Transcript Free Earth Observation Data on a Global Scale: A View from

Monitoring and Modelling
Deforestation in Amazonia
Gilberto Câmara, INPE, Brazil
Schermerhorn Lecture
Opening Academic Year, ITC, 2008
Can we avoid that this….
Source: Carlos Nobre (INPE)
Fire...
….becomes this?
Source: Carlos Nobre (INPE)
How much land change is happening?
Global
Change
Where are land changes taking place?
Who is causing the change?
What are the impacts of public policies?
What will happen in the future?
photo source: Edson Sano (EMBRAPA)
Agricultural Trade in Brazil
photo source: Edson Sano (EMBRAPA)
Cattle in Amazonia and Brazil
Unidade
Amazônia Legal
Brasil
Fonte: PAM - IBGE
1992
29915799
154,229,303
2001
51689061
176,388,726
%
72,78%
14,36%
Cattle in Amazonia and Brazil
Amazonia
Brasil
1992
2007
30 million
75 million
154 million
207 million
Processes of deforestation
Slash and burn
Progressive degradation
Slash and burn
Slash: start of dry season
Burn: end of dry season
Progressive degradation
Barlow and Peters (2008)
Selective logging
Wood extraction and burning
Further burning and pasture
Clear cut
Progressive degradation
T1 – Selective logging
T2 – Loss of smaller trees
T3 – Loss >50% of forest
T4 – Loss >90% of forest
Severely degraded forest
Pasture
Satellites for Forestry
100
Technology 2000
PAN CBERS-3
50
Technology 2008
CCD CBERS-2
Revisit (days)
Identification
Forest types
Technology 2015
CBERS-5
LANDSAT TM
10
Mapping
Deforestation
Amaz-1
AWFI CB3
5
CBERS-6
WFI CB2
A1-CB3
Detection
Deforestation
1
1
5
10
50
Resolution (m)
MODIS
100
1000
Deforestation as an event
Forest
Clear cut
Clear cut – end of deforestation
(objective and definitive)
Clear-cut deforestation monitoring
~230 scenes
Landsat/year
PRODES: Yearly detailed estimates of clear-cut areas
(220 LANDSAT, 500 CBERS, 50 DMC images)
Clear-cut deforestation monitoring
~230 scenes
Landsat/year
Taxa anual de desmatamento
PRODES: Yearly detailed estimates of clear-cut areas
Is deforestation an event or a process?
Clear cut
Forest
?
What happens between the pristine forest and the
clear cut?
Monitoring Deforestation in Amazonia
DETER: 15-day alerts of newly deforested large areas
Exploração exploitation
intensiva
Intensive
time
How far is detection time
from real-world time?
Perda
>50% do dossel
Loss >50%
DETER – alert 1
Perda>90%
>90% do dossel
Loss
DETER – alert 2
Corte
Clear raso
cut
Floresta
DETER – final alert
Altamira (Pará) – LANDSAT Image – 22 August 2003
Altamira (Pará) – MODIS Image – 07 May 2004
Imagem Modis de
2004-05-21, com
excesso de nuvens
Altamira (Pará) – MODIS Image – 21 May 2004
Altamira (Pará) – MODIS Image – 07 June 2004
Altamira (Pará) – MODIS Image – 22 June 2004
6.000 hectares deforested in one month!
Altamira (Pará) – LANDSAT Image – 07 July 2004
How hard is to use MODIS images to
detect deforestation?
Landsat/TM
Alerta MODIS
DETER nov-2007
August 2007
November 2007
Checking DETER´s data (February 2008)
Clear-cut for pasture
Monthly reports: May 2008
Clear-cut
Intensive impact
Moderate impact
Low impact
Error
TerraAmazon – open source software
for large-scale land change monitoring
116-112
116-113
Spatial database (PostgreSQL with
vectors and images)
166-112
2004-2008: 5 million polygons, 500 GB images
What’s coming next?
Scenario A
Scenario B
Scenario C
Scenario D
2)
Estradaskm
pavimentadas
em 2010
Decreasing
demand(15.000
Áreas protegidas em
1997
Estradas não pavimentadas
Novas áreas protegidas (2004)
Rios
principais
NewAções
protected
areas,
new
roads
Limites estaduais
de comando e controle
(locais de cumprimento
da lei)
Command
and control
actions Demanda: 15.000
25.000 km
2
Projected scenario for Amazonia 2020
Scenario A
Scenario B
Scenario C
% change 1997 a 2020:
Scenario D
Estradas pavimentadas (2010)
Estradas não pavimentadas
Rios principais
Limites estaduais
0.0 – 0.1
0.1 – 0.2
0.2 – 0.3
0.3 – 0.4
0.4 – 0.5
0.5 – 0.6
0.6 – 0.7
0.7 – 0.8
0.8 – 0.9
0.9 – 1.0
INPE´s results have worldwide impact
Society is watching!
International credibility helps…
“Today, Brazil’s monitoring system is
the envy of the world. INPE has its
own remote sensing satellite, a joint
effort with China, that allows it to
publish yearly totals of deforested
land that scientists regard as
reliable.”
TerraAmazon
...especially when real money is involved!
Until 2015, Norway will give up to US$ 1 billion to
reduce deforestation in the Amazon. Norway’s
contribution will depend on how successful Brazil will
be in reducing deforestation. Brazil has the largest rain
forest and one of the world’s most advanced systems
for surveillance of deforestation.