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Scientific Advice for the Management of Transboundary Marine Eutrophication Characteristics of the Baltic Enclosed and shallow – Long residence (memory) of pollutants – All countries interdependent – Large advective (water flow) inputs to coast from offshore and between basins Non point nutrient sources dominate Large regional variations in – Sources (natural and anthropogenic) – Socio-economics Management objective “a healthy Baltic Sea environment with diverse biological components functioning in balance, resulting in a good ecological status and supporting a wide range of sustainable human economic and social activities” (HELCOM’s strategic vision) The role of scientific decision support There is a mismatch between the kind of ecosystem people want and what is actually attainable What is attainable is also dependent on costs and how long we are willing to wait There is a large risk to implement inefficient and expensive measures – science can help us avoid this Science can describe these choices and help us set realistic environmental goals what are actually attainable The ultimate goal for linking science & management Costs for nutrient reductions Environmental state The cost for improvements in the Baltic will follow the upper curve without a good understanding of cost effective measures. With good science, we will provide options to reduce cost to the lower curve. Costs, EURO Key Variables 1 Nutrient inputs Calculate the cost for nutrient reductions at the source from different measures Retention Key Variables 2 Nutrient inputs Calculate the retention of nutrients from different sources in drainage basins Retention Costs, EURO Key Variable 1+2 Calculate to costs of nutrient reductions to the coast Nutrient inputs Cost, Euro Nutrient inputs Nutrient inputs Key Variables 3 Nutrient inputs Calculate the nutrient concentrations in different sea areas in relation to inputs B Nutrient concentration Key Variables 3 B Nutrient concentration Nutrient concentration Nutrient inputs Relate nutrient concentrations to specific environmental conditions Environmental state Nutrient inputs Nutrient inputs B Nutrient concentration Environmental state Nutrient concentration Costs, EURO Costs, EURO Linking Key Variables A Environmental state Basic Modules (Changing..) NUTRIENT MODEL LOAD NUTRIENT BUDGETS FISH WEB MODEL RESULTS COST CALCULATIONS EMEP LOAD http://WWW.MARE.SU.SE