Transcript Slide 1

Launch of Regional
Human Development
Report 2011—Kiev
Why Kiev; acknowledgements

Ukraine—natural place for the Russian language launch:
◦ Ukraine was one of the countries covered by the regional project
◦ The team involved in the national study embarked on a major effort of
expanding it into a deep and srious study published as NHDR for Ukraine
◦ Clear policy commitment to social inclusion and human development agenda
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Report is the fruit of very hard work, with support of many dedicated
people—we thank them all
In particular, large team of authors and national teams in the 6
countries—many are here, others follow the launch on-line.
Human Development and Social Inclusion
Complementary, people-centered concepts; evolved in parallel so far
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Human development is the goal to achieve—people living long, healthy and
creative lives they have reason to value;
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Social inclusion is the means to get there; and
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Social exclusion—the existence of cumulative deprivations in three dimensions—is
the obstacle to be overcome to achieve the goal.
Overall objectives of the Report
Understand the dynamics of social exclusion, inclusion and human
development in the region since 1991
Provide tools for assessing levels and intensity of social exclusion,
detecting its main causes and the risks
Identify determinants of social exclusion in individual dimensions
Formulate realistic, evidence-based policy responses at
central and local levels to effectively address it
To achieve these objectives, we
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Define the chain of social exclusion: risks interacting with drivers and
local characteristics to result in exclusion status
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Develop an operational methodology for social exclusion measurement
and monitoring at national and local levels
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Analyze patterns of exclusion
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Provide policy recommendations rooted in local specifics to enhance
social inclusion.
Exclusion, not multi-dimensional poverty
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Same methodology as MPI, but different application
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Social exclusion: accumulation of deprivations
-Dynamic process: interaction of exclusion risks, drivers, local
context; feedback loops
-Relative (but not subjective): deprivations are measured
relative to others in same society; but the measure is not about feelings
of deprivation—it is about not having access to basic consumption
basket, public services or social networks.
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The social exclusion chain
Individual characteristics
gender, ethnicity, health status
Feedback to traits
Positive: empowered, educated,
Negative – accident as
consequence of informal labor
Inclusion
Drivers of
Exclusion
Local context:
rural, mono-town
Positive reinforcing
feedback i.e. vote,
voice or action
Institutions, policies and values
Negative feedback i.e.
informality,
unemployment
Exclusion
The report’s quantitative underpinnings
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Social Exclusion Survey in 6 countries of the region (FYROM,
SRB, UKR, MVA, TAJ, KAZ)
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Locality-specific data for contextualization of survey
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Secondary data on all countries of the region
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Development and other indicators relevant to social exclusion
and inclusion
Quantifying
exclusion
social
Multidimensional Poverty Approach
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Same UNDP/OPHI approach as used for Global HDR 2010 for poverty
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‘Dual cutoff’ method:
 within dimension: based on deprivation with respect to given dimension
 across dimensions: overall threshold (number of deprivations) beyond which a person is
considered socially excluded
Three dimensions of social exclusion (with
8 indicators each):
Economic: Deprivation in
◦ incomes, basic needs,
◦ access to employment, financial services;
◦ material needs and lack of amenities;
◦ housing and ICT-related exclusion.
Social services: Access to and affordability of
◦ education and health services;
◦ other public services, such as public utilities.
Participation: Deprivation in
◦ political, cultural and social participation;
◦ political, cultural and social support networks.
Tough measurement question:
How many deprivations does it
take to be excluded?
Threshold-number of deprivations, a matter of
choice
Our survey: 9
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The cut-off line affects the share of excluded, but not
countries’ relative standing
Social exclusion headcount for three different thresholds
Percentage of people considered 'socially excluded'
for each cutoff value
100
90
80
threshold
70
Kazakhstan
Moldova
60
FYR
Macedonia
Serbia
50
40
Tajikistan
30
Ukraine
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
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14
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Deprivation cutoff value
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18
19
20
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Share of socially excluded and the social
exclusion index
Kazakhstan Moldova
FYR
Macedonia
Serbia
Tajikistan
Ukraine
Magnitude of social exclusion at cut-off 9
(A) Social exclusion
headcount
(B) Average number of
deprivations experienced
by the socially excluded
(C) Intensity - average
number of deprivations
experienced by the
socially excluded as
percentage of total (24)
Multidimensional
Exclusion Index (MEI) =
(A) *(C)
32%
40%
12%
19%
72%
20%
10.5
11.0
10.8
10.8
11.1
10.4
44%
46%
45%
45%
46%
43%
14
18
5
8
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Highly even contribution of individual
dimensions to overall exclusion
A. Economic
exclusion
Kaz.
34%
FYR
Moldova Macedonia
32%
30%
Serbia Tajikistan Ukraine
31%
39%
28%
B. Exclusion from
social services
34%
39%
38%
38%
34%
36%
C. Exclusion from
participation in civic
and social life and
networks
32%
30%
32%
31%
27%
36%
Main findings:
Individual characteristics
and exclusion status
Social exclusion and age: children and
elderly are most affected
Percentage of socially excluded people
Social exclusion of children, youth and elderly
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Ka za khs tan
Mol dova
FYR
Ma cedoni a
Serbi a
Ta ji ki s tan
Ukra i ne
Chi l dren (0-14 yea rs )
Youth (15-29 yea rs )
Adul ts (30-64 yea rs )
El derl y (>65 yea rs )
Si x-country
a vera ge
Employment is crucial to avoid social
exclusion
Percentage of socially excluded people
Social exclusion of the unemployed
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Ka za khs tan
Mol dova
FYR
Ma cedoni a
Unemployed
Serbi a
Ta ji ki s tan
National average
Ukra i ne
Low education level raises social exclusion
Certain groups are more excluded (Serbia
Survey)
Higher Human Development Index
correlates closely with higher social inclusion
Drivers of exclusion
and their implications
for exclusion status
Poor governance goes closely with exclusion
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Barriers to business exacerbate
social exclusion
A better functioning labour market
enhances social inclusion
Informal employment brings dubious
benefits
Less tolerant values enhance
social exclusion
Specifics of local context
and its implications
for social exclusion
Tolerance of corruption heightens
social exclusion
Location matters greatly!
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Social exclusion is particularly high in
mono-company towns
The quality of local infrastructure also
affects social exclusion
Lasting effects of environmental disasters
in yet another area: social exclusion
Towards an ‘individualized approach’
to social exclusion
Integrating individual risks,
specifics of local context, and values.
Different combinations of individual risks, drivers and local context
results in different levels of social exclusion
Individual vulnerabilities (like
disability) interact with local
conditions and amplify exclusion
Average
Average risk of exclusion in the region
hides significant territorial differences…
Capital or
economic center
Small town
Village
Disabled doesn’t mean
automatically excluded!
Local conditions matter
Combination of risks, concluded
In sum: both who you are and where you live matter
If you are young person, with low education, living in a village, or a town with a single
company—you face a high risk of exclusion…
…and secondary education doesn’t help much in these conditions…
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…while vibrant business environment makes a lot of difference
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…economic centers offer more opportunities (even with low education)
+
+ + +
…and much more if you are educated
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Conclusions
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Transition to a market economy in the region left some out in the cold.
Reforms have not always helped to improve lives.
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It could be anyone! Everyone is at risk of being left out of society, not only
marginalized groups.
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Income doesn’t tell the whole story ! To be part of society, you also need
access to public services, and opportunities to participate in community life.
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Attitudes, local economy characteristics, policies matter
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No single policy can eliminate exclusion - Policies need to be comprehensive
to break the social exclusion chain
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Recommendations
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Genuine, sustained commitment to social inclusion with clear
targets
Preventive focus on individual vulnerabilities
Clear focus on people’s capacities
Addressing institutional drivers is crucial
Match this with deliberate efforts to change mindsets
UNDP can help:
◦ We can generate projectable ideas
◦ We can implement them region-wide using our country office network, and
partners