Transcript Document
Some Thoughts on IMW And Opportunity We represent a big area of the ANSS national program Bob Smith Univ. of Utah What We Are Up Against! $4.1B US, with only $0.2B in the Intermountain West FEMA Annualized Earthquake Loss Estimate (2000) IMW has twice the area of the west coast (lower 48) and some of the highest population growth centers in the entire U.S. We need to just justify a proposal with consensus and as an integrated regional program within a ANSS national scheme. Historic Seismicity of the Intermountain West Working Model For Normal-Faulting Earthquakes Properties: 1. Nucleation at the mid-crustal brittleductile transition, 2. 45° to 70° dipping, planar dip- and oblique-slip faulting, 3. Fault-bounded sedimentary basins, 4. Large dynamic stresses and large hanging-wall accelerations. What’s Driving Earthquakes Now! GPS velocity field (interpolated) Deviatoric Strain-rate Tensor Field We are different from California IMW unique earthquake shaking scenarios need normal-fault/basin data that ANSS can provide. Need S-wave data of fault-bounded valleys for local site effects, attenuation, etc. for dynamic ground shaking models with unexpectedly large PGAs and PGVs. (after Archuleta and Smith, 2006) IMW NEHRP and ANSS Earthquake Research Needs • Evaluate site-specific amplification on fault-bounded alluvial valleys and with appropriate stress drops and dynamic stress conditions. • Incorporate local site conditions, Vs30, and directivity in hazard assessments and scenarios. • Report earthquake catalogs using 3D velocity models. • Acquire strong to weak-ground-motions and develop attenuation relationships for extensional regimes. • Evaluate stochastic, characteristic, and cluster earthquake recurrence models. • Understand the relationship of contemporary deformation to inter-seismic loading and postseismic relaxation of active faults. • Integrate seismic, geologic, and geodetic for time-dependent seismic hazards focusing on broader geographic, including need urban assessments. • Take advantage of data acquired by EarthScope arrays, before they are gone! • Understand the physics of lithospheric extension and the mechanisms of normal faults. IMW & USArray Stations Earthquake Monitoring of the eastern Intermountain West, 2006 Seismic Networks: - Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology - University of Utah Seismograph Stations - Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Lab - USGS Teton Network - United States National Seismic Network - Northern Arizona University USArray Transportable Array Siting and Recon for the 2006-2008 Deployment - Non Reconned - Reconned USArray Array + Existing Networks, A Dense Array - Non Reconned - Reconned Integrated Intermountain Earthquake Monitoring An Unprecedented Opportunity - Regional Seismic Networks - USArray Seismographs - GPS Areas of possible TA adoptions (blue), 2006-2008, and A NSS Expansion (red) A Partial Solution: Adoption of selected ANSS stations ANSS broadband station with accelerometer Initial Outlay: Obtain a permit allow ing for continued operations One time equipment purchase - either: 1) Adopter replaces sensors/DAS/solar/comms 2) Adopter provides sensors/DAS/solar/comms for TA install$10,000 3) Adopt station as is: STS-2 $16,000 Comm and pow er Cell Accelerometer Construction costs Data logger $5,000 $3,000 Low $0 High 500 $0 0 CMG-3T $14,000 $16,000 $14,000 5000 3000 $5,000 $3,000 $5,000 $10,000 Total adopt as is: 5000 3000 10000 10000 $37,000 $28,500 Note: TA permits, excavates, constructs and installs at average $21,000 per site Annualized outlay: Communications: Monthly total: $10,000 $10,000 Conditions: 1) Adopter must obtain a permit f rom the landow ner for continued operation beyond the ANSS permit duration. 2) Data from the station must be made publically available via the USGS database and IRIS DMC A Partial Solution: Adoption of selected USArray stations ANSS has up to 80 of 400 existing instruments available and 60 have six channels for FBAs USArray Transportable Array Station Adoption Initial Outlay: Obtain a permit allow ing f or continued operations One time equipment purchase - either: 1) Adopter replaces sensors/DAS/solar/comms 2) Adopter provides sensors/DAS/solar/comms f or TA install$10,000 3) Adopt station as is: STS-2 sensor DAS Pw r & cables Demob credit Low $0 High 500 $0 0 CMG-3T $16,200 $9,200 $2,250 ($4,152) $12,300 $9,200 $2,250 ($4,152) $23,498 $19,598 $19,598 $23,498 This is without accelerometers Plus communications: Cell Radio to terminal Radio to VSAT Radio to internet Plus solar pow er Yes No $1,400 $4,700 $6,200 $4,400 $1,400 6200 $0 8300 Total adopt as is: $20,998 Note: TA permits, excavates, constructs and installs at average $21,000 per site $38,498 $8,300 $0 Monthly outlay: Permit Maintenance/repair/replacement Communications: Cell Radio to terminal Radio to VSAT Radio to internet 100 100 130 10 Monthly total: $0 $0 42 851 $10 130 $10 $1,023 Conditions : 1) Adopter must obtain a permit f rom the landow ner f or continued operation beyond the TA permit duration. 2) Data f rom the station must be made publically available via IRIS DMC Document by TA resulting from discussions of TA, USGS and NSF being prepared. Recommendations Develop a unified plan (patterned after CISN) that documents a consensus of needs for all of ANSS-IMW with integrated recording and archiving. Highlight the importance of IMW as a key element of the national ANSS network. Point out the parallel science needs to improve earthquake science and the ANSS network. Emphasize partnerships that can benefit ANSS with University matching funds and direct support, state funds, EarthScope, USGS, other agencies, etc. Make explicit plans for new ANSS stations and for USArray adoptions. Develop data access for non-seismological users: engineering-science and for general educational and outreach. Catch 22 -- University faculty are restricted from making direct congressional contacts for lobbying purposes, particularly if funds are already being sought for parallel purposes.