Transcript Slide 1
Space Weather Workshop, Boulder, CO, April 29, 2008 Real-time Radiation Storm Forecasting with SOHO/COSTEP Presenter: Charles P. Holmes1 for Arik Posner1,2, Bernd Heber3, Oliver Rother3, and Reinhold Müller-Mellin3 1NASA HQ, SMD Heliophysics Division 2 Southwest Research Institute 3University of Kiel, Germany COSTEP+ Forcasting Team: R. MuellerMellin COSTEP Operations O. Rother A. Posner Real-time Forecasting ImplemenTechnique tation B. Heber COSTEP PI SOHO/COSTEP 1:1 Model Thanks also to SOHO/SOC and CCMC at GSFC and Univ. Turku, Finland NASA Heliophysics Division Objectives The Problem: Exposure Risk from Fast-Rising Solar Proton Events Lower Limit for Acute Radiation Sickness from 1h Exposure From Kim, Hu, and Cucinotta, AIAA, 2005 New Space Weather Forecasting Tool from Heliophysics Science Program EVA Abort Command Issued Solar electrons reach the Earth-moon system about one hour before the solar proton radiation hazard arrives. New research has shown that electrons traveling at the speed of light are always present in solar particle eruptions. These electrons – traveling much faster than the hazardous solar energetic protons – follow the magnetic lines of force from the Sun to the Earth. Therefore, they can be used as a reliable early warning sign of hazardous radiation ahead. Even in the case of the fastest-rising major proton event on record (Jan. 20, 2005), the electron precursor signal was detected 20-25 minutes in advance. EVA Abort Complete This is an important example of the potential for further rapid transition of SMD Research to SOMD/ESMD Operations – May 2007 to Feb 2008 – this new prediction tool has entered V&V by the JSC/SRAG for future Shuttle, ISS, and CEV operations. Electron Intensity A one-hour warning has the potential to provide the advanced notice needed for efficient EVA planning. SOHO COSTEP: Slow Fast Electron Rise Parameter Empirical Forecasting Matrix Translates Solar Electron Data into +1h Proton Hazard Forecast (Posner, Space Weather, 2007) Forecasting Results space radiation analysis group Also: Combined Models Posner / Townsend AW AW FW AW FW+AW Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center FW Zoom into 16-40 MeV Proton Forecast Black: Forecast Red: Observations Blue: Hazard Warnings Here: ~20 Minutes Warning with Intensity-Time Profile Prediction Posner, Space Weather, May 2007 Archived Data Stats 2003-2007 24 Proton Events beyond Threshold 10/11 Prompt Events Forecast (91%) with 122 min average warning time 9/13 Delayed Events Forecast (69%) Overall: 79%, 195 min average warning time 13 False Warning Series (10 from Decreases) SOHO COSTEP Real-Time Data Feb. 7-Apr. 23, 2008 In Place for 76.2 Days Live: 33.3 Days (43.7%; Main Limitation: SOHO DSN Downlink) Single False Warning 0 Proton Events beyond Threshold 1 False Warning (April 7, Radio Frequency Interference?) 1 Software Glitch (April 18, 60 Forecast Hrs Lost) Glitch SOHO COSTEP http://www-etph.physik.uni-kiel.de/missions/soho/costep/realtime/forecast/ Summary • First SPE Ion Intensity-Time Profile Forecasts • Forecasting Successful because SPE Electron and Proton Acceleration & Transport Closely Linked • 4.5 Year Verification Highly Successful for Prompt SPEs • Implementation with SOHO Complete, on Console at JSC/SRAG since Launch of STS-122, February 2008 • URL: http://www-etph.physik.unikiel.de/missions/soho/costep/realtime/forecast/ • Not Designed to Forecast Slow-rising (“Delayed”) Events: Nowcasting • Flux Decrease FW Problem to be Addressed: no Flares!