The PUHCA Paradox
-2
Long
delayed M & A “feeding frenzy…..in
slow motion
– “Within a decade, the approx
200 U.S. IPPs will be reduced to about
60-70 with a half dozen 1200 lbs Gorillas
ready to grow overseas”…..Joel Laykin
(Mar 2008)
Prediction
13. The Asian Way
China and India reach out, HK, Singapore, KL,
BKK, Tokyo and the Gulf reach in
The 1200 lbs gorillas will have to frolic in Africa
or South America
Asian players snapping up low and middle –
hanging fruit
14. Some more Over-Arching
Issues and Quotes
“The most important bilateral relationship in the
world relationship in the world today is that of
the USA and the PRC”……Secretary James
Baker III (Sept 2007)
“Energy security is the only thing people really
do something about”…..Bill Overholt (Oct 2009)
Independent Power Producers Forum
Thank You !
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