Transcript Exponential smoothing: The state of the art Everette S

Exponential smoothing:
The state of the art – Part II
Everette S. Gardner, Jr.
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Exponential smoothing:
The state of the art – Part II
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History
Methods
Properties
Method selection
Model-fitting
Inventory control
Conclusions
Timeline of Operations Research (Gass,
2002)
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Expected value, B. Pascal
Normal distribution, A. de Moivre
Bayes Rule, T. Bayes
Lagrangian multipliers, J. Lagrange
Method of Least Squares, C. Gauss, A. Legendre
Solution of linear equations, C. Gauss
Markov chains, A. Markov
Queuing theory, A. Erlang
The term OR first used in British military applications
Transportation model, F. Hitchcock
U.K. Naval Operational Research, P. Blackett
Neural networks, W. McCulloch, W. Pitts
Game theory, J. von Neumann, O. Morgenstern
Exponential smoothing, R. Brown
Exponential smoothing at work
“A depth charge has a
magnificent laxative
effect on a submariner.”
Lt. Sheldon H. Kinney,
Commander,
USS Bronstein (DE 189)
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Forecast Profiles
N
None
N
None
A
Additive
DA
Damped Additive
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Multiplicative
DM
Damped Multiplicative
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A
Additive
M
Multiplicative
Damped multiplicative trends (Taylor,
1.00 0.95
0.90
2002)
4,000
Damping
paramete
r
3,000
2,000
1,000
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0.85
Variations on the standard methods
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Multivariate series (Pfefferman & Allen, 1989)
Missing or irregular observations (Wright,1986)
Irregular update intervals (Johnston, 1993)
Planned discontinuities (Williams & Miller, 1999)
Combined level/seasonal component (Snyder & Shami, 2001)
Multiple seasonal cycles (Taylor, 2003)
Fixed drift (Hyndman & Billah, 2003)
Smooth transition exponential smoothing (Taylor, 2004)
Renormalized seasonals (Archibald & Koehler, 2003)
SSOE state-space equivalent methods (Hyndman et al., 2002)
Smoothing with a fixed drift
(Hyndman & Billah, 2003)
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Equivalent to the “Theta method”?
(Assimakopoulos and Nikolopoulos, 2000)
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How to do it
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When to do it
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Set drift equal to half the slope of a regression on time
Then add a fixed drift to simple smoothing, or
Set the trend parameter to zero in Holt’s linear trend
Unknown
Adaptive simple smoothing (Taylor,
2004)
 Smooth transition exponential smoothing (STES)
is the only adaptive method to demonstrate
credible improved forecast accuracy
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The adaptive parameter changes according to a
logistic function of the errors
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Model-fitting is necessary
Renormalization of seasonals
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Additive (Lawton, 1998)
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Without renormalization
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Renormalization of seasonals alone
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Forecasts are biased unless renormalization is done
every period
Multiplicative (Archibald & Koehler, 2003)
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Level and seasonals are biased
Trend and forecasts are unbiased
Competing renormalization methods give forecasts
different from each other and from unnormalized
forecasts
Archibald & Koehler (2003) solution
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Additive and multiplicative renormalization
equations that give the same forecasts as
standard equations
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Cumulative renormalization correction factors for
those who wish to keep the standard equations
Continental Airlines Domestic Yields
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Model
Restarted
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0.10
Jan-00
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Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Standard vs. state-space methods
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Trend damping
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Multiplicative seasonality
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Standard: Seasonal component depends on level
State-space: Independent components
Model fitting
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Standard: Immediate
State-space: Starting at 2 steps ahead
Standard: Minimize squared errors
State-space: Minimize squared relative errors if
multiplicative errors are assumed.
Properties
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Equivalent models
Prediction intervals
Robustness
Equivalent models
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Linear methods
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All methods
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ARIMA
DLS regression
Kernel regression (Gijbels et al.,1999; Taylor, 2004)
MSOE state-space models (Harvey, 1984)
SSOE state-space models (Ord et al.,1997)
Analytical prediction intervals
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Options
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Empirical evidence
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SSOE models (Hyndman et al., 2005)
Model-free (Chatfield & Yar, 1991)
None
Empirical prediction intervals
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Options
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Chebyshev distribution (fitted errors) (Gardner, 1988)
Quantile regression (fitted errors) (Taylor & Bunn, 1999)
Parametric bootstrap (Snyder et al., 2002)
Simulation from assumed model (Bowerman, O’Connell,
& Koehler, 2005)
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Empirical evidence
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Limited, but encouraging
Robustness
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Many equivalent models for each method
(Chatfield et al., 2001; Koehler et al., 2001)
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Simple ES performs well in many series that
are not ARIMA (0,1,1) (Cogger,1973)
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Aggregated series can often be approximated
by ARIMA (0,1,1) (Rosanna & Seater, 1995)
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Robustness (continued)
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Exponentially declining weights are robust
(Muth, 1960; Satchell & Timmerman, 1995)
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Additive seasonal methods are not sensitive
to the generating process (Chen,1997)
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The damped trend includes numerous
special cases (Gardner & McKenzie,1988)
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Automatic forecasting with the damped additive
trend
 = .84
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 = 1.00
Summary of 66 empirical studies,
1985-2005
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Seasonal methods rarely used
Damped trend rarely used
Multiplicative trend never used
Little attention to method selection
But exponential smoothing was robust,
performing well in at least 58 studies
Method selection
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Benchmarking
Time series characteristics
Expert systems
Information criteria
Operational benefits
Identification vs. selection
Benchmarking in method selection
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Methods should be compared to reasonable
alternatives
Competing methods should use exactly the
same information
Forecast comparisons should be genuinely
out of sample
Method selection: Time series
characteristics
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Variances of differences
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(Shah,1997)
Considered only simple smoothing and a linear trend
Should be tested with an exponential smoothing
framework
Regression-based performance index
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Seemed a good idea at the time
Discriminant analysis
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(Gardner & McKenzie,1988)
(Meade, 2000)
Considered every feasible time series model
Should be tested with an exponential smoothing
framework
Method selection: Expert systems
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Rule-based forecasting
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Original version (Collopy & Armstrong, 1992)
Automatic version (Vokurka et al., 1996)
Streamlined version (Adya et al., 2001)
Other rule-induction systems
(Arinze,1994; Flores & Pearce, 2000)
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Expert systems are no better than aggregate
selection of the damped trend alone (Gardner, 1999)
Method selection: AIC
Damped trend vs. state-space models selected by AIC:
Average of all forecast horizons
Damped trend
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State-space
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1,001 M3 Ann. M3 Qtr. M3 Mon.
MAPE
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Asymmetric MAPE
Method selection:
Empirical information criteria (EIC)
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Strategy: Penalize the likelihood by linear
and nonlinear functions of the number of
parameters (Billah et al., 2005)
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Evaluation: EIC superior to other
information criteria, but results are not
benchmarked
Method selection: Operational benefits
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Forecasting determines inventory costs,
service levels, and scheduling and
staffing efficiency.
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Research is limited because a model of
the operating system is needed to project
performance measures.
Method selection: Operational benefits
(cont.)
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Manufacturing (Adshead & Price, 1987)
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U.S. Navy repair parts (Gardner, 1990)
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Producer of industrial fasteners (£4 million
annual sales)
Costs: holding, stockout, overtime
50,000 inventory items
Tradeoffs: Backorder delays vs. investment
Savings: $30 million (7%) in investment
Average delay in filling backorders
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Random walk
Backorder days
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Linear trend
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Simple smoothing
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Damped trend
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Inventory investment (millions)
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Inventory analysis: Packaging materials for
snack-food manufacturer
$2,500,000
$2,000,000
Actual Inventory
from subjective
forecasts
$1,500,000
$1,000,000
$500,000
$0
Target maximum
inventory based on
damped trend
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Month
Month
Monthly Usage
Method selection: Operational benefits
(cont.)
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Electronics components (Flores et al., 1993)
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RAF repair parts (Eaves & Kingsman, 2004)
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967 inventory items
Costs: holding cost vs. margin on lost sales
11,203 inventory items
Tradeoffs: inventory investment vs. stockouts
Savings: £285 million (14%) in investment
Forecasting for inventory control:
Cumulative lead-time demand
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SSOE models yield standard deviations of
cumulative lead-time demand (Snyder et al., 2004)
Differences from traditional expressions (such
as s Lead time ) are significant
Standard deviation multipliers, α = 0.30
Traditional
Correct
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Lead time
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5
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Forecasting for inventory control:
Cumulative lead-time demand (cont.)
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The parametric bootstrap (Snyder et al., 2002)
can estimate variances for:
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Any seasonal model
Non-normal demands
Intermittent demands
Stochastic lead times
Forecasting for inventory control:
Intermittent demand
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Croston’s method (Croston, 1972)
Mean demand
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Smoothed nonzero demand
Smoothed inter-arrival time
Bias correction (Eaves & Kingsman, 2004;
Syntetos & Boylan, 2001, 2005)
Mean demand x (1 – α / 2)
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Forecasting for inventory control:
Intermittent demand (continued)
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There is no stochastic model for Croston’s
method (Shenstone & Hyndman, 2005)
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Many questionable variance expressions in the
literature
The state-space model for intermittent series requires
a constant mean inter-arrival time (Snyder, 2002)
Why not aggregate the data to eliminate zeroes?
Progress in the state of the art, 19852005
 Analytical variances are available for most
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methods through SSOE models.
Robust methods are available for multiplicative
trends and adaptive simple smoothing.
Croston’s method has been corrected for bias.
Confusion about renormalization of seasonals has
finally been resolved.
There has been little progress in method selection.
Much empirical work remains to be done.
Suggestions for research
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Refine the state-space framework
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Validate and compare method selection
procedures
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Add the damped multiplicative trend
Damp all trends immediately
Test alternative method selection procedures
Information criteria – Benchmark the EIC
Discriminant analysis
Regression-based performance index
Suggestions for research (continued)
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Develop guidelines for the following choices:
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Damped additive vs. damped multiplicative trend
Fixed vs. adaptive parameters in simple smoothing
Fixed vs. smoothed trend in additive trend model
Standard vs. state-space seasonal components
Additive vs. multiplicative errors
Analytical vs. empirical prediction intervals
Conclusion
“The challenge for future research is to
establish some basis for choosing among
these and other approaches to time series
forecasting.” (Gardner,1985)
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