Janusz Cofala and Stefan Astrom

Data sources for GAINS

Outline

Sources of data on: • activity scenarios (energy, process, agriculture and VOC) • emission factors • emission control technologies (efficiencies and costs) • baseline legislation and MTRF legislation • dispersion of air pollutants • sensitivity of ecosystems and humans to air pollution

Activity data

EU countries: – PRIMES Baseline 2009 for energy, mobile and processes – CAPRI scenario for agriculture – national activity pathways – VOC national data (bilateral consultations from CAFE Project with updates, submissions of industrial associations)

Activity data

Non-EU EECCA countries: Region Albania Balarus Bosnia Herzegovina Croatia Macedonia Moldova Russia Serbia-Montenegro Ukraine Agriculture CAPRI FAO CAPRI CAPRI CAPRI FAO FAO CAPRI FAO Energy, mobile, process WEO 2009 WEO 2009 WEO 2009 PRIMES 2009 PRIMES 2009 WEO 2009 WEO 2009 WEO 2009 WEO 2009 VOC CAFE CAFE CAFE NATIONAL CAFE CAFE CAFE CAFE CAFE Data for historic years consistent – to an extent possible - with international statistics (UN, OECD/IEA). Data for some countries verified by national experts

Emission factors and control technologies

Emission factors

• fuel characteristics • results of measurements (international and national studies – if representative enough) • emission models for transport (COPERT IV) Control technologies (reduction efficiencies and costs) • BREF documents • work of Expert Group on Techno-Economic Issues (EGEI) • other literature

Country-specific cost parameters

What is country-specific?

• wages • electricity and fuel prices (net of taxes) • costs of waste disposal etc.

Data sources • inputs by national experts • international and national statistics (UN, OECD, IEA) • if details not available, correlation with GDP

Pollution dispersion

• based on EMEP Eulerian model (includes emissions by SNAP 1 sector for 40+ regions, 50*50 km grid) • several runs for different emission levels used for development of linear pollution transfer coefficients (country to grid) • for main scenarios validity of assumptions on linearity checked ex post by full EMEP model runs • for majority of cases linear approximation good enough

Current legislation measures - European Union

EU legislation on stationary sources plus national legislation (if stricter), e.g.: • S in Liquid Fuels Directive, • Industrial Emissions Directive, • Landfill Directive, • Legislation of agricultural emissions • Legislation on mobile sources: – EURO stages for road transport and equivalents for non-road – directives on fuel quality for mobile sources

Current legislation measures – EECCA and Balkan countries

• national emission limit values (ELVs) on stationary combustion and process sources • countries of the European Energy Community (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia): – ELVs on stationary sources as in the EU Large Combustion Plant Directive (from 2018) – S in Liquid Fuels Directive (from 2012) • mobile sources: – Euro stages for transport sources (source: national data, Diesel Net database) – corresponding fuel quality improvement – includes country-specific assumptions on vehicle turnover and imports of used cars

MTFR legislation

• BAT for each sector – Includes constraints on applicability • structure and turnover of capital stock, • specificity of applied production technologies • Legislation on mobile sources as in the “current legislation” – no accelerated scrappage – no retrofits (e.g., fitting of particle filters) • MTFR calculated with GAINS optimization routine • Results put back to GAINS online – controls specified only for activity/sector combinations that exist in a given pathway

Damage to ecosystems from air pollution Methodology developed by the CLRTAP Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE). Ecosystem-specific critical loads and levels for: •forest soils (acidification and eutrophication) •semi-natural vegetation (eutrophication, species richness, acidification) •natura 2000 areas (acidification and eutrophication) •agricultural crops •acidification of surface waters •vegetation damage from ground-level ozone (AOT 40)

Damage to human health from air pollution (1)

Assessment consistent with EC4MACS Project methodologies, follows World Health Organization recommendations Damage caused by PM2.5 concentrations (primary PM and aerosols) •WHO relative risk factors from cardiovascular and lung deseases •impacts expressed as loss of life expectancy •only mortality impacts on adults (>30 years) included in GAINS • uses UN ”life tables” and population forecasts up to 2050 • concentrations for 50*50 km grid cells, for urban areas ”city-delta” correction included •benefits assessment (done by AEA Technology) includes also impacts on morbidity and infant mortality

Damage to human health from air pollution (2)

Risk from ground-level ozone (SOMO35) •premature deaths included in GAINS •benefits assessment includes also morbidity impacts (respiratory hospital admissions, restricted activity days, respiratory medication use)

Detailed material • EGTEI work ( http://www.citepa.org/forums/egtei/egtei_index.htm

) • BREF documents ( http://eippcb.jrc.es/reference / • IIASA reports on methodology and data for individual pollutants ( http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/index.php/publications/reports n/reports-2 ) • GAINS online ( http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/ )