Transcript The STATE of POTOMAC

Dulles Area Transportation Association
Dulles Corridor Rail Association
The Washington Area Economy
and Outlook
Stephen S. Fuller, PhD
Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor
Director, Center for Regional Analysis
School of Public Policy, George Mason University
March 30, 2006
The Washington Economy:
Current Performance
Annual Job Change
1991 – 2005
Washington Metro
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
117
92
75
61
36 38
44
56
71 65
41
25
10
-8
-53
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
20
99
19
98
19
97
19
96
19
95
19
94
19
93
19
92
19
91
19
Source: BLS, CRA
Annual Job Change
Washington MSA
THOUSANDS
140
120
100
Jan =
+66,900
80
60
40
20
0
-20
06
nJa
05
nJa
04
nJa
03
nJa
02
nJa
01
nJa
00
nJa
99
nJa
Annual Change of Employed Residents
Washington MSA
THOUSANDS
140
120
Dec =
+98,300
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
06
nJa
05
nJa
04
nJa
03
nJa
02
nJa
01
nJa
00
nJa
99
nJa
Source: BLS Household Survey
Metro Comparisons
Job Change 1999-2005
15 Largest Metro Areas
Thousands
369
WASHINGTON
Miam i
253
Phoenix
221
Northern Virginia
187
New York
157
155
Los Angeles
Houston
118
Philadelphia
73
70
58
58
Dallas
Minneapolis
Atlanta
Seattle
22
Boston
-53
-68
-70
SF-Oakland
Chicago
Detroit
-200
-120
-100
0
100
200
300
400
15 Largest Job Markets
Job Change in 2005
Thousands
120
Washington +64,700
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
m
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15 Largest Job Markets
Ranked by Unemployment Rate
January 2006
%
U.S.
5.1%
3.1
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
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De
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Ch
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Ho
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Yo
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W
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Da
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at
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Data not seasonally adjusted
2004 - 2005
Job Change By Sector
Washington MSA
(Ranked by Size of Sector)
Total = 64,700
(000s)
26.9
Prof & Bus Svc
0.3
Federal
6.6
7.6
5.8
8.3
9.5
Educ & Hlth Svc
St & Loc Gov
Retail Trade
Leisure & Hosp
Const
1.1
Other Svc
3.6
Financial
Information
-6.1
Mfg
-0.9
2.7
Wlse Trade
Transp & Util
-10
-0.7
0
10
20
30
40
Share of Washington
Area Economy
1970-2005
50%
No. Virginia
45%
40%
35%
Sub MD
30%
District
25%
20%
1970
1975
1980
1985
Year
1990
1995
2000
2005
What is Different
About The Washington
Area Economy?
Total Federal Spending
Washington Metro Area
120
100
$ Billions
2005 =
$117.2 B,
+ 8.3%
80
60
40
20
0
05
20
03
20
01
20
99
19
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
19
89
19
87
19
85
19
83
19
Federal Spending by Type
1983 - 2004
60
Billions Current $
2005 =
$59.2 B
50
40
30
Wages & Salaries
20
10
All Other
0
05
20
03
20
01
20
99
19
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
19
89
19
87
19
85
19
83
19
Annual Change in
Federal Procurement Spending
Washington Metro Area
$ Billions
9
8
7
6
8.0
6.1
5
4
3
2
1
0
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04
2005 =
+ $6.6 B
Federal Spending in 2004:
U.S. and Washington MSA
($ in billions)
TOTAL
Amount
U.S.
$2,162.2
PROCUREMENT
% Chg
% Chg
Amount
03-04
03-04
4.9% $339.7
Washington
Metro
108.2 11.4%
% Of U.S. in 04
5.0%
3.8%
52.6 19.0%
15.5%
68.6% of the 2003-2004 increase in Federal
Procurement nationally was in the Washington MSA
Source: US Census, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
The Washington Area
Housing Market
Housing Price Index
Washington PMSA
1995
Q1=100
4th Quarter Each Year
300
1997-2005
= +153 %
250
200
1990-1997
=+ 3.7 %
150
100
50
0
04
20
01
20
98
19
95
19
92
19
89
19
86
19
83
19
80
19
77
19
Source: Federal Office of Housing Enterprise Oversight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Housing Price Index
Annual % Change
Washington PMSA
1995 Q1=100
4th Quarter Each Year
25
28-Yr Average (compound rate) = 7.0%
20
15
10
5
0
05
20
Source: Federal Office of Housing Enterprise Oversight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
00
20
95
19
90
19
85
19
80
19
-5
Metro Comparisons
Annual Percent Change in House Prices
2004 –2005 (3rd Quarter)
Percent
Phoenix
34.4
Miami
25.3
WASHINGTON
20.6
SF-Oakland
18.3
18.0
LA
Seattle
14.9
13.5
13.3
11.4
Philly
NY
San Diego
Chicago
Conforming
Mortgages Only
8.7
7.4
7.2
Minneapolis
Boston
Atlanta
5.4
4.5
4.1
3.0
Houston
Dallas
Detroit
0
10
20
Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
30
40
Metro Comparisons
Ratio of Median Value of New Housing to
Median Family Income – Q3 2005
LA
8.8
San Diego
7.8
7.6
SF-Oakland
New York
6.7
Boston
5.0
4.7
4.6
4.3
4.2
Miami
WASHINGTON
Seattle
Phoenix
Chicago
In 2000 Washington
was 2.8
3.4
3.3
3.1
Philly
Minneapolis
Dallas
2.7
2.7
2.5
Houston
Atlanta
Detroit
2.0
0
2
Source: NAHB/Wells Fargo, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
4
6
8
10
Average Sales Price
All Housing Types
Washington Metro
$
+ 119%
Since 1999
500,000
454,000
373,000
400,000
313,000
300,000
207,000 219,000
242,000
275,000
200,000
+5.8%
+10.5% +13.6%
2000
2001
+13.8%
+20.1%
+21.7%
2003
2004
2005
100,000
0
1999
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
2002
Average Sales Price Percent Change
Month-over-the-year, All types
2004-2005-2006
Washington MSA
%
28.1
30
25.5 25.0
25 22.2
20
23.4
22.9
19.8
25.0 23.9
20.3
16.6
15
18.1
12.4
9.1
10
5
Ju
l
Au
g
Se
p
O
ct
No
v
De
c
Ja
n
Fe
b
Fe
b
M
ar
Ap
r
M
ay
Ju
n
Ja
n
0
Average Days on the Market Change
Month-over-the-year, All Types
2004-2005-2006
Washington MSA
30
26
25
20
15
5
0
1
0
3
6
7
7
Ja
n
10
De
c
15
0
-4
-10
-3
Fe
b
M
ar
Ap
r
M
ay
Ju
n
Ja
n
-7
-5
37
21
Fe
b
-1
Ju
l
Au
g
Se
p
O
ct
No
v
-5
59
Total Unit Sales Change
Month-over-the-year, All Types
2004-2005-2006
Washington MSA
%
15
10
8.5
5
10.9
7.5
5.3
1.4
0
-5
-10
-1.1
-1.6
-6.5
-5.6
-15
-15.9
-20
Fe
b
Ja
n
De
c
Fe
b
M
ar
Ap
r
M
ay
Ju
n
Ju
l
Au
g
Ja
n
-25
Se
p
O
ct
No
v
-18.3
-20.5
-22.6
-23.1
MSA Total Housing Unit Permits
1980 - 2005
Average =
31,400/Year
50
Projected
Demand
2005-2007
60
40
30
20
10
0
07
20 6
0
20 5
0
20 4
0
20 3
0
20 2
0
20 1
0
20 0
0
20 9
9
19 8
9
19 7
9
19 6
9
19 5
9
19 4
9
19 3
9
19 2
9
19 1
9
19 0
9
19 9
8
19 8
8
19 7
8
19 6
8
19 5
8
19 4
8
19 3
8
19 2
8
19 1
8
19 0
8
19
Year
Dulles Corridor - Fairfax
Employment & Household
Forecast Growth, 2005 - 2030
THOUSANDS
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
155
58
45
Employment
Source: COG Round 7, CRA
Households
HH Elsewhere
Dulles Corridor - Loudoun
Employment & Household
Forecast Growth, 2005 - 2030
THOUSANDS
120
100
98
80
60
41
40
24
20
0
Employment
Source: COG Round 7, CRA
Households
HH Elsewhere
THOUSANDS
Dulles Corridor - Fairfax
& Loudoun
Employment & Household
Forecast Growth, 2005 - 2030
300
253
250
200
150
100
86
82
Households
HH Elsewhere
50
0
Employment
Source: COG Round 7, CRA
Looking Ahead
Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2010
Washington Area and Sub-state Portions
(Annual % Change)
%
7
6
5
NV
MSA
4
3
SM
DC
2
1
0
-1
10
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
20
Employment Change by
Sub-state Region (000s)
10-Yr
Avg.(1)
D.C.
3.9
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
7.5
8.0
7.5
6.0
4.0
S. MD
16.0
13.5 17.0 15.0 13.5 12.0
No. VA
34.9
43.3 41.5 38.5 35.0 31.5
REGION
54.8
64.3 65.5 59.5 53.5 47.5
2.1%
(1) 1995-2005
2.3%
2.2%
2.0%
1.8%
1.5%
Housing Outlook for 2006 and 2007
Market will continue to cool –
returning to “more Normal’:
• 2006 Prices will increase in the
range of 6% – 12% compared with
20+% in 2005
• Sales volume will drop back to
2002-2003 levels (98-100,000
transactions)
• Days on Market rising to 45-55
average
Local Threats
to the Forecast
Local Threats to the Forecast
•
•
•
•
•
•
Global / National Forces
Labor Force Availability, Quality and Cost
Transportation Cost / Congestion
Federal Spending and Procurement Policy
BRAC
Housing Affordability and Supply
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