National Academy of Social Insurance

Cheryl Atkinson January 2006

A Changing Economy

 Decline in manufacturing employment as a percent of total employment.

 More permanent vs. temporary layoffs.

 Average duration higher even during economic expansions.

Manufacturing Employment as a Percent of Total Employment

40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 39 45 51 57 63 69 Year 75 81 87 93 99 05

Composition of Employment

5% 5% 2% 11% 29% 42% 24% 82%

1935 Agriculture Manufacturing Service 2005 Other

Job Losers Not on Layoff as % of Total Unemployed

% 50 40 30 20 10 0 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05

Average Duration of Persons Collecting UI Benefits

Weeks 18.0

16.0

14.0

12.0

Average Duration (L) TUR (R) 10.0

73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 Calendar Year 0 6 4 2 % 12 10 8

Reemployment Initiatives

 Reemployment and Eligibility Assessments (REAs)  Profiling evaluation and improvement  AutoCoder

Reemployment & Eligibility Assessments

 Reemployment & Eligibility Assessments (REAs):  Promote quicker reemployment of UI beneficiaries; and  Verify continued eligibility for benefits, reducing overpayments.

Reemployment & Eligibility Assessments

 In person interviews periodically in One-Stop Centers that include:  UI eligibility review  Labor market information  Work-search plan  Referral to reemployment services/training when needed.

OR WA

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ID MT WY CA

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NV

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UT AZ NM CO AK HI NE TX ND

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SD KS OK MN

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REA Grants MA CT

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WI NY MI VT IA PA IL IN OH

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WV MO VA KY MD DC AR TN

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SC NC ME NJ DE RI NH MS AL GA LA

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FL States receiving REA Grants

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REA Grant States Included in Study PR VI

Reemployment State Profiling Models

 Added to Social Security Act in 1993  Targets claimants at greatest risk of exhausting UI benefits  Refers them to reemployment services early in their unemployment period

Reemployment Profiling Research Study

 Purpose:  Evaluate accuracy of profiling models in predicting UI benefit exhaustion  Develop best practices on implementing model  Recent approval by OMB to collect data  Result due end of 2006

Reemployment AutoCoder

 Software assigns more accurate occupational codes to workers filing UI claims.

 Better matches of UI beneficiaries’ skills with available jobs expected.

 May improve states’ profiling models.

Closing

“Unemployment insurance is a dynamic program which needs to keep adapting to the changing character of a tremendously complex economy. It reflects the problems presented by new and different types of unemployment growing out of advancing technology. These problems must usually be solved on the basis of incomplete information and in the midst of conflicting interests.”

Unemployment Insurance in the American Economy, Haber and Murray, 1966.